Match Info

Champions League - Play Offs - Semi-finals

Date: 29 April 2025, Tuesday

Location: Emirates Stadium (London)

Referee: Vincic S. (Slo)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Arsenal		Paris Saint-Germain

	1	X	2
	2.15	3.4	3.4
	2.15	3.4	3.3
	2.18	3.5	3.4	Watch
	2.19	3.57	3.5
	2.19	3.51	3.47	Watch
	2.15	3.3	3.4
	2.15	3.49	3.58
	2.18	3.5	3.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.17 ↑ (2.14)	3.46 ↓ (3.57)	3.43 ↓ (3.46)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Arsenal
44.3%

Draw
27.7%

Paris Saint-Germain
28%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45.1%

27%

27.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.5%

27.4%

28.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Arsenal has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.8%)

Paris Saint-Germain has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Arsenal than the current prediction. (+0.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Paris Saint-Germain than the current prediction. (+0.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
74.2%	9.3%	16.5%

Arsenal - Paris Saint Germain Predictions

Users Predictions: 95 users predict this event. Arsenal will win (votes: 72 - 75.8%). PSG will win (votes: 15 - 15.8%). It will Tie (votes: 8 - 8.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Arsenal: 67.2% – 84.4%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTS - yes (votes: 7 - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

TQ, OT - Arsenal (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

AH +0.5 - PSG (1.71) (votes: 3 - 60%) .

AH -1 - Arsenal (3.26) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH 0, 1st Half - Arsenal (1.64) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - draw (1.74) (votes: 2 - 50%) .

O/U 2.25 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DNB - Arsenal (1.57) (votes: 1 - 50%) .

1X2, 1st Half - Arsenal (2.69) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Arsenal will win (35 of 44 users predict this - 79.55%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 57 Selected Experts predict this event. Arsenal (votes: 44 - 77.2%). PSG (votes: 13 - 22.8%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Raya D. (G) 12. Timber J. 2. Saliba W. 15. Kiwior J. 49. Lewis-Skelly M. 8. Odegaard M. (C) 41. Rice D. 23. Merino M. 7. Saka B. 19. Trossard L. 11. Martinelli G.	1. Donnarumma G. (G) 2. Hakimi A. 5. Marquinhos (C) 51. Pacho W. 25. Mendes N. 87. Neves J. 17. Vitinha 8. Ruiz F. 14. Doue D. 10. Dembele O. 7. Kvaratskhelia K.
Substitutes
37. Butler-Oyedeji N. 45. Henry-Francis J. 46. Kabia I. 32. Neto (G) 53. Nwaneri E. 36. Setford T. (G) 30. Sterling R. 3. Tierney K. 4. White B. 17. Zinchenko O.	29. Barcola B. 35. Beraldo L. 21. Hernandez L. 3. Kimpembe P. 19. Lee Kang-In 24. Mayulu S. 49. Mbaye I. 9. Ramos G. 39. Safonov M. (G) 80. Tenas A. (G) 33. Zaire-Emery W.
Coaches
Arteta M.	Luis Enrique

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
4', 0 - 1, Dembele O. ⚽, Kvaratskhelia K. (A),
10', Trossard L. 🟨,
43', Saka B. 🟨,
44', Hakimi A. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Neves J. 🟨,
70', Dembele O. ↓, Barcola B. ↑,
76', Doue D. ↓, Ramos G. ↑,
83', Timber J. ↓, White B. ↑,
89', Neves J. ↓, Zaire-Emery W. ↑,
90', Odegaard M. ↓, Nwaneri E. ↑,

Preview

1st leg.

Arsenal is in real good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Recent matches PSG is playing uncertain (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Arsenal could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Arsenal will have a small advantage in this match.

There will not play in Arsenal: Calafiori R. (Knee Injury) Gabriel (Hamstring Injury) Gabriel Jesus (Knee Injury) Havertz K. (Hamstring Injury) Jorginho (Chest Injury) Partey T. (Yellow Cards) Tomiyasu T. (Knee Injury)

Last 4 head-to-head matches Arsenal won 2 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 10:4 (average 2.5:1).

Including matches at home between the teams Arsenal won 2 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 9:3 (average 3:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Arsenal FC
English Premier League
23.04.25	Arsenal - Crystal Palace	2:2 ✺
20.04.25	Ipswich Town - Arsenal	0:4 ✺
UEFA Champions League
16.04.25	Real Madrid - Arsenal	1:2 ✺
English Premier League
12.04.25	Arsenal - Brentford	1:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
08.04.25	Arsenal - Real Madrid	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.5 TWWTW
- Paris Saint-Germain
French Ligue 1
25.04.25	Paris Saint-Germain - Nice	1:3 ✺
22.04.25	Nantes - Paris Saint-Germain	1:1 ✺
19.04.25	Paris Saint-Germain - Le Havre	2:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
15.04.25	Aston Villa - Paris Saint-Germain	3:2 ✺
09.04.25	Paris Saint-Germain - Aston Villa	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.6 LTWLW

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Champions League
01.10.24	Arsenal - Paris Saint-Germain	2:0
International Champions Cup
28.07.18	Arsenal - Paris Saint-Germain	5:1
UEFA Champions League
23.11.16	Arsenal - Paris Saint-Germain	2:2
13.09.16	Paris Saint-Germain - Arsenal	1:1

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