Match Info

Champions League - League phase - Round 6

Date: 9 December 2025, Tuesday

Location: New Balance Arena (Bergamo)

Referee: Hernandez A. (Esp)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Atalanta		Chelsea

	1	X	2
	3.4	3.5	2.1
	3.45	3.45	2.18
	3.55	3.55	2.19
	3.38	3.52	2.22	Watch
	3.3	3.3	2.15
	3.52	3.58	2.22
	3.4	3.4	2.16
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.43 ↓ (3.44)	3.47 ↓ (3.74)	2.17 ↑ (2.07)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 1.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Atalanta
28.1%

Draw
27.7%

Chelsea
44.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

27.9%

25.7%

46.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

27.1%

25%

47.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Atalanta has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.2%)

Chelsea has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Atalanta than the current prediction. (-1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Chelsea than the current prediction. (+3.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
15.1%	18.6%	66.3%

Atalanta - Chelsea Predictions

Users Predictions: 85 users predict this event. Atalanta will win (votes: 13 - 15.3%). Chelsea will win (votes: 57 - 67.1%). It will Tie (votes: 15 - 17.6%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Chelsea: 57.1% – 77.1%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 38 Selected Experts predict this event. Atalanta (votes: 4 - 10.5%). Chelsea (votes: 27 - 71.1%). Tie (votes: 7 - 18.4%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DNB - Chelsea (1.57) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

AH +0.25 - Atalanta (1.94) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - under (votes: 3 - 75%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

DC - Chelsea (1.34) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH 0 - Chelsea (1.55) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 43 Selected Experts predict this event. Atalanta (votes: 5 - 11.6%). Chelsea (votes: 31 - 72.1%). Tie (votes: 7 - 16.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
29. Carnesecchi M. (G) 3. Kossounou O. 19. Djimsiti B. 23. Kolasinac S. 16. Bellanova R. 15. De Roon M. (C) 13. Ederson 47. Bernasconi L. 17. De Ketelaere C. 9. Scamacca G. 11. Lookman A.	1. Sanchez R. (G) 23. Chalobah T. 34. Acheampong J. 5. Badiashile B. 3. Cucurella M. 24. James R. (C) 25. Caicedo M. 7. Neto P. 8. Fernandez E. 11. Gittens J. 20. Joao Pedro
Substitutes
69. Ahanor H. 44. Brescianini M. 4. Hien I. 90. Krstovic N. 70. Maldini D. 6. Musah Y. 8. Pasalic M. 10. Samardzic L. 42. Scalvini G. 57. Sportiello M. (G) 59. Zalewski N. 77. Zappacosta D.	4. Adarabioyo T. 17. Andrey Santos 40. Buonanotte F. 41. Estêvão 29. Fofana W. 49. Garnacho A. 32. George T. 38. Guiu M. 27. Gusto M. 21. Hato J. 12. Jorgensen F. (G) 50. Merrick M. (G)
Coaches
Palladino R.	Maresca E.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
17', Bellanova R. ↓, Zappacosta D. ↑,
25', 0 - 1, Joao Pedro ⚽, James R. (A),
29', Chalobah T. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Chalobah T. ↓, Fofana W. ↑,
55', 1 - 1, Scamacca G. ⚽, De Ketelaere C. (A),
67', Fernandez E. ↓, Gusto M. ↑,
67', Neto P. ↓, Garnacho A. ↑,
71', Kolasinac S. ↓, Ahanor H. ↑,
71', Scamacca G. ↓, Krstovic N. ↑,
76', Fofana W. ↓, Adarabioyo T. ↑,
83', 2 - 1, De Ketelaere C. ⚽, De Roon M. (A),
87', Ederson ↓, Musah Y. ↑,
87', Lookman A. ↓, Pasalic M. ↑,

Preview

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Chelsea could have a small edge in this match.

There will not play in Atalanta: Bakker M. (Knee Injury) Sulemana K. (Muscle Injury)

There will not play in Chelsea: Colwill L. (Knee Injury) Delap L. (Shoulder Injury) Essugo D. (Thigh Injury) Lavia R. (Thigh Injury) Mudryk M. (Suspended) Palmer C. (Lacking Match Fitness) Slonina G. (Inactive) Sterling R. (Inactive)

Recently, there has been no match between the teams.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Atalanta
Italian Serie A
06.12.25	Verona - Atalanta	3:1 ✺
Coppa Italia
03.12.25	Atalanta - Genoa	4:0 ✺
Italian Serie A
30.11.25	Atalanta - Fiorentina	2:0 ✺
UEFA Champions League
26.11.25	Eintracht Frankfurt - Atalanta	0:3 ✺
Italian Serie A
22.11.25	Napoli - Atalanta	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.9 LWWWL
- Chelsea
English Premier League
06.12.25	Bournemouth - Chelsea	0:0 ✺
03.12.25	Leeds United - Chelsea	3:1 ✺
30.11.25	Chelsea - Arsenal	1:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
25.11.25	Chelsea - Barcelona	3:0 ✺
English Premier League
22.11.25	Burnley - Chelsea	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.5 TLTWW

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