Match Info

EUROPE: EUROPA CONFERENCE LEAGUE - GROUP STAGE - ROUND 3

Date: 26 October 2023, Thursday

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	SuperSport
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport
Brazil	ESPN 2
Bulgaria	Ring
Croatia	Arena Sport
Denmark	TV2 Sport
Finland	Viaplay, V Sport Urheilu
Netherlands	ESPN
Norway	Viaplay
Poland	Viaplay
Serbia	Arena Sport
Sweden	Viaplay, V Sport Fotbool
United-kingdom	TNT Sports


	AZ Alkmaar		Aston Villa

	1	X	2
	3.4	3.6	2.05
	3.2	3.4	2.05
	3.25	3.6	2.1	Watch
	3.41	3.7	2.13
	3.41	3.7	2.13
	3.2	3.5	2
	3.3	3.72	2.04
	3.3	3.75	2.13
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.31 ↑ (3.13)	3.62 ↑ (3.51)	2.08 ↓ (2.14)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

AZ Alkmaar
28.5%

Draw
26.1%

Aston Villa
45.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

29.8%

26.6%

43.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

29.3%

27.1%

44.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

AZ Alkmaar has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.3%)

Aston Villa has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for AZ Alkmaar than the current prediction. (+0.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Aston Villa than the current prediction. (-1.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
29%	19.4%	51.6%

AZ Alkmaar - Aston Villa Predictions

Users Predictions: 31 users predict this event. AZ will win (votes: 9 - 29%). Aston Villa will win (votes: 16 - 51.6%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 19.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Aston Villa: 34% – 69.2%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Ryan M. (G) 2. Sugawara Y. 25. Bazoer R. 5. Penetra 18. Wolfe D. 8. Clasie J. (C) 10. de Wit D. 16. Mijnans S. 11. Sadiq I. 9. Pavlidis V. 19. van Brederode M.	1. Martinez E. (G) 2. Cash M. 3. Diego Carlos 17. Lenglet C. 12. Digne L. 44. Kamara B. 7. McGinn J. (C) 6. Douglas Luiz 8. Tielemans Y. 31. Bailey L. 11. Watkins O.
Substitutes
6. Dantas T. 33. Goes W. 28. Goudmijn K. 30. Kasius D. 4. Martins Indi B. 14. Mihailovic D. 7. Odgaard J. 20. Owusu-Oduro R. (G) 21. Poku E. 15. van Bommel R. 12. Verhulst H. (G)	16. Chambers C. 32. Dendoncker L. 19. Diaby M. 24. Duran J. 4. Konsa E. 42. Marschall F. (G) 25. Olsen R. (G) 14. Torres P. 9. Traore B. 22. Zaniolo N.
Coaches
Jansen P.	Emery U.

Preview

AZ in the last match got series victories and it is in a super good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Aston Villa is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Recently opponents have a series of home games.

Aston Villa will have a poor advantage in this game.

There will not play in AZ: Lahdo M. (Red Card)

There will not play in Aston Villa: Buendia E. (Knee Injury) Hause K. (Knee Injury) Mings T. (Knee Injury) Moreno A. (Injury) Ramsey J. (Injury)

There are questionable in AZ: Westerveld S. (Knee Injury) de Wit M. (Foot Injury)

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AZ Alkmaar
Dutch Eredivisie
21.10.23	AZ Alkmaar - Heerenveen	3:0 ✺
08.10.23	Ajax - AZ Alkmaar	1:2 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
05.10.23	AZ Alkmaar - Legia Warsaw	1:0 ✺
Dutch Eredivisie
01.10.23	AZ Alkmaar - Fortuna Sittard	4:0 ✺
28.09.23	AZ Alkmaar - Heracles Almelo	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.7 WWWWT
- Aston Villa
English Premier League
22.10.23	Aston Villa - West Ham United	4:1 ✺
08.10.23	Wolverhampton Wanderers - Aston Villa	1:1 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
05.10.23	Aston Villa - Zrinjski Mostar	1:0 ✺
English Premier League
30.09.23	Aston Villa - Brighton & Hove Albion	6:1 ✺
English League Cup
27.09.23	Aston Villa - Everton	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.1 WTWWL

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