Match Info

KNVB Beker - 1/8-finals

Date: 14 January 2026, Wednesday

Location: Yanmar Stadion (Almere)

Referee: Oostrom I. (Ned)

Where to Watch on TV:


Netherlands	Canal+, ESPN 4, ESPN Extra


	Almere City		Telstar

	1	X	2
	2.82	3.6	2.25	Watch
	2.92	3.55	2.22
	2.86	3.71	2.25	Watch
	2.8	3.4	2.25
	2.85	3.57	2.28	Watch
	2.85	3.6	2.28
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.85 ↑ (2.5)	3.57 ↑ (3.45)	2.26 ↓ (2.64)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 6.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Almere City
32.7%

Draw
26.1%

Telstar
41.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.4%

27.1%

35.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.1%

25.9%

34%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Almere City has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.7%)

Telstar has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Telstar's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Almere City than the current prediction. (+6.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Almere City, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Telstar than the current prediction. (-7.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Telstar, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
9.1%	27.3%	63.6%

Almere City - Telstar Predictions

Users Predictions: 11 users predict this event. Almere City will win (votes: 1 - 9.1%). Telstar will win (votes: 7 - 63.6%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 27.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Telstar: 35.2% – 92%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Almere City (votes: 1 - 50%). Telstar (votes: 1 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Almere City won 1.

Almere City is in fantastic form, winning most of its recent matches (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Telstar has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Telstar may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Telstar has had a series of away games.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

There are questionable in Almere City: Huisman B. (Ankle Injury)

There are questionable in Telstar: Owusu T. (Inactive)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Almere City won 7 matches, drew 7 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 33:31. (average 1.7:1.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Almere City won 3 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 15:13. (average 1.5:1.3).

Outrights of Dutch KNVB Beker for now

Telstar: 1.4% Almere City: 0.88%

Last Results with these Odds

Telstar - the odds 2.64 are the expected chance of winning is 35.49%, but this team recently wins 25% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Almere City FC
Dutch Eerste Divisie
20.12.25	Almere City - Emmen	4:2 ✺
Dutch KNVB Beker
17.12.25	Fortuna Sittard - Almere City	2:3 ✺
Dutch Eerste Divisie
12.12.25	Jong PSV - Almere City	2:3 ✺
05.12.25	Almere City - Jong Ajax	3:2 ✺
29.11.25	FC Oss - Almere City	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18.2 WWWWW
- SC Telstar
Dutch Eredivisie
11.01.26	Telstar - Ajax	2:3 ✺
Club Friendly
05.01.26	Málaga - Telstar	Canceled ✺
05.01.26	Marbella - Telstar	Canceled ✺
Dutch Eredivisie
20.12.25	NAC Breda - Telstar	0:1 ✺
Dutch KNVB Beker
16.12.25	HSV Hoek - Telstar	1:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10 L??WW

Latest Head to Head

Dutch Eerste Divisie
27.01.23	Telstar - Almere City	0:1
09.09.22	Almere City - Telstar	0:1
30.01.22	Almere City - Telstar	0:0
10.09.21	Telstar - Almere City	1:1
12.04.21	Almere City - Telstar	1:1
11.12.20	Telstar - Almere City	2:3
31.01.20	Almere City - Telstar	4:2

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