Match Info

Serie B Superbet - Round 24

Date: 30 August 2025, Saturday

Location: Ligga Arena (Curitiba)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Disney+


	Athletico Paranaense		Grêmio Novorizontino

	1	X	2
	1.79	3.2	5	Watch
	1.9	2.95	4.2
	1.85	3.1	4.55
	1.87	3.3	5.09
	1.87	3.02	4.89	Watch
	1.91	3	4.2
	1.88	3.28	4.46	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.87 ↑ (1.75)	3.12 ↓ (3.27)	4.63 ↓ (5.15)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Athletico Paranaense
50%

Draw
29.9%

Grêmio Novorizontino
20.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

53.3%

28.6%

18.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

54.5%

28%

17.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Athletico Paranaense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.3%)

Grêmio Novorizontino has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Athletico Paranaense than the current prediction. (+4.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Grêmio Novorizontino than the current prediction. (-2.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
62.5%	37.5%	0%

Athletico Paranaense - Grêmio Novorizontino Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Athletico PR will win (votes: 5 - 62.5%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 37.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Athletico PR: 29% – 96%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Athletico PR (votes: 3 - 60%). Tie (votes: 2 - 40%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
23. Santos (C) 29. Benavidez G. 33. Aguirre Tabares J. F. 65. Arthur Dias 61. Leo Derik 10. Zapelli B. 88. Patrick 19. Luiz Fernando 21. Leozinho 17. Mendoza S. 9. Viveros K.	1. Airton (G) 2. Rodrigo Soares 26. Dantas 37. Cesar Martins 77. Mayk 5. Jean Irmer (C) 6. Luis Oyama 25. Romulo 17. Bruno Jose 30. Waguininho 90. Caio Dantas
Substitutes
27. Alan Kardec 45. Belezi 53. Dudu Kogitzki 5. Felipinho 8. Giuliano 20. Julimar 22. Madson 1. Mycael (G) 70. Renan Peixoto 77. Ricardo E. 13. Teran C. 7. Velasco K.	93. Jordi (G) 19. Leo Tocantins 9. Lucca 10. Matheus Frizzo 99. Nathan Fogaca 7. Pablo Dyego 4. Patrick 3. Rafael Donato 40. Rai Ramos 22. Ruiz O. 8. Willian Farias
Coaches
Hellmann O.	Moreira E.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
29', 1 - 0, Airton (Own goal),
36', 1 - 1, Waguininho ⚽, Rodrigo Soares (A),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Luiz Fernando ↓, Madson ↑,
46', Mendoza S. ↓, Dudu Kogitzki ↑,
49', 2 - 1, Zapelli B. ⚽,
52', Dantas 🟨,
65', Bruno Jose ↓, Pablo Dyego ↑,
65', Caio Dantas ↓, Nathan Fogaca ↑,
67', Arthur Dias ↓, Teran C. ↑,
77', Romulo ↓, Leo Tocantins ↑,
77', Waguininho ↓, Matheus Frizzo ↑,
78', Leo Derik ↓, Felipinho ↑,
82', Mayk ↓, Lucca ↑,
83', Leozinho ↓, Julimar ↑,

Preview

Enjoy a meeting between a mid-ranked team and one of the leaders (ranked 12 and 5).

Athletico PR has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Novorizontino is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Athletico PR may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Athletico PR is the team to beat.

There will not play in Athletico PR: Isaac (Inactive) Julimar (Knee Injury) Kaua Moraes (Inactive) Leo (Inactive) Raul (Muscle Injury)

There will not play in Novorizontino: Fabio Matheus (Red Card) Marlon (Inactive) Rafael Donato (Yellow Cards) Renato Palm (Knee Injury) Vitinho (Inactive)

There are questionable in Novorizontino: Pablo Dyego (Inactive)

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Athletico PR won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2.

Last Results with these Odds

Athletico Paranaense - the odds 1.75 are the expected chance of winning is 53.3%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Athletico Paranaense
Copa do Brasil
27.08.25	Athletico Paranaense - Corinthians	0:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie B
23.08.25	CRB Maceio - Athletico Paranaense	0:1 ✺
16.08.25	Athletico Paranaense - Cuiabá	1:1 ✺
11.08.25	Criciúma - Athletico Paranaense	4:2 ✺
Copa do Brasil
06.08.25	Athletico Paranaense - São Paulo	2:0 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.7 LWTLW
- Grêmio Novorizontino
Brazilian Serie B
22.08.25	Criciúma - Grêmio Novorizontino	2:0 ✺
14.08.25	Grêmio Novorizontino - Coritiba	1:2 ✺
09.08.25	Volta Redonda - Grêmio Novorizontino	0:0 ✺
03.08.25	Grêmio Novorizontino - Avaí	1:1 ✺
26.07.25	CRB Maceio - Grêmio Novorizontino	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.4 LLTTL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie B
24.04.25	Grêmio Novorizontino - Athletico Paranaense	2:1

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