Match Info

Serie B Superbet - Round 28

Date: 24 September 2025, Wednesday

Location: Estádio Joaquim Portugal (Minas Gerais)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Disney+


	Athletic Club		Athletico Paranaense

	1	X	2
	3.9	3.1	2.01	Watch
	3.75	3	2.05
	4.01	3.15	2.16
	3.69	2.88	2.21	Watch
	3.89	3.09	2.05	Watch
	2.95	3.1	2.45
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.7 ↑ (2.75)	3.05 (3.05)	2.16 ↓ (2.6)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Athletic Club
25.5%

Draw
30.8%

Athletico Paranaense
43.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

33.8%

30.5%

35.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

34.2%

30.8%

35.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Athletic Club has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Athletic Club's form might have worsened.

Athletico Paranaense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Athletico Paranaense's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Athletic Club than the current prediction. (+8.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Athletic Club, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Athletico Paranaense than the current prediction. (-8.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Athletico Paranaense, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
13.3%	0%	86.7%

Athletic Club - Athletico Paranaense Predictions

Users Predictions: 15 users predict this event. Athletic will win (votes: 2 - 13.3%). Athletico PR will win (votes: 13 - 86.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Athletico PR: 69.5% – 100%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Athletico Paranaense will win (4 of 5 users predict this - 80%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
25. Glauco (G) 2. Douglas Pele 4. Sidimar (C) 43. Marcelo Ajul 84. Rodrigo Gelado 7. Welinton Torrao 14. Fabricio Isidoro 38. Sandry 23. Luiz Filipe 17. Da Cruz A. 21. Tavares R.	23. Santos (C) 13. Teran C. 33. Aguirre Tabares J. F. 65. Arthur Dias 29. Benavidez G. 88. Patrick 10. Zapelli B. 53. Dudu Kogitzki 37. Esquivel L. 9. Viveros K. 19. Luiz Fernando
Substitutes
27. Alason Carioca 30. Betao 8. Chico Geraldes 10. David Braga 70. Eduardo Freire (G) 47. Guilherme Cachoeira 15. Indio G. 1. Jefferson Luis (G) 28. Kauan Lindes 19. Neto Costa 52. Wesley Gasolina 6. Yuri	27. Alan Kardec 5. Felipinho 6. Fernando 8. Giuliano 20. Julimar 3. Leo 21. Leozinho 22. Madson 1. Mycael (G) 31. Raul 70. Renan Peixoto 7. Velasco K.
Coaches
Duarte R.	Hellmann O.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
26', Teran C. ↓, Leo ↑,
45+2', Luiz Filipe 🟨,
45+2', Arthur Dias 🟨,
45+2', 0 - 1, Viveros K. ⚽, Luiz Fernando (A),
2nd Half (0 - 2)
56', Sidimar 🟨,
56', Viveros K. 🟨,
59', Sandry 🟨,
64', Zapelli B. ↓, Felipinho ↑,
65', Luiz Fernando ↓, Julimar ↑,
66', Marcelo Ajul 🟨,
77', 0 - 2, Julimar (Pen),
78', Welinton Torrao ↓, Guilherme Cachoeira ↑,
78', Sandry ↓, Alason Carioca ↑,
80', Luiz Filipe ↓, Kauan Lindes ↑,
86', Da Cruz A. ↓, Neto Costa ↑,
87', Marcelo Ajul ↓, Indio G. ↑,
88', Dudu Kogitzki ↓, Leozinho ↑,
88', Esquivel L. ↓, Fernando ↑,
90+3', 0 - 3, Leozinho ⚽,
90+6', Douglas Pele 🟨,

Preview

Enjoy a meeting between a mid-ranked team and one of the leaders (ranked 15 and 5).

Athletic has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Athletico PR is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Athletico PR may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Athletico PR might have a minor edge in this game.

There will not play in Athletic: Adriel (Yellow Cards) Alex Nascimento (Red Card) Edson Miranda (Inactive) Jhonatan Silva (Yellow Cards) Joao Miguel (Injury)

There will not play in Athletico PR: Belezi (Inactive) Isaac (Inactive) Joao Cruz (Inactive) Mendoza S. (Yellow Cards)

There are questionable in Athletic: Chico Geraldes (Injury)

There are questionable in Athletico PR: Viveros K. (Injury)

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Athletic won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Athletic Club MG
Brazilian Serie B
19.09.25	Grêmio Novorizontino - Athletic Club	1:0 ✺
14.09.25	Athletic Club - Botafogo SP	2:0 ✺
08.09.25	Vila Nova - Athletic Club	1:1 ✺
31.08.25	Volta Redonda - Athletic Club	0:2 ✺
22.08.25	Athletic Club - Chapecoense	0:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.7 LWTWL
- Athletico Paranaense
Brazilian Serie B
21.09.25	Athletico Paranaense - Vila Nova	2:0 ✺
16.09.25	Chapecoense - Athletico Paranaense	2:3 ✺
Copa do Brasil
10.09.25	Corinthians - Athletico Paranaense	2:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie B
06.09.25	Botafogo SP - Athletico Paranaense	1:3 ✺
30.08.25	Athletico Paranaense - Grêmio Novorizontino	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10 WWLWW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie B
24.05.25	Athletico Paranaense - Athletic Club	1:0

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