Match Info

EUROPE: Champions League - League phase - Round 6

Date: 10 December 2024, Tuesday 🏁 Finished

Location: Gewiss Stadium (Bergamo) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Marciniak S. (Pol)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Africa	—	DStv Now, New World Sport App, SuperSport Football Plus ROA, SuperSport MaXimo 1, SuperSport Premier League
Albania	21:00	Tring Sport 1
Argentina	17:00	Disney+, Fox Sports
Armenia	00:00	Fast Sports 1, Fast Sports
Asia	—	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 1, TOD
Australia	07:00	Stan Sport
Austria	21:00	Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Austria 4
Azerbaijan	00:00	CBC Sport
Belgium	21:00	Pickx+ Sports 3, Pickx+ Sports 3, Play Sports 1, Play Sports 4
Bosnia And Herzegovina	21:00	Arena Sport 1
Brazil	17:00	Claro TV+, Max, SBT, Sky+, TNT, Vivo Play, Zapping
Bulgaria	22:00	Max Sport 3
Canada	15:00	DAZN Canada
Chile	17:00	Disney+, ESPN Premium
China	04:00	iQIYI, QQ Sports
Colombia	15:00	Disney+, ESPN
Croatia	21:00	Arena Sport 2, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	22:00	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 3, Cytavision Sports 3
Czech Republic	21:00	Nova Sport 6
Denmark	21:00	TV3+, Viaplay
Finland	22:00	MTV Katsomo, MTV Katsomo+, MTV Urheilu 2
France	21:00	Canal+ Live 3
Germany	21:00	DAZN 1 Deutsch
Greece	22:00	COSMOTE Sport 2
Hong Kong	04:00	beIN Sports 3
Hungary	21:00	RTL+
Iceland	20:00	Stod 2 Sport 3, Viaplay
India	01:30	Sony LIV
Indonesia	03:00	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1, Vidio
Ireland	20:00	Virgin Media Player
Italy	21:00	NOW TV, Sky Sport 1, Sky Sport 253, Sky Sport Arena
Japan	05:00	Wowow Prime
Kosovo	21:00	ART Motion Sport 1, ART Sport 2
Laos	03:00	beIN Connect
Malaysia	04:00	beIN Connect
Malta	21:00	TSN Malta 2
Mexico	14:00	HBO Max, MAX, TNT Sports
Montenegro	21:00	Arena Premium 1
Myanmar	02:30	Canal+ Myanmar
Netherlands	21:00	Ziggo Sport 2
New Zealand	09:00	DAZN New Zealand, TVWan
North Central America	—	ESPN Norte
North Macedonia	21:00	Arena Premium 1, TDM Desporto
Norway	21:00	TV2 Play
Pakistan	01:00	Tapmad
Peru	15:00	Disney+, ESPN
Philippines	04:00	beIN Connect
Poland	21:00	Canal+ Extra 1
Portugal	20:00	DAZN 1, DAZN 2
Romania	22:00	Digi Online, Digi Sport 1, Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 1
Russia	23:00	Okko Sport
Serbia	21:00	Arena Premium 1
Slovakia	21:00	Kanal A, Voyo
South America	—	ESPN South, ViX Latin America
Spain	21:00	M+ Liga de Campeones
Sweden	21:00	Viaplay
Switzerland	21:00	Blue Sport 1, Blue Sport 1, Blue Sport 2, Blue Sport 2
Thailand	03:00	beIN Connect
Ukraine	22:00	MEGOGO Futbol 2
United Kingdom	20:00	beIN Sports MENA English 1, Discovery+ UK, TNT Sports 1, Virgin Media More
Uruguay	17:00	Disney+
Usa	15:00	Paramount+, TUDN, UniMas, Univision
Venezuela	16:00	Disney+, ESPN, Inter
Vietnam	03:00	TV 360
International	20:00	Disney+, JioTV app, Prima+ app, Virgin TV Go app


	Atalanta		Real Madrid

	1	X	2
	2.55	3.6	2.6
	2.65	3.5	2.55
	2.6	3.65	2.65
	2.66	3.65	2.7
	2.63	3.63	2.68	Watch
	2.7	3.5	2.6
	2.7	3.73	2.62
	2.6	3.65	2.65
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.64 ↓ (2.71)	3.61 ↓ (3.64)	2.63 ↑ (2.49)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 2%, offered by

Watch this match and UEFA Champions League with fuboTV (for US customers)

Network on TV: UniMás

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Current Win Probability

Atalanta
36.6%

Draw
26.7%

Real Madrid
36.7%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

35.3%

26.3%

38.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33.9%

27.4%

40%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Atalanta has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.3%)

Real Madrid has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Atalanta than the current prediction. (-2.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Real Madrid than the current prediction. (+3.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
33.3%	23.3%	43.3%

Atalanta - Real Madrid Predictions

Users Predictions: 119 users predict this event. Atalanta will win (votes: 40 - 33.6%). Real will win (votes: 51 - 42.9%). It will Tie (votes: 28 - 23.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Real: 34% – 51.8%. The data is statistically significant.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
29. Carnesecchi M. (G) 19. Djimsiti B. 4. Hien I. 23. Kolasinac S. 16. Bellanova R. 15. De Roon M. (C) 13. Ederson 22. Ruggeri M. 8. Pasalic M. 17. De Ketelaere C. 11. Lookman A.	1. Courtois T. (G) 17. Lucas (C) 14. Tchouameni A. 22. Rudiger A. 20. Garcia F. 21. Diaz B. 19. Ceballos D. 8. Valverde F. 5. Bellingham J. 9. Mbappe K. 7. Vinicius Junior
Substitutes
44. Brescianini M. 5. Godfrey B. 3. Kossounou O. 27. Palestra M. 28. Patricio R. (G) 32. Retegui M. 31. Rossi F. (G) 24. Samardzic L. 2. Toloi R. 10. Zaniolo N. 77. Zappacosta D.	36. Andres C. 35. Asencio R. 16. Endrick 15. Guler A. 13. Lunin A. (G) 34. Mestre S. (G) 10. Modric L. 11. Rodrygo 18. Vallejo J. 29. Yusi
Coaches
Gasperini G.	Ancelotti C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
10', 0 - 1, Mbappe K. ⚽, Diaz B. (A),
36', Mbappe K. ↓, Rodrygo ↑,
45+2', Tchouameni A. 🟨,
45+2', 1 - 1, De Ketelaere C. (Pen),
2nd Half (1 - 2)
56', 1 - 2, Vinicius Junior ⚽,
58', Pasalic M. ↓, Samardzic L. ↑,
59', 1 - 3, Bellingham J. ⚽, Vinicius Junior (A),
65', 2 - 3, Lookman A. ⚽, Samardzic L. (A),
74', Djimsiti B. ↓, Kossounou O. ↑,
74', De Ketelaere C. ↓, Retegui M. ↑,
75', Bellanova R. ↓, Zappacosta D. ↑,
84', Ceballos D. ↓, Modric L. ↑,
84', Diaz B. ↓, Asencio R. ↑,
87', Bellingham J. ↓, Guler A. ↑,
87', Ruggeri M. ↓, Zaniolo N. ↑,
90+2', Kossounou O. 🟨,
90+3', Lucas 🟨,

Preview

Atalanta in the last match got series victories and it is in a very good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 5).

Recent matches Real is playing unpredictable (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Real could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Recently Real have a series of guest games.

In this match the chances to achieve triumph for both teams are almost equal.

There will not play in Atalanta: Cuadrado J. (Muscle Injury) Scalvini G. (Shoulder Injury) Scamacca G. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Real: Alaba D. (Knee Injury) Camavinga E. (Thigh Injury) Carvajal D. (Knee Injury) Mendy F. (Muscle Injury) Militao E. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Atalanta: Zappacosta D. (Calf Injury)

Last 3 head-to-head matches Atalanta won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 1:6 (average 0.3:2).

Including matches at home between the teams Atalanta won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 0:1

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Atalanta
Italian Serie A
06.12.24	Atalanta - Milan	2:1 ✺
02.12.24	Roma - Atalanta	0:2 ✺
UEFA Champions League
26.11.24	Young Boys - Atalanta	1:6 ✺
Italian Serie A
23.11.24	Parma - Atalanta	1:3 ✺
10.11.24	Atalanta - Udinese	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.2 WWWWW
- Real Madrid
Spanish LaLiga
07.12.24	Girona - Real Madrid	0:3 ✺
04.12.24	Athletic Bilbao - Real Madrid	2:1 ✺
01.12.24	Real Madrid - Getafe	2:0 ✺
UEFA Champions League
27.11.24	Liverpool - Real Madrid	2:0 ✺
Spanish LaLiga
24.11.24	Leganés - Real Madrid	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.5 WLWLW

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Super Cup
14.08.24	Real Madrid - Atalanta	2:0
UEFA Champions League
16.03.21	Real Madrid - Atalanta	3:1
24.02.21	Atalanta - Real Madrid	0:1

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