Match Info

ITALY: SERIE B - ROUND 15

Date: 4 December 2022, Sunday

Location: Stadio Luigi Ferraris (Genoa)

Referee: Pairetto L. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Italy	Sky Sport


	Genoa		Cittadella

	1	X	2
	1.7	3.5	5.25	Watch
	1.71	3.4	5.25
	1.65	3.5	5.7
	1.7	3.35	5.2
	1.74	3.53	5.81
	1.7	3.3	5.8
	1.72	3.54	5.1	Watch
	1.7	3.5	5.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.7 ↑ (1.59)	3.45 ↓ (3.66)	5.41 ↓ (5.7)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Genoa
55.3%

Draw
27.3%

Cittadella
17.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

58.3%

25.4%

16.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

58.3%

25.4%

16.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Genoa has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3%)

Cittadella has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Genoa than the current prediction. (+3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cittadella than the current prediction. (-1.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
48.3%	31%	20.7%

Genoa - Cittadella Predictions

Users Predictions: 29 users predict this event. Genoa will win (votes: 14 - 48.3%). Cittadella will win (votes: 6 - 20.7%). It will Tie (votes: 9 - 31%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Genoa: 30.1% – 66.5%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Preview

One of which is a team leader another one is from mid-table (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie B (Play Offs: Semi~finals) and 13).

Genoa has the most likely position - 2 (13.49%), has project points - 61, has currently - 23, has a very small chance of relegated (1%), has a good chance of prom. playoffs (53%), has a chance of promoted (35%), has a small chance of win league (11%).

Cittadella has the most likely position - 14 (8.39%), has project points - 46, has currently - 16, has a chance of relegated (26%), has a chance of prom. playoffs (17%), has a very small chance of promoted (4%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

This event has quality 34, importance 42, match rating 38. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Both teams are now playing unstable.

In this match Genoa is certain favorite.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Genoa CFC
Italian Serie B
27.11.22	Perugia - Genoa	1:0 ✺
13.11.22	Genoa - Como	1:1 ✺
07.11.22	Reggina - Genoa	2:1 ✺
29.10.22	Genoa - Brescia	1:1 ✺
22.10.22	Ternana - Genoa	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.3 LTLTW
- AS Cittadella
Italian Serie B
27.11.22	Cittadella - Nuova Cosenza	1:1 ✺
12.11.22	Parma - Cittadella	3:1 ✺
05.11.22	Cittadella - Modena	0:0 ✺
30.10.22	Perugia - Cittadella	0:2 ✺
23.10.22	Palermo - Cittadella	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.4 TLTWT

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