Match Info

Premier League - Round 26

Date: 11 February 2026, Wednesday

Location: Villa Park (Birmingham)

Referee: Bankes P. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Aston Villa		Brighton & Hove Albion

	1	X	2
	1.95	3.7	3.7
	2.02	3.8	3.5
	2.02	3.8	3.7
	2.02	3.81	3.66	Watch
	1.95	3.5	3.5
	2.07	3.76	3.74	Watch
	1.92	4	3.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.99 ↑ (1.92)	3.77 ↓ (3.84)	3.63 ↓ (3.83)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 1.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Aston Villa
48.1%

Draw
25.5%

Brighton & Hove Albion
26.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50%

25%

Our Initial ML Estimation

50.7%

24.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Aston Villa has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.9%)

Brighton & Hove Albion has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Aston Villa than the current prediction. (+2.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Brighton & Hove Albion than the current prediction. (-1.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
75.3%	16.9%	7.8%

Aston Villa - Brighton & Hove Albion Predictions

Users Predictions: 75 users predict this event. Aston Villa will win (votes: 57 - 76%). Brighton & Hove will win (votes: 6 - 8%). It will Tie (votes: 12 - 16%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Aston Villa: 66.3% – 85.7%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.25 - Brighton & Hove (2.12) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 7 - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

AH 0 - Aston Villa (1.48) (votes: 1 - 50%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 6 - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

DC - Aston Villa (1.32) (votes: 2 - 66.7%) .

O/U 1, 2nd Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

1X2, 2nd Half - Aston Villa (2.30) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Aston Villa will win (24 of 28 users predict this - 85.71%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 35 Selected Experts predict this event. Aston Villa (votes: 28 - 80%). Brighton & Hove (votes: 4 - 11.4%). Tie (votes: 3 - 8.6%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
23. Martinez E. (G) 26. Bogarde L. 4. Konsa E. (C) 5. Mings T. 22. Maatsen I. 24. Onana A. 21. Douglas Luiz 19. Sancho J. 10. Buendia E. 27. Rogers M. 11. Watkins O.	1. Verbruggen B. (G) 34. Veltman J. 6. van Hecke J. P. 5. Dunk L. (C) 24. Kadioglu F. 13. Hinshelwood J. 17. Baleba C. 30. Gross P. 25. Gomez D. 18. Welbeck D. 22. Mitoma K.
Substitutes
18. Abraham T. 47. Alysson 31. Bailey L. 6. Barkley R. 40. Bizot M. (G) 12. Digne L. 3. Lindelof V. 14. Torres P. 64. Wright J. (G)	21. Boscagli O. 29. De Cuyper M. 53. Howell H. 19. Kostoulas C. 20. Milner J. 11. Minteh Y. 33. O'Riley M. 10. Rutter G. 23. Steele J. (G)
Coaches
Emery U.	Hurzeler F.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2', Baleba C. 🟨,
22', Baleba C. ↓, Milner J. ↑,
23', Veltman J. 🟨,
41', Martinez E. 🟨,
41', van Hecke J. P. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
50', Rogers M. 🟨,
60', Sancho J. ↓, Bailey L. ↑,
60', Buendia E. ↓, Barkley R. ↑,
61', van Hecke J. P. ↓, Boscagli O. ↑,
74', Onana A. ↓, Alysson ↑,
75', Watkins O. ↓, Abraham T. ↑,
81', Mitoma K. ↓, Howell H. ↑,
81', Gomez D. ↓, Minteh Y. ↑,
81', Welbeck D. ↓, Kostoulas C. ↑,
84', Douglas Luiz ↓, Lindelof V. ↑,
86', 1 - 0, Hinshelwood J. (Own goal),

Preview

This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: ) and 14).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Aston Villa won 3.

Aston Villa is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Brighton & Hove has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Aston Villa may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Aston Villa could have a small edge in this match.

There will not play in Aston Villa: Garcia A. (Thigh Injury) Kamara B. (Knee Injury) McGinn J. (Knee Injury) Tielemans Y. (Ankle Injury)

There will not play in Brighton & Hove: March S. (Knee Injury) Tzimas S. (Knee Injury) Webster A. (Knee Injury) Wieffer M. (Toe Injury)

There are questionable in Aston Villa: Alysson (Injury)

There are questionable in Brighton & Hove: Ayari Y. (Shoulder Injury) van Hecke J. P. (Muscle Injury)

In the last 17 head-to-head matches, Aston Villa won 9 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 34:18. (average 2:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Aston Villa won 4 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 18:10. (average 2.3:1.3).

Outrights of English Premier League for now

Brighton: 2.57% Aston Villa: 0.7%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Brighton	5	3	1	1	16:5	11	10
16	Aston Villa	5	1	1	3	4:9	-5	4

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Aston Villa
English Premier League
07.02.26	Bournemouth - Aston Villa	1:1 ✺
01.02.26	Aston Villa - Brentford	0:1 ✺
UEFA Europa League
29.01.26	Aston Villa - Red Bull Salzburg	3:2 ✺
English Premier League
25.01.26	Newcastle United - Aston Villa	0:2 ✺
UEFA Europa League
22.01.26	Fenerbahçe - Aston Villa	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13 TLWWW
- Brighton & Hove Albion
English Premier League
08.02.26	Brighton & Hove Albion - Crystal Palace	0:1 ✺
31.01.26	Brighton & Hove Albion - Everton	1:1 ✺
24.01.26	Fulham - Brighton & Hove Albion	2:1 ✺
19.01.26	Brighton & Hove Albion - Bournemouth	1:1 ✺
English FA Cup
11.01.26	Manchester United - Brighton & Hove Albion	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.9 LTLTW

Latest Head to Head

English Premier League
03.12.25	Brighton & Hove Albion - Aston Villa	3:4
02.04.25	Brighton & Hove Albion - Aston Villa	0:3
30.12.24	Aston Villa - Brighton & Hove Albion	2:2
05.05.24	Brighton & Hove Albion - Aston Villa	1:0
30.09.23	Aston Villa - Brighton & Hove Albion	6:1
28.05.23	Aston Villa - Brighton & Hove Albion	2:1
Club Friendly
08.12.22	Aston Villa - Brighton & Hove Albion	2:2

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