Match Info

ENGLAND: PREMIER LEAGUE - ROUND 10

Date: 29 October 2023, Sunday

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	SuperSport
Australia	Optus Sport
Brazil	ESPN 4
Croatia	Arena Sport
Czech-republic	CANAL+ Sport 5
Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	Viaplay, V Sport
Germany	Sky Sport
Greece	Nova Sports
Netherlands	Viaplay
Norway	Viaplay
Poland	Viaplay
Serbia	Arena Sport
Slovenia	Arena Sport
Sweden	Viaplay, V Sport


	Aston Villa		Luton Town

	1	X	2
	1.29	6	9.5
	1.29	6	9.5
	1.28	6.3	11	Watch
	1.28	6.3	10.3
	1.29	6.35	9.52
	1.25	6.5	10
	1.28	6.05	10.25	Watch
	1.28	6.4	10
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.28 ↓ (1.32)	6.24 ↑ (5.41)	10.01 ↑ (9.08)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Aston Villa
75%

Draw
15.4%

Luton Town
9.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

71.9%

17.6%

10.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

72.6%

17.4%

10.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Aston Villa has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.1%)

Luton Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Aston Villa than the current prediction. (-2.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Luton Town than the current prediction. (+0.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
89.4%	4.5%	6.1%

Aston Villa - Luton Town Predictions

Users Predictions: Aston Villa will win (59 of 66 users predict this - 89.39%).
Confidence interval (95%): 81.96% – 96.82%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Martinez E. (G) 2. Cash M. 4. Konsa E. 14. Torres P. 12. Digne L. 7. McGinn J. (C) 44. Kamara B. 6. Douglas Luiz 22. Zaniolo N. 19. Diaby M. 11. Watkins O.	24. Kaminski T. (G) 12. Kabore I. 15. Mengi T. 4. Lockyer T. (C) 2. Osho G. 45. Doughty A. 7. Ogbene C. 6. Barkley R. 13. Nakamba M. 19. Brown J. 9. Morris C.
Substitutes
31. Bailey L. 16. Chambers C. 32. Dendoncker L. 3. Diego Carlos 47. Iroegbunam T. 17. Lenglet C. 25. Olsen R. (G) 8. Tielemans Y. 9. Traore B.	11. Adebayo E. 14. Chong T. 26. Giles R. 38. Johnson J. 23. Krul T. (G) 47. Luker J. 17. Mpanzu P. 30. Townsend A. 10. Woodrow C.
Coaches
Emery U.	Edwards R.

Preview

One of the leader and one of the outsider will play in this match (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Europa League (Group Stage: ) and 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Championship).

Aston Villa in the last match got series victories and it is in a very good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Luton is in cheap shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Aston Villa could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Aston Villa is the unquestionable favorite.

There will not play in Aston Villa: Buendia E. (Knee Injury) Hause K. (Knee Injury) Mings T. (Knee Injury) Moreno A. (Injury) Ramsey J. (Injury)

There will not play in Luton: Andersen M. (Thigh Injury) Burke R. (Injury) Lokonga A. S. (Thigh Injury) Potts D. (Ankle Injury)

There are questionable in Luton: Bell A. (Thigh Injury) Clark J. (Ankle Injury)

Last 2 head-to-head matches Aston Villa won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 1-5.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Aston Villa
UEFA Europa Conference League
26.10.23	AZ Alkmaar - Aston Villa	1:4 ✺
English Premier League
22.10.23	Aston Villa - West Ham United	4:1 ✺
08.10.23	Wolverhampton Wanderers - Aston Villa	1:1 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
05.10.23	Aston Villa - Zrinjski Mostar	1:0 ✺
English Premier League
30.09.23	Aston Villa - Brighton & Hove Albion	6:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.3 WWTWW
- Luton Town
English Premier League
21.10.23	Nottingham Forest - Luton Town	2:2 ✺
07.10.23	Luton Town - Tottenham Hotspur	0:1 ✺
03.10.23	Luton Town - Burnley	1:2 ✺
30.09.23	Everton - Luton Town	1:2 ✺
English League Cup
26.09.23	Exeter City - Luton Town	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.6 TLLWL

Latest Head to Head

English League Cup
10.08.16	Luton Town - Aston Villa	3:1
Club Friendly
23.07.13	Luton Town - Aston Villa	2:0

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