Match Info

Champions League - Play Offs - Quarter-finals

Date: 16 April 2025, Wednesday

Location: Estadio Santiago Bernabéu (Madrid)

Referee: Letexier F. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	CANAL+ Sport 2, SuperSport Football Plus, SuperSport MaXimo 1, SuperSport Premier League
Albania	Tring Sport 1
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 1, beIN Sports MENA English 1, Q Arena Asia
Australia	Stan Sport
Austria	DAZN 2, Sky Sport Austria 1
Azerbaijan	CBC Sport
Belgium	Pickx+ Sports 2, Pickx+ Sports 2, RTL Club, RTL Play, VTM 2
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Premium 1, Arena Sport 1
Bulgaria	BTV Action, Voyo
Chile	ESPN Premium
Colombia	Disney+, ESPN
Croatia	Arena Sport 1, HRT 2
Cyprus	Cytavision Sports 3, Cytavision Sports 3
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 3
Denmark	TV3+, Viaplay
Finland	MTV Katsomo+, MTV Urheilu 1
France	CANAL+ France, Canal+ Live 1, Free
Georgia	Setanta Sports 1, Silk Universal
Germany	DAZN 1 Deutsch, DAZN 2 Bar Deutsch, DAZN 2
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 2, MEGA
Hong-kong	beIN Sports 3
Hungary	RTL+
Iceland	Stod 2 Sport 2
India	JioTV app, Sony LIV, Sony Sports TEN 2, Sony Sports TEN 3, Sony Sports TEN 4
Indonesia	beIN Sports 1
Ireland	RTE 2, RTE Player
Israel	5 SPORT Israel
Italy	SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport 4K, Sky Sport Uno, TV8
Japan	Wowow Prime
Kazakhstan	Qazsport
Kosovo	ART Sport 1
Malaysia	beIN Sports 3, Sooka
Malta	GO TV, TSN Malta 7
Mexico	Caliente TV App, Caliente TV
Netherlands	Ziggo Sport
Nigeria	SuperSport Football Plus, Supersport Maximo 1
North-central-america	ESPN Norte, RUSH Sports 1 Caribbean, RUSH Sports 2 Caribbean
North-macedonia	TDM Desporto
Norway	TV2 Sport Premium
Papua-new-guinea	TVWan Sports
Peru	Disney+, ESPN
Poland	Canal+ Extra 1
Portugal	Sport TV5
Romania	Digi Online, Digi Sport 1, Prima Sport 1
Russia	Okko Sport
Serbia	Arena Premium 1, RTS 1, RTS Serbia 1
Singapore	beIN Sports 3
Slovakia	Kanal A, Voyo
South-america	ESPN South
South-korea	SPOTV Prime 2
Spain	DAZN Espana, M+ Liga de Campeones, Movistar Plus+
Suriname	ATV Suriname
Sweden	Viaplay
Switzerland	Blue Sport 1, Blue Sport 1, RTS 2, RTS 2, RTS Sport, RTS Sport, SRF 2, SRF 2, SRF Play, SRF Play
Taiwan	ELTA Sports 3
Thailand	AIS PLAY, beIN Sports 1
Turkey	Tabii
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 2
United-kingdom	Discovery+ UK, Sport 24 International, TNT Sports 1, TNT Sports Ultimate
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	Paramount+, Sport 24 At Sea, TUDN, Univision
Venezuela	Disney+, ESPN
World	Disney+, VIX App


	Real Madrid		Arsenal

	1	X	2
	1.75	4	4.2
	1.72	4.1	4.33
	1.8	4.15	4.15	Watch
	1.8	4.22	4.23
	1.79	4.19	4.32	Watch
	1.75	4	4.33
	1.82	4.25	4.25
	1.8	4.15	4.15
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.78 ↓ (2.23)	4.13 ↑ (3.3)	4.25 ↑ (3.15)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 2%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Real Madrid
54.1%

Draw
23.3%

Arsenal
22.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42%

28.3%

29.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.8%

29.5%

28.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Real Madrid has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+12.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Real Madrid's performance.

Arsenal has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Arsenal might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Real Madrid than the current prediction. (-10.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Real Madrid that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Arsenal than the current prediction. (+5.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Arsenal could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
88.4%	6.5%	5.2%

Real Madrid - Arsenal Predictions

Users Predictions: 153 users predict this event. Real will win (votes: 136 - 88.9%). Arsenal will win (votes: 7 - 4.6%). It will Tie (votes: 10 - 6.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Real: 83.9% – 93.9%. The data is statistically significant.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.75 - over (votes: 4 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

TQ, OT - Real (votes: 4 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

DC - Real (1.22) (votes: 2 - 50%) .

BTS - yes (votes: 1 - 50%) .

O/U 2, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -0.75 - Arsenal (4.98) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DNB - Arsenal (3.01) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -0.5 - Real (1.79) (votes: 1 - 50%) .

1X2, 1st Half - Real (2.24) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Real Madrid will win (73 of 81 users predict this - 90.12%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 94 Selected Experts predict this event. Real (votes: 81 - 86.2%). Arsenal (votes: 9 - 9.6%). Tie (votes: 4 - 4.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Courtois T. (G) 17. Lucas (C) 35. Asencio R. 22. Rudiger A. 4. Alaba D. 8. Valverde F. 14. Tchouameni A. 5. Bellingham J. 11. Rodrygo 9. Mbappe K. 7. Vinicius Junior	22. Raya D. (G) 12. Timber J. 2. Saliba W. 15. Kiwior J. 49. Lewis-Skelly M. 8. Odegaard M. (C) 5. Partey T. 41. Rice D. 7. Saka B. 23. Merino M. 11. Martinelli G.
Substitutes
19. Ceballos D. 21. Diaz B. 16. Endrick 26. Fran (G) 20. Garcia F. 15. Guler A. 34. Mestre S. (G) 10. Modric L. 18. Vallejo J.	37. Butler-Oyedeji N. 44. Gower J. 45. Henry-Francis J. 32. Neto (G) 53. Nwaneri E. 63. Rosiak M. 36. Setford T. (G) 30. Sterling R. 3. Tierney K. 19. Trossard L. 4. White B. 17. Zinchenko O.
Coaches
Ancelotti C.	Arteta M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
4', Alaba D. 🟨,
11', Asencio R. 🟨,
13', Saka B. (Pen),
36', Raya D. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
61', Rodrygo ↓, Ceballos D. ↑,
61', Alaba D. ↓, Garcia F. ↑,
61', Lucas ↓, Endrick ↑,
65', 0 - 1, Saka B. ⚽, Merino M. (A),
67', 1 - 1, Vinicius Junior ⚽,
74', Asencio R. ↓, Modric L. ↑,
75', Mbappe K. ↓, Diaz B. ↑,
77', Saka B. ↓, Trossard L. ↑,
85', Rudiger A. 🟨,
85', Partey T. 🟨,
90+3', 1 - 2, Martinelli G. ⚽, Merino M. (A),
90+5', Timber J. ↓, White B. ↑,
90+5', Martinelli G. ↓, Tierney K. ↑,
90+5', Rice D. ↓, Zinchenko O. ↑,

Preview

2nd leg. 1st leg result: 0-3.

Recent matches Real is playing shaky (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Arsenal is in a first-rate shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Arsenal could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Recently Arsenal have a series of home games.

In this match Real is a favorite.

There will not play in Real: Camavinga E. (Red Card) Carvajal D. (Knee Injury) Eder Militao (Knee Injury) Lunin A. (Calf Injury) Mendy F. (Hamstring Injury)

There will not play in Arsenal: Calafiori R. (Knee Injury) Gabriel (Hamstring Injury) Gabriel Jesus (Knee Injury) Havertz K. (Hamstring Injury) Jorginho (Chest Injury) Tomiyasu T. (Knee Injury)

Last 2 head-to-head matches Real won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 3:5 (average 1.5:2.5).

Including matches at home between the teams Real won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 3:2

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Real Madrid
Spanish LaLiga
13.04.25	Deportivo Alavés - Real Madrid	0:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
08.04.25	Arsenal - Real Madrid	3:0 ✺
Spanish LaLiga
05.04.25	Real Madrid - Valencia	1:2 ✺
Spanish Copa del Rey
01.04.25	Real Madrid - Real Sociedad	4:4 ET ✺
Spanish LaLiga
29.03.25	Real Madrid - Leganés	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.8 WLLLW
- Arsenal FC
English Premier League
12.04.25	Arsenal - Brentford	1:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
08.04.25	Arsenal - Real Madrid	3:0 ✺
English Premier League
05.04.25	Everton - Arsenal	1:1 ✺
01.04.25	Arsenal - Fulham	2:1 ✺
16.03.25	Arsenal - Chelsea	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.6 TWTWW

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Champions League
08.04.25	Arsenal - Real Madrid	3:0
International Champions Cup
23.07.19	Real Madrid - Arsenal	3:2 penalties

Upcoming Matches