Match Info

Serie B Superbet - Round 25

Date: 6 September 2025, Saturday

Location: Estadio Santa Cruz (Ribeirao Preto)

Referee: Ferreira Y. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Disney+, ESPN, RedeTV!, SportyNet, Vivo Play, Zapping


	Botafogo SP		Athletico Paranaense

	1	X	2
	4.5	3	1.87	Watch
	3.8	3	1.98
	4.05	2.92	2.05
	4.42	3.06	2.04
	16.52	4.70	1.26	Watch
	3.75	3	2.05
	4.49	3	1.95	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.93 ↑ (4.07)	3.24 ↑ (3.05)	1.89 ↓ (2.05)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 4.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Botafogo SP
16.7%

Draw
30.6%

Athletico Paranaense
52.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

23.1%

30.8%

46%

Our Initial ML Estimation

23.4%

30.4%

45.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Botafogo SP has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Botafogo SP's form might have worsened.

Athletico Paranaense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Athletico Paranaense's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Botafogo SP than the current prediction. (+6.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Botafogo SP, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Athletico Paranaense than the current prediction. (-7.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Athletico Paranaense, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
66.7%	11.1%	22.2%

Botafogo SP - Athletico Paranaense Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Botafogo SP will win (votes: 6 - 66.7%). Athletico PR will win (votes: 2 - 22.2%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 11.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Botafogo SP: 35.9% – 97.5%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +0.5 - Botafogo SP (1.78) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Botafogo SP will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Botafogo SP (votes: 4 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Victor Souza (G) 2. Wallison 3. Edson (C) 4. Carlao 6. Risso G. 8. Maciel L. 5. Wesley Dias 7. Jonathan Cafu 10. Marquinho 11. Jefferson Nem 9. Carrillo R.	23. Santos (C) 29. Benavidez G. 33. Aguirre Tabares J. F. 13. Teran C. 37. Esquivel L. 21. Leozinho 5. Felipinho 88. Patrick 17. Mendoza S. 10. Zapelli B. 9. Viveros K.
Substitutes
20. Dramisino A. 21. Gabriel Barros 15. Gabriel Bispo 19. Guilherme Queiroz 16. Jean Victor 13. Jeferson 23. Jhony Douglas 12. Joao Carlos (G) 18. Matheus Barbosa 22. Matheus Regis 17. Robinho 14. Vilar	27. Alan Kardec 45. Belezi 53. Dudu Kogitzki 8. Giuliano 20. Julimar 61. Leo Derik 19. Luiz Fernando 22. Madson 1. Mycael (G) 70. Renan Peixoto 77. Ricardo E. 7. Velasco K.
Coaches
Angeli R.	Hellmann O.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
16', 0 - 1, Viveros K. (Pen),
41', Viveros K. 🟨,
45+2', Felipinho 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
46', Jonathan Cafu ↓, Gabriel Barros ↑,
66', 1 - 1, Marquinho (Pen),
73', Mendoza S. ↓, Luiz Fernando ↑,
73', Viveros K. ↓, Alan Kardec ↑,
73', Leozinho ↓, Julimar ↑,
74', Zapelli B. 🟨,
80', Carrillo R. ↓, Guilherme Queiroz ↑,
81', Risso G. ↓, Jean Victor ↑,
81', Wesley Dias ↓, Jhony Douglas ↑,
82', Felipinho ↓, Dudu Kogitzki ↑,
84', Teran C. 🟥,
87', Zapelli B. ↓, Belezi ↑,
90+1', 1 - 2, Luiz Fernando ⚽,
90+12', Maciel L. ↓, Matheus Regis ↑,
90+14', 1 - 3, Dudu Kogitzki ⚽,

Preview

An outsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 16 and 11).

Botafogo SP is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Athletico PR's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Botafogo SP may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Athletico PR might have a minor edge in this game.

There will not play in Botafogo SP: Alisson Cassiano (Inactive) Ericson (Injury) Gabriel Bispo (Yellow Cards) Leo Gamalho (Injury)

There will not play in Athletico PR: Esquivel L. (Inactive) Isaac (Inactive) Leo (Inactive) Raul (Muscle Injury)

There are questionable in Botafogo SP: Gustavo Bochecha (Inactive)

There are questionable in Athletico PR: Leozinho (Injury)

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Botafogo SP won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Botafogo SP
Brazilian Serie B
30.08.25	Goiás - Botafogo SP	2:3 ✺
25.08.25	Botafogo SP - Vila Nova	2:0 ✺
16.08.25	Remo - Botafogo SP	1:1 ✺
10.08.25	Atlético Goianiense - Botafogo SP	2:0 ✺
02.08.25	Botafogo SP - América Mineiro	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 26 WWTLW
- Athletico Paranaense
Brazilian Serie B
30.08.25	Athletico Paranaense - Grêmio Novorizontino	2:1 ✺
Copa do Brasil
27.08.25	Athletico Paranaense - Corinthians	0:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie B
23.08.25	CRB Maceio - Athletico Paranaense	0:1 ✺
16.08.25	Athletico Paranaense - Cuiabá	1:1 ✺
11.08.25	Criciúma - Athletico Paranaense	4:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.4 WLWTL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie B
04.05.25	Athletico Paranaense - Botafogo SP	1:4

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