Match Info

EUROPE: Europa League - Play Offs - 1/16-finals

Date: 20 February 2025, Thursday

Location: Johan Cruijff Arena (Amsterdam)

Referee: Kavanagh C. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	DStv Now, New World Sport App, SuperSport GOtv Football, SuperSport MaXimo 2, SuperSport OTT 2, SuperSport Premier League
Albania	SuperSport 2
Argentina	ESPN 2
Armenia	Fast Sports
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 3, TOD
Australia	Stan Sport
Austria	Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Austria 3
Belgium	VRT Canvas
Bulgaria	Ring, Voyo
Canada	DAZN Canada
China	iQIYI, ZhiBo8
Colombia	ESPN 2
Croatia	Arena Sport 2, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 6, Cytavision Sports 6
Czech-republic	Sport 2
Denmark	Disney+
Finland	Viaplay
France	Canal+ Live 6
Georgia	Setanta Sports 2
Germany	RTL+
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 4
Hong-kong	beIN Sports 1, Now Player
Iceland	Stod 2 Sport 2
India	JioTV app, Sony LIV, Sony Sports TEN 1
Indonesia	beIN Connect, Vidio
Israel	Sport 4
Italy	NOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport 254
Laos	beIN Connect
Malaysia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1, Sooka
Malta	GO TV, TSN Malta 4
Mexico	Fox Sports
Montenegro	Arena Premium 3
Netherlands	Canal+, Sporza, Ziggo Sport
New-zealand	DAZN New Zealand
Nigeria	Supersport Maximo 2, SuperSport OTT 2
North-central-america	RUSH Sports 1 Caribbean
North-macedonia	Arena Premium 3
Norway	Viaplay
Philippines	beIN Connect
Poland	Polsat Sport Premium 5
Portugal	DAZN 2
Russia	Okko Sport
Serbia	Arena Premium 2, Arena Premium 3
Singapore	beIN Sport 1, StarHub TV+
South-africa	SuperSport OTT 2, SuperSport Premier League
South-america	ESPN 2 South, ViX Latin America
South-korea	SPOTV Prime+
Spain	M+ Liga de Campeones 12
Sweden	Disney+
Switzerland	Blue Sport 1, Blue Sport 1, Blue Sport 4, Blue Sport 4
Thailand	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3, beIN SPORTS MAX
Turkey	Tabii
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 8, MEGOGO Sport
United-kingdom	Discovery+ UK, TNT Sports 5
Usa	Paramount+
Venezuela	Inter
Vietnam	ON Plus
World	Disney+


	Ajax		Saint-Gilloise

	1	X	2
	2.3	3.3	3.1
				Watch
	2.35	3.46	3.21
	2.3	3.5	3
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.32 ↑ (1.92)	3.42 ↓ (4.12)	3.1 ↓ (3.96)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.6%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Ajax
41.3%

Draw
27.9%

Saint-Gilloise
30.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

51.3%

23.9%

24.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

50%

24.5%

25.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ajax has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Ajax's form might have worsened.

Saint-Gilloise has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Saint-Gilloise's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ajax than the current prediction. (+8.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Ajax, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Saint-Gilloise than the current prediction. (-5.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Saint-Gilloise, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
80%	11.2%	8.7%

Ajax - Saint Gilloise Predictions

Users Predictions: Ajax will win (64 of 80 users predict this - 80%).
Confidence interval (95%): 71.23% – 88.77%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Pasveer R. (G) 2. Rosa L. 37. Sutalo J. 24. Rugani D. 4. Hato J. 31. Mokio J. 18. Klaassen D. (C) 28. Fitz-Jim K. 29. Rasmussen C. 23. Berghuis S. 17. Edvardsen O.	49. Moris A. (C) 25. Khalaili A. 5. Mac Allister K. 16. Burgess C. 28. Machida K. 27. Sadiki N. 23. Boufal S. 4. Rasmussen M. 9. Ivanovic F. 12. David P. 22. Niang O.
Substitutes
3. Gaaei A. 11. Godts M. 6. Henderson J. 36. Janse D. 13. Kaplan A. 59. Konadu D. 52. Reverson P. (G) 51. Setford C. (G) 63. Steur S. 8. Taylor K. 20. Traore B. 42. Verschuren N.	10. Ait El Hadj A. 32. Asri M. 33. Berradi S. 1. Chambaere V. (G) 77. Fuseini M. 14. Imbrechts J. (G) 48. Leysen F. 13. Rodriguez K. 26. Sykes R. 6. Van De Perre K.
Coaches
Farioli F.	Pocognoli S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
16', 0 - 1, Mac Allister K. ⚽, Boufal S. (A),
25', Klaassen D. 🟥,
28', 0 - 2, David P. (Pen),
33', Rosa L. 🟨,
41', Rasmussen C. ↓, Taylor K. ↑,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Berghuis S. ↓, Gaaei A. ↑,
46', Rugani D. ↓, Kaplan A. ↑,
46', Edvardsen O. ↓, Traore B. ↑,
60', Gaaei A. 🟨,
60', Boufal S. 🟨,
60', Henderson J. 🟨,
61', Rosa L. ↓, Godts M. ↑,
61', Boufal S. ↓, Ait El Hadj A. ↑,
62', Farioli F. 🟨,
71', Kaplan A. 🟨,
73', Sadiki N. 🟨,
73', David P. ↓, Rodriguez K. ↑,
Extra Time (1 - 0)
91', Mokio J. ↓, Henderson J. ↑,
93', Khalaili A. 🟨,
93', 1 - 2, Taylor K. (Pen),
94', Khalaili A. ↓, Fuseini M. ↑,
94', Rasmussen M. ↓, Van De Perre K. ↑,
99', Mac Allister K. 🟨,
100', Taylor K. 🟨,
105', Burgess C. 🟨,
106', Burgess C. ↓, Sykes R. ↑,
106', Sadiki N. ↓, Leysen F. ↑,
120+5', Van De Perre K. 🟨,
120+5', Hato J. 🟨,

Preview

2nd leg. 1st leg result: 2-0.

Ajax in the last match got series victories and it is in a super good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 5).

Recent matches Union SG is playing uncertain (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Ajax will have a small advantage in this match.

There will not play in Ajax: Baas Y. (Illness) Kaplan A. (Illness) Matheus (Inactive) Regeer Y. (Ankle Injury) Taylor K. (Illness) Weghorst W. (Toe Injury) Wijndal O. (Knee Injury) van Axel Dongen A. (Ankle Injury) van den Boomen B. (Back Injury)

There will not play in Union SG: Van De Perre K. (Muscle Injury)

There are questionable in Ajax: Henderson J. (Muscle Injury)

There are questionable in Union SG: Castro-Montes A. (Injury)

Last 1 head-to-head matches Ajax won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 2:0

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ajax Amsterdam
Dutch Eredivisie
16.02.25	Ajax - Heracles Almelo	4:0 ✺
UEFA Europa League
13.02.25	Saint-Gilloise - Ajax	0:2 ✺
Dutch Eredivisie
09.02.25	Fortuna Sittard - Ajax	0:2 ✺
02.02.25	Ajax - Feyenoord	2:1 ✺
UEFA Europa League
30.01.25	Ajax - Galatasaray	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.8 WWWWW
- Royale Union Saint-Gilloise
Belgian Jupiler Pro League
16.02.25	Saint-Gilloise - KV Mechelen	0:1 ✺
UEFA Europa League
13.02.25	Saint-Gilloise - Ajax	0:2 ✺
Belgian Jupiler Pro League
09.02.25	Kortrijk - Saint-Gilloise	1:2 ✺
02.02.25	Saint-Gilloise - Sint-Truidense	2:1 ✺
UEFA Europa League
30.01.25	Glasgow Rangers - Saint-Gilloise	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.1 LLWWL

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Europa League
13.02.25	Saint-Gilloise - Ajax	0:2

Upcoming Matches