Match Info

NETHERLANDS: Eredivisie - Round 24

Date: 2 March 2025, Sunday

Location: Yanmar Stadion (Almere)

Referee: Gozubuyuk S. (Ned)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	DStv Now, ESPN 1
Argentina	Disney+, ESPN 3
Austria	DAZN
Belgium	Play Sports 1
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Sportklub 3
Brazil	Disney+
Bulgaria	Ring
Canada	Sportsnet+
Chile	Disney+
Colombia	Disney+, ESPN 3
Croatia	SportKlub 3
Cyprus	Cablenet Sports 2, Cablenet Sports 2
Finland	Veikkaus TV
Germany	DAZN 1 Deutsch, Sportdigital FUSSBALL
Greece	Nova Sports 4
India	Eurosport, JioTV app
Israel	Sport 4
Italy	Como TV
Mexico	Disney+
Montenegro	Sportklub 3
Netherlands	Canal+, ESPN 1, ESPN Extra
North-central-america	Disney+ Caribbean
North-macedonia	MaxTV GO, SportKlub 3
Peru	Disney+
Poland	Polsat Sport 2
Russia	TV Start Triumph
Serbia	SportKlub 3
Slovakia	Arena sport 1
South-africa	SuperSport ESPN
Spain	Gol Play, GolStadium
Switzerland	Blue Sport 1, Blue Sport 1, DAZN Switzerland, Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	ESPN App, ESPN+
Venezuela	Disney+, Inter
World	Disney+, Triller TV+


	Almere City		Ajax

	1	X	2
				Watch
	6	4.6	1.49
				Watch
	6.47	4.72	1.5
				Watch
	6.5	4.4	1.44
				Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	6.32 ↓ (8.43)	4.57 ↓ (5.28)	1.48 ↑ (1.34)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Almere City
15%

Draw
20.7%

Ajax
64.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

11.3%

18%

70.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

11.2%

17.8%

71.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Almere City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.7%)

Ajax has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Ajax might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Almere City than the current prediction. (-3.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ajax than the current prediction. (+7.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Ajax could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	5.6%	94.4%

Almere City - Ajax Predictions

Users Predictions: Ajax will win (34 of 36 users predict this - 94.44%).
Confidence interval (95%): 86.95% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Bakker N. (G) 20. Akujobi H. 4. Visus R. 15. Lawrence J. 14. Zagaritis V. 19. Haye T. 8. Tahiri A. 17. Hansen K. 9. Robinet T. (C) 11. Kadile J. 18. Brym C.	16. Matheus (G) 3. Gaaei A. 24. Rugani D. 15. Baas Y. 4. Hato J. 28. Fitz-Jim K. 18. Klaassen D. (C) 8. Taylor K. 23. Berghuis S. 9. Brobbey B. 11. Godts M.
Substitutes
23. Balboa A. 32. de Nijs O. 3. Jacobs Jo. 12. Jasim A. 27. Martins M. 16. Nalic A. 39. Poku E. 7. Providence R. 37. Puriel J. 28. Receveur T. 31. van der Wilt J. (G) 29. Wendlinger J. (G)	17. Edvardsen O. 12. Gorter J. (G) 6. Henderson J. 36. Janse D. 13. Kaplan A. 59. Konadu D. 31. Mokio J. 22. Pasveer R. (G) 2. Rosa L. 20. Traore B. 21. van den Boomen B. 42. Verschuren N.
Coaches
Rijsdijk J.	Farioli F.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
8', 0 - 1, Taylor K. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Fitz-Jim K. ↓, Mokio J. ↑,
54', Lawrence J. 🟨,
56', Godts M. ↓, Edvardsen O. ↑,
72', Berghuis S. ↓, Henderson J. ↑,
83', Brym C. ↓, Providence R. ↑,
83', Hansen K. ↓, Nalic A. ↑,
83', Tahiri A. ↓, Jasim A. ↑,
84', Kadile J. ↓, de Nijs O. ↑,
90+1', Taylor K. ↓, Rosa L. ↑,

Preview

An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Eerste Divisie and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )).

Almere City is in unsatisfactory shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Ajax is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Ajax could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Ajax is absolute favorite.

There will not play in Almere City: Barbet T. (Injury)

There will not play in Ajax: Gorter J. (Injury) Regeer Y. (Ankle Injury) Weghorst W. (Toe Injury) van Axel Dongen A. (Ankle Injury) van den Boomen B. (Back Injury)

There are questionable in Ajax: Rasmussen C. (Injury) Traore B. (Injury)

Last 4 head-to-head matches Almere City won 0 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 3:9 (average 0.8:2.3).

Including matches at home between the teams Almere City won 0 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 3:3 (average 1.5:1.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Almere City FC
Dutch Eredivisie
22.02.25	Feyenoord - Almere City	2:1 ✺
16.02.25	NEC Nijmegen - Almere City	2:2 ✺
09.02.25	Utrecht - Almere City	0:1 ✺
02.02.25	Almere City - Waalwijk	1:4 ✺
19.01.25	Almere City - Heracles Almelo	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 21.4 LTWLL
- Ajax Amsterdam
Dutch Eredivisie
23.02.25	Ajax - Go Ahead Eagles	2:0 ✺
UEFA Europa League
20.02.25	Ajax - Saint-Gilloise	1:2 ET ✺
Dutch Eredivisie
16.02.25	Ajax - Heracles Almelo	4:0 ✺
UEFA Europa League
13.02.25	Saint-Gilloise - Ajax	0:2 ✺
Dutch Eredivisie
09.02.25	Fortuna Sittard - Ajax	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.8 WLWWW

Latest Head to Head

Dutch Eredivisie
15.12.24	Ajax - Almere City	3:0
12.05.24	Ajax - Almere City	3:0
12.11.23	Almere City - Ajax	2:2
Club Friendly
31.07.22	Almere City - Ajax	1:1

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