Match Info

Europa League - League phase - Round 1

Date: 16 September 2026, Wednesday

Location: Stadium of Light (Sunderland)

Referee: Pignard J. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Sunderland		AZ Alkmaar

	1	X	2
	1.48	4.33	6.50
	1.50	4.33	6.25
	1.50	4.20	6.50
	1.51	4.41	7.02
	1.52	4.6	6.34	Watch
	1.48	4.35	6.95
	1.51	4.36	6.18
	1.52	4.50	6.80
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.5 ↓ (1.73)	4.39 ↑ (3.97)	6.57 ↑ (4.5)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sunderland
63.6%

Draw
21.8%

AZ Alkmaar
14.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

54.9%

23.9%

21.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

64.4%

28%

18%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sunderland has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Sunderland's performance.

AZ Alkmaar has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and AZ Alkmaar might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sunderland than the current prediction. (+0.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for AZ Alkmaar than the current prediction. (+3.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
82.6%	4.3%	13%

Sunderland - AZ Alkmaar Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.75 - Sunderland (1.60) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Sunderland (1.13) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - under (1.99) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

New Consensus by Tipsters:

BTTS - yes (1.95) (votes: 88%) ⭐ Best Value.

Users Predictions: Sunderland will win (18 of 22 users predict this - 81.82%).
Confidence interval (95%): 65.7% – 97.94%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Sunderland will win (3 of 4 users predict this - 75%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Sunderland (votes: 5 - 83.3%). Tie (votes: 1 - 16.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Roefs R. (G) 20. Mukiele N. 4. Danso K. 15. Alderete O. 17. Mandava R. 34. Xhaka G. (C) 27. Sadiki N. 32. Hume T. 28. Le Fee E. 39. Fofana M. 18. Isidor W.	28. De Busser J. (G) 22. Dijkstra E. 3. Goes W. 4. Schouten L. 5. Chavez Garcia M. 8. Clasie J. (C) 6. Koopmeiners P. 24. Oufkir A. 10. Smit K. 11. Daal R. 9. Meerdink M.
Substitutes
29. Ahoka J. 10. Angulo N. 5. Ballard D. 9. Brobbey B. 48. Jones J. 6. Methalie D. 12. Meunier T. 21. Moore S. (G) 13. O'Nien L. 77. Proctor T. 11. Rigg C. 57. Tuterov T.	17. Byskov V. 34. de Wit M. 29. Hoedt W. 19. Hornkamp J. 31. Ichihara R. 18. Kovacs B. 21. Kwakman D. 2. Maikuma S. 1. Owusu-Oduro R. (G) 14. Stengs C. 7. Weslley Patati
Coaches
Le Bris R.	Echteld L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
22', Hume T. 🟨,
30', Alderete O. 🟨,
39', Oufkir A. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Oufkir A. ↓, Weslley Patati ↑,
52', Alderete O. ↓, Ballard D. ↑,
59', Smit K. ↓, Byskov V. ↑,
64', Weslley Patati 🟨,
66', 1 - 0, Le Fee E. (Penalty Awarded),
67', Hume T. ↓, Meunier T. ↑,
67', Fofana M. ↓, Brobbey B. ↑,
67', Isidor W. ↓, Angulo N. ↑,
72', Mukiele N. 🟨,
76', Clasie J. ↓, Kwakman D. ↑,
83', Meerdink M. ↓, Hornkamp J. ↑,
83', Schouten L. ↓, Stengs C. ↑,
84', Danso K. ↓, Rigg C. ↑,

Preview

Recent performances by Sunderland have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

AZ is in superb shape, having picked up a string of victories recently (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Sunderland may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Sunderland is a strong favorite.

There will not play in Sunderland: Angulo J. (Off the roster) Browne A. (Off the roster) Diarra H. (Hamstring Injury) Ellborg M. (Off the roster) Mundle R. (Knee Injury) Ta Bi J. (Off the roster) Talbi C. (Off the roster)

There will not play in AZ: Kasius D. (Groin Injury) Resink S. (Knee Injury) Zoet J. (Off the roster)

Recently, there has been no match between the teams.

Outrights of UEFA Europa League for now

Sunderland: 6.26% AZ Alkmaar: 1.82%

Standings

League phase

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
15	Sunderland	1	1	0	0	1:0	1	3
26	AZ Alkmaar	1	0	0	1	0:1	-1	0

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sunderland AFC
English Premier League
12.09.26	Sunderland - Arsenal	0:2 ✺
English League Cup
08.09.26	Sunderland - Hull City	1:0 ✺
English Premier League
05.09.26	Brentford - Sunderland	1:1 ✺
30.08.26	Sunderland - Fulham	1:0 ✺
22.08.26	Ipswich Town - Sunderland	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11 LWTWL
- AZ Alkmaar
Dutch Eredivisie
11.09.26	AZ Alkmaar - Willem II	1:1 ✺
06.09.26	Heerenveen - AZ Alkmaar	2:3 ✺
29.08.26	AZ Alkmaar - Go Ahead Eagles	5:2 ✺
22.08.26	Fortuna Sittard - AZ Alkmaar	0:2 ✺
15.08.26	Utrecht - AZ Alkmaar	1:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.6 TWWWW

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