Match Info

Champions League - Play Offs - Quarter-finals

Date: 8 April 2025, Tuesday

Location: Emirates Stadium (London)

Referee: Peljto I. (Bih)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Arsenal		Real Madrid

	1	X	2
	2	3.5	3.6
	2.25	3.2	3.3
	2.08	3.7	3.55	Watch
	2.27	3.45	3.2
	2.2	3.38	3.58	Watch
	2.2	3.25	3.4
	2.18	3.6	3.39
	2.08	3.7	3.55
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.16 ↓ (2.25)	3.47 ↓ (3.55)	3.45 ↑ (3.21)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Arsenal
44.5%

Draw
27.6%

Real Madrid
27.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.9%

27.2%

30%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45.6%

28.9%

28.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Arsenal has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.6%)

Real Madrid has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Arsenal than the current prediction. (+1.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Real Madrid than the current prediction. (+0.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
36%	22%	42%

Arsenal - Real Madrid Predictions

Users Predictions: 100 users predict this event. Arsenal will win (votes: 36 - 36%). Real will win (votes: 42 - 42%). It will Tie (votes: 22 - 22%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Real: 32.3% – 51.7%. The data is statistically significant.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 26 Selected Experts predict this event. Arsenal (votes: 10 - 38.5%). Real (votes: 12 - 46.2%). Tie (votes: 4 - 15.4%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Real (2.61) (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

AH -0.25 - Arsenal (1.80) (votes: 4 - 66.7%) .

O/U 2 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Real (1.76) (votes: 3 - 75%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

TQ, OT - Real (votes: 1 - 100%) .

EH +2 - Real (1.25) (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

DNB - Real (2.48) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 3.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 45 Selected Experts predict this event. Arsenal (votes: 15 - 33.3%). Real (votes: 26 - 57.8%). Tie (votes: 4 - 8.9%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Raya D. (G) 12. Timber J. 2. Saliba W. 15. Kiwior J. 49. Lewis-Skelly M. 8. Odegaard M. (C) 5. Partey T. 41. Rice D. 7. Saka B. 23. Merino M. 11. Martinelli G.	1. Courtois T. (G) 8. Valverde F. 35. Asencio R. 22. Rudiger A. 4. Alaba D. 11. Rodrygo 10. Modric L. (C) 6. Camavinga E. 5. Bellingham J. 9. Mbappe K. 7. Vinicius Junior
Substitutes
37. Butler-Oyedeji N. 44. Gower J. 20. Jorginho 32. Neto (G) 53. Nwaneri E. 36. Setford T. (G) 3. Tierney K. 19. Trossard L. 4. White B. 17. Zinchenko O.	36. Andres C. 21. Diaz B. 16. Endrick 26. Fran (G) 20. Garcia F. 30. Garcia G. 15. Guler A. 39. Lorenzo 17. Lucas 34. Mestre S. (G) 31. Ramon J. 18. Vallejo J.
Coaches
Arteta M.	Ancelotti C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (3 - 0)
54', Partey T. 🟨,
58', 1 - 0, Rice D. ⚽,
69', Camavinga E. 🟨,
70', 2 - 0, Rice D. ⚽,
71', Modric L. ↓, Lucas ↑,
74', Saka B. ↓, Trossard L. ↑,
75', 3 - 0, Merino M. ⚽, Lewis-Skelly M. (A),
79', Alaba D. ↓, Garcia F. ↑,
80', Rice D. ↓, Tierney K. ↑,
85', Rodrygo ↓, Diaz B. ↑,
90+1', Timber J. ↓, White B. ↑,
90+4', Camavinga E. 🟨,

Preview

1st leg.

Arsenal is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Recent matches Real is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Real could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Arsenal will have a small advantage in this match.

There will not play in Arsenal: Calafiori R. (Knee Injury) Gabriel (Hamstring Injury) Gabriel Jesus (Knee Injury) Havertz K. (Hamstring Injury) Sterling R. (Yellow Cards) Tomiyasu T. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Real: Carvajal D. (Knee Injury) Ceballos D. (Muscle Injury) Eder Militao (Knee Injury) Lunin A. (Calf Injury) Mendy F. (Hamstring Injury) Tchouameni A. (Yellow Cards)

Last 1 head-to-head matches Arsenal won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 2:3

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Arsenal FC
English Premier League
05.04.25	Everton - Arsenal	1:1 ✺
01.04.25	Arsenal - Fulham	2:1 ✺
16.03.25	Arsenal - Chelsea	1:0 ✺
UEFA Champions League
12.03.25	Arsenal - PSV Eindhoven	2:2 ✺
English Premier League
09.03.25	Manchester United - Arsenal	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.3 TWWTT
- Real Madrid
Spanish LaLiga
05.04.25	Real Madrid - Valencia	1:2 ✺
Spanish Copa del Rey
01.04.25	Real Madrid - Real Sociedad	4:4 ET ✺
Spanish LaLiga
29.03.25	Real Madrid - Leganés	3:2 ✺
15.03.25	Villarreal - Real Madrid	1:2 ✺
UEFA Champions League
12.03.25	Atlético Madrid - Real Madrid	1:1 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.3 LLWWW

Latest Head to Head

International Champions Cup
23.07.19	Real Madrid - Arsenal	3:2 penalties

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