Match Info

ITALY: SERIE B - ROUND 17

Date: 11 December 2022, Sunday

Location: Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca (Ascoli Piceno)

Referee: Doveri D. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Italy	Sky Sport


	Ascoli		Genoa

	1	X	2
	3.8	3.25	2.05	Watch
	3.75	3.1	2
	4	3.1	2	Watch
	3.75	3.05	2.05
	4.21	3.22	2.08
	4	3.1	2
	4.05	3.18	2.01	Watch
	3.8	3.2	2.02
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.92 ↑ (3.04)	3.15 ↑ (2.89)	2.03 ↓ (2.5)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ascoli
23.9%

Draw
29.8%

Genoa
46.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

30.6%

32.2%

37.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

30.4%

32.4%

37.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ascoli has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Ascoli's form might have worsened.

Genoa has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Genoa's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ascoli than the current prediction. (+6.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Ascoli, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Genoa than the current prediction. (-8.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Genoa, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
17.1%	17.1%	65.7%

Ascoli - Genoa Predictions

Users Predictions: 35 users predict this event. Ascoli will win (votes: 6 - 17.1%). Genoa will win (votes: 23 - 65.7%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 17.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Genoa: 50% – 81.4%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Preview

During this match we will watch a battle between a team from the middle of a tournament table and a leader (ranked 11 and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie B (Play Offs: Semi~finals)).

Ascoli has the most likely position - 9 (7.37%), has project points - 51, has currently - 21, has a small chance of relegated (11%), has a chance of prom. playoffs (33%), has a small chance of promoted (9%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

Genoa has the most likely position - 2 (13.6%), has project points - 59, has currently - 26, has a very small chance of relegated (1%), has a good chance of prom. playoffs (55%), has a chance of promoted (32%), has a small chance of win league (8%).

This event has quality 36, importance 34, match rating 35. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

One and the other team are in an unacceptable form.

Genoa will have a poor advantage in this game.

Last 1 head-to-head matches Ascoli won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 2-3.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ascoli Calcio
Italian Serie B
08.12.22	Pisa - Ascoli	2:0 ✺
04.12.22	Ascoli - Como	3:3 ✺
27.11.22	Südtirol-Alto Adige - Ascoli	2:2 ✺
11.11.22	Ascoli - Frosinone	0:1 ✺
05.11.22	Brescia - Ascoli	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.5 LTTLT
- Genoa CFC
Italian Serie B
08.12.22	Genoa - Südtirol-Alto Adige	2:0 ✺
04.12.22	Genoa - Cittadella	0:1 ✺
27.11.22	Perugia - Genoa	1:0 ✺
13.11.22	Genoa - Como	1:1 ✺
07.11.22	Reggina - Genoa	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.5 WLLTL

Latest Head to Head

Coppa Italia
03.12.19	Genoa - Ascoli	3:2

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