Match Info

Copa Sudamericana - Play Offs - 1/16-finals

Date: 16 July 2025, Wednesday

Location: Estadio Alejandro Villanueva (Lima)

Referee: Roldan W. (Col)

Where to Watch on TV:


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Usa	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports US Espanol, Fanatiz
Venezuela	Disney+, DSports 1, ESPN, Inter


	Alianza Lima		Grêmio

	1	X	2
	2.4	3.1	3.2	Watch
	2.25	3	3.4
	2.38	2.92	3.15	Watch
	2.48	3	3.31
				Watch
	2.3	2.9	3.3	Watch
	2.45	2.93	3.21	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.38 ↓ (2.42)	2.98 ↓ (3.05)	3.26 ↑ (3.07)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 3.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Alianza Lima
39.6%

Draw
31.6%

Grêmio
28.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.8%

30.7%

30.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.1%

30.1%

31.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Alianza Lima has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.8%)

Grêmio has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Alianza Lima than the current prediction. (-1.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Grêmio than the current prediction. (+2.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	77.8%	22.2%

Alianza Lima - Grêmio Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Grêmio will win (votes: 2 - 22.2%). It will Tie (votes: 7 - 77.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 50.6% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - Grêmio (1.55) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DNB - Grêmio (2.18) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Grêmio (votes: 2 - 50%). Tie (votes: 2 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
23. Viscarra G. (G) 5. Zambrano C. (C) 4. Noriega E. 6. Garces R. 21. Trauco M. 7. Gaibor F. 8. Castillo E. 27. Quevedo K. 19. Cantero A. 22. Enrique G. 34. Paolo Guerrero	1. Tiago Volpi (G) 34. Igor Serrote 3. Wagner Leonardo 4. Walter Kannemann (C) 23. Marlon 20. Villasanti M. 17. Dodi 47. Alysson 8. Edenilson 16. Aravena A. 77. Andre Henrique
Substitutes
17. Archimbaud J. 9. Barcos H. 28. Burlamaqui A. 1. Campos A. (G) 51. Cari P. 15. Castillo J. 3. Estrada J. 25. Gentile G. 14. Huaman M. 13. Lagos R. 18. Pena S. 16. Succar M.	80. Alex Santana 9. Amuzu F. 15. Camilo Reijers 10. Cristaldo F. 12. Gabriel Grando (G) 53. Gustavo Martins 21. Jemerson 25. Lucas Esteves 11. Monsalve M. 7. Pavon C. 35. Ronald 44. Viery
Coaches
Gorosito N.	Mano Menezes

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
5', Wagner Leonardo 🟨,
23', Cantero A. ↓, Pena S. ↑,
33', Edenilson 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
56', Garces R. 🟨,
56', Quevedo K. ↓, Gentile G. ↑,
57', Gaibor F. ↓, Cari P. ↑,
59', 1 - 0, Gentile G. ⚽,
61', 2 - 0, Castillo E. ⚽, Pena S. (A),
62', Castillo E. 🟨,
66', Villasanti M. ↓, Alex Santana ↑,
66', Edenilson ↓, Monsalve M. ↑,
70', Aravena A. ↓, Pavon C. ↑,
71', Andre Henrique ↓, Amuzu F. ↑,
75', Paolo Guerrero ↓, Barcos H. ↑,
78', Alysson ↓, Ronald ↑,

Preview

1st leg.

At the moment, both teams are looking strong and ready to play.

Alianza Lima may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Alianza Lima will hold a modest advantage in this match.

Recently, there has been no match between the teams.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Alianza Lima
Peruvian Liga 1
12.07.25	Cajamarca - Alianza Lima	0:0 ✺
05.07.25	Alianza Lima - Escuela Municipal Binacional	5:1 ✺
28.06.25	FBC Melgar - Alianza Lima	0:1 ✺
18.06.25	Comerciantes Unidos - Alianza Lima	0:1 ✺
14.06.25	Alianza Lima - Sport Huancayo	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.4 TWWWT
- Grêmio RS
Brazilian Serie A
13.07.25	Cruzeiro - Grêmio	4:1 ✺
Brazilian Recopa Gaucho
08.07.25	Grêmio - EC São José Porto Alegre	2:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
12.06.25	Grêmio - Corinthians	1:1 ✺
01.06.25	Juventude - Grêmio	0:2 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
29.05.25	Grêmio - Sportivo Luqueño	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.3 LWTWW

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