Match Info

Serie B Superbet - Round 38

Date: 23 November 2025, Sunday

Location: Ligga Arena (Curitiba)

Referee: Delgado M. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Claro TV+, Disney+, ESPN 4, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping


	Athletico Paranaense		América Mineiro

	1	X	2
	1.49	3.9	6.5	Watch
	1.5	3.9	6.5
	1.38	4.59	9.5
	1.49	3.82	7.15	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.47 ↑ (1.45)	4.05 ↓ (4.11)	7.41 ↑ (7.22)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Athletico Paranaense
64.1%

Draw
23.2%

América Mineiro
12.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

64.4%

22.7%

12.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

68.1%

21.5%

12.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Athletico Paranaense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.3%)

América Mineiro has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Athletico Paranaense than the current prediction. (+4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for América Mineiro than the current prediction. (-0.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
37.5%	62.5%	0%

Athletico Paranaense - América Mineiro Predictions

Users Predictions: 16 users predict this event. Athletico PR will win (votes: 6 - 37.5%). It will Tie (votes: 10 - 62.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 38.8% – 86.2%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 4 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +1 - América MG (2.03) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. América MG (votes: 1 - 20%). Tie (votes: 4 - 80%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
23. Santos (C) 13. Teran C. 33. Aguirre Tabares J. F. 65. Arthur Dias 17. Mendoza S. 57. Joao Cruz 5. Felipinho 61. Leo Derik 10. Zapelli B. 9. Viveros K. 20. Julimar	1. Gustavo (G) 45. Ricardo Silva (C) 2. Emerson Santos 3. Lucao 18. Julio Cesar 8. Felipe Amaral 15. Kaua Diniz 33. Yago Santos 29. Paulinho 69. Thauan 9. Willian Bigode
Substitutes
27. Alan Kardec 53. Dudu Kogitzki 6. Fernando 8. Giuliano 3. Leo 19. Luiz Fernando 22. Madson 1. Mycael (G) 88. Patrick 31. Raul 70. Renan Peixoto 7. Velasco K.	27. Cassio Meneses (G) 70. David da Hora 19. Guilherme Pato 21. Jhosefer 23. Mariano 42. Miqueias 14. Rafa Barcelos 99. Rafa Silva 71. Samuel
Coaches
Hellmann O.	Alberto Valentim

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
34', Thauan 🟨,
40', Emerson Santos 🟨,
41', 1 - 0, Joao Cruz ⚽, Viveros K. (A),
45+2', Willian Bigode 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
61', Yago Santos ↓, Guilherme Pato ↑,
70', Joao Cruz 🟨,
70', Gustavo 🟨,
74', Joao Cruz ↓, Dudu Kogitzki ↑,
75', Emerson Santos ↓, Rafa Silva ↑,
83', Felipinho ↓, Patrick ↑,
83', Julimar ↓, Luiz Fernando ↑,
87', Willian Bigode ↓, Jhosefer ↑,
87', Julio Cesar ↓, Samuel ↑,
87', Thauan ↓, David da Hora ↑,
90', Viveros K. ↓, Renan Peixoto ↑,
90', Zapelli B. ↓, Velasco K. ↑,

Preview

Get ready for a battle between the top and the middle of the table (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie A Betano and 13).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Athletico PR won 1.

Athletico PR has shown excellent form with a series of wins in recent matches (last 5 games: 4 wins).

América MG is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Athletico PR may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Athletico PR is the obvious favorite.

There will not play in Athletico PR: Benavidez G. (Yellow Cards) Dudu Kogitzki (Inactive) Esquivel L. (Inactive) Isaac (Knee Injury) Leozinho (Yellow Cards)

There will not play in América MG: Ale (Knee Injury) Aloisio (Thigh Injury) Heber (Inactive) Maguinho (Pelvis Injury) Marlon (Inactive) Ortiz C. (Inactive) Yago Souza (Yellow Cards)

There are questionable in Athletico PR: Leo Derik (Injury)

There are questionable in América MG: Fabinho (Inactive)

We predict that Athletico PR will win today's game, with odds of 1.41.

In the last 14 head-to-head matches, Athletico PR won 6 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 26:21. (average 1.9:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Athletico PR won 6 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 19:7. (average 2.7:1).

Last Results with these Odds

Athletico Paranaense - the odds 1.45 are the expected chance of winning is 64.42%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Athletico Paranaense
Brazilian Serie B
16.11.25	Ferroviária - Athletico Paranaense	1:2 ✺
08.11.25	Athletico Paranaense - Volta Redonda	2:0 ✺
01.11.25	Goiás - Athletico Paranaense	0:1 ✺
27.10.25	Athletico Paranaense - Amazonas	2:0 ✺
19.10.25	Coritiba - Athletico Paranaense	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.7 WWWWT
- América Mineiro
Brazilian Serie B
16.11.25	América Mineiro - Cuiabá	1:1 ✺
10.11.25	Chapecoense - América Mineiro	0:1 ✺
03.11.25	América Mineiro - Grêmio Novorizontino	2:2 ✺
25.10.25	Athletic Club - América Mineiro	0:2 ✺
18.10.25	América Mineiro - CRB Maceio	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.8 TWTWT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie B
27.07.25	América Mineiro - Athletico Paranaense	2:2
Brazilian Serie A
25.10.23	Athletico Paranaense - América Mineiro	3:2
11.06.23	América Mineiro - Athletico Paranaense	2:2
21.08.22	Athletico Paranaense - América Mineiro	1:1
30.04.22	América Mineiro - Athletico Paranaense	1:0
Club Friendly
28.03.22	Athletico Paranaense - América Mineiro	4:0
Brazilian Serie A
11.09.21	América Mineiro - Athletico Paranaense	2:0

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