Match Info

Premier League - Round 12

Date: 22 November 2025, Saturday

Location: Turf Moor (Burnley)

Referee: Bankes P. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


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Denmark	Amazon Prime Video, Disney+
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World	Sport 24


	Burnley		Chelsea

	1	X	2
	6	4.33	1.5
	6.3	4.5	1.52
	6.33	4.76	1.54
	5.84	4.43	1.53	Watch
	6.69	4.61	1.54	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	6.23 ↑ (5.84)	4.53 ↑ (4.43)	1.53 (1.53)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 1.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Burnley
15.5%

Draw
21.3%

Chelsea
63.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

16.3%

21.5%

62.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

15.9%

21%

63.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Burnley has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.8%)

Chelsea has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Burnley than the current prediction. (+0.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Chelsea than the current prediction. (+0.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
6.3%	7.9%	85.7%

Burnley - Chelsea Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 3.25 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 3.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Chelsea will win (53 of 62 users predict this - 85.48%).
Confidence interval (95%): 76.71% – 94.25%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Chelsea will win (17 of 19 users predict this - 89.47%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Dubravka M. (G) 2. Walker K. 6. Tuanzebe A. 5. Esteve M. 3. Hartman Q. 16. Florentino 24. Cullen J. (C) 17. Tchaouna L. 8. Ugochukwu L. 11. Anthony J. 19. Flemming Z.	1. Sanchez R. (G) 24. James R. (C) 23. Chalobah T. 4. Adarabioyo T. 3. Cucurella M. 17. Andrey Santos 8. Fernandez E. 7. Neto P. 20. Joao Pedro 11. Gittens J. 9. Delap L.
Substitutes
27. Broja A. 7. Bruun Larsen J. 10. Edwards M. 18. Ekdal H. 9. Foster L. 29. Laurent J. 23. Lucas Pires 28. Mejbri H. 13. Weiss M. (G)	34. Acheampong J. 5. Badiashile B. 25. Caicedo M. 41. Estêvão 49. Garnacho A. 38. Guiu M. 27. Gusto M. 21. Hato J. 12. Jorgensen F. (G)
Coaches
Parker S.	Maresca E.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
37', 0 - 1, Neto P. ⚽, Gittens J. (A),
41', Neto P. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', James R. ↓, Badiashile B. ↑,
49', Walker K. 🟨,
67', Delap L. ↓, Gusto M. ↑,
69', Joao Pedro 🟨,
72', Anthony J. ↓, Foster L. ↑,
72', Ugochukwu L. ↓, Mejbri H. ↑,
72', Flemming Z. ↓, Broja A. ↑,
76', Joao Pedro ↓, Guiu M. ↑,
76', Tchaouna L. ↓, Bruun Larsen J. ↑,
78', Maresca E. 🟨,
81', Badiashile B. 🟨,
82', Mejbri H. 🟨,
84', Florentino ↓, Laurent J. ↑,
88', 0 - 2, Fernandez E. ⚽, Guiu M. (A),

Preview

Let's watch a game between a leader and an outsider (ranked 17 and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Burnley won 0.

Burnley has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Chelsea is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

In this match, Chelsea is the obvious favorite.

There will not play in Burnley: Amdouni Z. (Knee Injury) Beyer J. (Hamstring Injury) Roberts C. (Groin Injury)

There will not play in Chelsea: Colwill L. (Knee Injury) Essugo D. (Thigh Injury) Lavia R. (Thigh Injury) Mudryk M. (Suspended) Palmer C. (Groin Injury)

There are questionable in Burnley: Broja A. (Ankle Injury)

In the last 16 head-to-head matches, Burnley won 1 match, drew 5 matches, lost 10 matches, and goals 15:41. (average 0.9:2.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Burnley won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 7 matches, and goals 6:25. (average 0.8:3.1).

Last Results with these Odds

Chelsea - the odds 1.53 are the expected chance of winning is 62.21%, but this team recently wins 38% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Burnley FC
English Premier League
08.11.25	West Ham United - Burnley	3:2 ✺
01.11.25	Burnley - Arsenal	0:2 ✺
26.10.25	Wolverhampton Wanderers - Burnley	2:3 ✺
18.10.25	Burnley - Leeds United	2:0 ✺
05.10.25	Aston Villa - Burnley	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.1 LLWWL
- Chelsea
English Premier League
08.11.25	Chelsea - Wolverhampton Wanderers	3:0 ✺
UEFA Champions League
05.11.25	Qarabağ Agdam - Chelsea	2:2 ✺
English Premier League
01.11.25	Tottenham Hotspur - Chelsea	0:1 ✺
English League Cup
29.10.25	Wolverhampton Wanderers - Chelsea	3:4 ✺
English Premier League
25.10.25	Chelsea - Sunderland	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.7 WTWWL

Latest Head to Head

English Premier League
30.03.24	Chelsea - Burnley	2:2
07.10.23	Burnley - Chelsea	1:4
05.03.22	Burnley - Chelsea	0:4
06.11.21	Chelsea - Burnley	1:1
31.01.21	Chelsea - Burnley	2:0
31.10.20	Burnley - Chelsea	0:3
11.01.20	Chelsea - Burnley	3:0

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