Match Info

ENGLAND: FA Cup - 1/32-finals

Date: 11 January 2025, Saturday

Location: City Ground (Nottingham)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	DStv Now, SuperSport GOtv Football, SuperSport MaXimo 1
Australia	Optus Sport
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 5, Moja TV
Brazil	Disney+
Bulgaria	Nova Sport
Canada	Sportsnet Now Plus
China	Migu
Croatia	Arena Sport 8, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 6, Cytavision Sports 6
Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	Viaplay, V Sport 1
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 5
Iceland	Viaplay
Laos	beIN Connect
Malaysia	SKY NET Sports 1
Malta	GO TV, TSN Malta 8
Mexico	HBO Max, MAX
Netherlands	Viaplay
North-macedonia	MaxTV GO
Norway	Viaplay, V Sport 3
Philippines	beIN Connect
Portugal	Sport TV2
Sweden	Viaplay, V Sport 1
Thailand	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 4
Usa	ESPN App, ESPN+
Vietnam	FPT Play
World	Disney+


	Nottingham Forest		Luton Town

	1	X	2
	1.45	4.5	6.25
	1.47	4.5	6.5
	1.48	4.5	7	Watch
	1.34	5.11	9.19
	1.45	4.61	6.23	Watch
	1.44	4.33	7
	1.5	4.58	7.05	Watch
	1.48	4.5	7
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.45 ↑ (1.34)	4.58 ↓ (5.06)	7.03 ↓ (9)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Nottingham Forest
65.6%

Draw
20.8%

Luton Town
13.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

70.8%

18.7%

10.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

74.8%

17.7%

9.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Nottingham Forest has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Nottingham Forest's form might have worsened.

Luton Town has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Nottingham Forest than the current prediction. (+9.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Nottingham Forest, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Luton Town than the current prediction. (-3.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
85.7%	14.3%	0%

Nottingham Forest - Luton Town Predictions

Users Predictions: Nottingham Forest will win (6 of 7 users predict this - 85.71%).
Confidence interval (95%): 59.78% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
33. Carlos Miguel (G) 30. Boly W. 4. Morato 15. Toffolo H. 17. da Silva Moreira E. 22. Yates R. (C) 18. Ward-Prowse J. 19. Moreno A. 20. Jota Silva 24. Sosa R. 9. Awoniyi T.	24. Kaminski T. (G) 2. Walters R. 6. McGuinness M. 29. Holmes T. 3. Bell A. 20. Walsh L. 13. Nakamba M. 25. Jones I. 22. Dabo L. 37. Nelson Z. 9. Morris C. (C)
Substitutes
44. Abbott Z. 8. Anderson E. 28. Danilo 16. Dominguez N. 21. Elanga A. 14. Hudson-Odoi C. 31. Milenkovic N. 26. Sels M. (G) 11. Wood Ch.	11. Adebayo E. 5. Andersen M. 19. Brown J. 18. Clark J. 27. Hashioka D. 8. Krauss T. 23. Krul T. (G) 17. Mpanzu P. 10. Woodrow C.
Coaches
Espirito Santo N.	Trollope P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
40', 1 - 0, Yates R. ⚽, Sosa R. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
49', Dabo L. ↓, Clark J. ↑,
57', Nelson Z. ↓, Brown J. ↑,
68', 2 - 0, Sosa R. ⚽, Jota Silva (A),
69', Jones I. ↓, Adebayo E. ↑,
74', Sosa R. ↓, Hudson-Odoi C. ↑,
74', Awoniyi T. ↓, Wood Ch. ↑,
74', Yates R. ↓, Dominguez N. ↑,
74', Jota Silva ↓, Elanga A. ↑,
85', Ward-Prowse J. ↓, Danilo ↑,

Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches Nottingham won 0.

Nottingham in the last match got a series victories and it is an a fantastic form (in the last 5 games wins - 5).

Luton is in unsatisfactory shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Luton could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Nottingham is absolute favorite.

Our prediction for today's Nottingham to win the game is with odds 1.4.

Last 8 head-to-head matches Nottingham won 2 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 9:8 (average 1.1:1).

Including matches at home between the teams Nottingham won 1 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 5:4 (average 1.3:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Nottingham Forest
English Premier League
06.01.25	Wolverhampton Wanderers - Nottingham Forest	0:3 ✺
29.12.24	Everton - Nottingham Forest	0:2 ✺
26.12.24	Nottingham Forest - Tottenham Hotspur	1:0 ✺
21.12.24	Brentford - Nottingham Forest	0:2 ✺
14.12.24	Nottingham Forest - Aston Villa	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 20.7 WWWWW
- Luton Town
English League Championship
06.01.25	Queens Park Rangers - Luton Town	2:1 ✺
01.01.25	Luton Town - Norwich City	0:1 ✺
29.12.24	Swansea City - Luton Town	2:1 ✺
26.12.24	Bristol City - Luton Town	1:0 ✺
20.12.24	Luton Town - Derby County	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.2 LLLLW

Latest Head to Head

English Premier League
16.03.24	Luton Town - Nottingham Forest	1:1
21.10.23	Nottingham Forest - Luton Town	2:2
English League Championship
15.04.22	Luton Town - Nottingham Forest	1:0
23.11.21	Nottingham Forest - Luton Town	0:0
02.03.21	Nottingham Forest - Luton Town	0:1
28.10.20	Luton Town - Nottingham Forest	1:1
19.01.20	Nottingham Forest - Luton Town	3:1

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