Match Info

EUROPE: Champions League - League phase - Round 3

Date: 23 October 2024, Wednesday

Location: Metropolitano Stadium (Madrid)

Referee: Guida M. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	DStv Now, New World Sport 4, New World Sport App, SuperSport GOtv LaLiga, SuperSport LaLiga, SuperSport Maximo 3, SuperSport Variety 2
Argentina	ESPN
Armenia	Fast Sports
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 4, TOD
Australia	Stan Sport
Austria	Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Austria 6
Belgium	Pickx+ Sports 4, Pickx+ Sports 4, Play Sports Golf
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Premium 3, Moja TV
Brazil	Max
Canada	DAZN Canada
China	iQIYI, QQ Sports
Croatia	Arena Sport 5, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 6, Cytavision Sports 6
Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	MTV Katsomo+
France	Canal+ Live 1, C+ France, Free
Georgia	Silk Sport 3
Germany	DAZN 1 Deutsch
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 7
Hungary	RTL+
Iceland	Stod 2 Sport 4
India	Sony LIV
Indonesia	beIN Connect
Italy	NOW TV, Sky Sport 255
Kosovo	ART Motion Sport 1
Malta	GO TV, TSN Malta 1
Myanmar	Canal+ Myanmar
New-zealand	DAZN New Zealand
North-macedonia	MaxTV GO
Norway	TV2 Play
Pakistan	Tapmad
Philippines	beIN Connect
Poland	Canal+ Extra 5
Portugal	DAZN 4
Romania	Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 5
Russia	Okko Sport
Slovakia	Voyo
South-america	ESPN 6 South, ViX Latin America
Spain	LaLiga TV Bar 2, M+ Liga de Campeones, Movistar Plus+ 1
Sweden	Viaplay
Switzerland	Blue Sport 1, Blue Sport 1, Blue Sport 7, Blue Sport 7, Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 4
United-kingdom	Discovery+ UK, TNT Sports 6
Usa	CBS, Paramount+
Venezuela	Inter
Vietnam	TV 360
World	Disney+, JioTV app


	Atlético Madrid		Lille

	1	X	2
	1.44	4.75	6.5
	1.49	4.33	6.75
	1.46	4.55	7.5	Watch
	1.49	4.59	7.59
	1.46	4.53	7.62
	1.53	4.2	6.5
	1.53	4.51	6.96
	1.5	4.45	6.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.49 ↓ (1.5)	4.49 ↑ (4.36)	7.03 ↑ (6.7)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 1.9%, offered by

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Network on TV: CBSSN

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Current Win Probability

Atlético Madrid
64.8%

Draw
21.5%

Lille
13.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

63.8%

21.9%

14.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

68.1%

23.4%

13.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Atlético Madrid has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1%)

Lille has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Atlético Madrid than the current prediction. (+3.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lille than the current prediction. (-0.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
81.1%	12.2%	6.8%

Atlético Madrid - Lille Predictions

Users Predictions: Atlético Madrid will win (58 of 72 users predict this - 80.56%).
Confidence interval (95%): 71.42% – 89.7%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Oblak J. (G) 16. Molina N. 20. Witsel A. 2. Gimenez J. M. 21. Galan J. 5. de Paul R. 6. Koke (C) 4. Gallagher C. 19. Alvarez J. 9. Sorloth A. 7. Griezmann A.	30. Chevalier L. (G) 36. Toure O. 2. Mandi A. 4. Alexsandro 12. Meunier T. 21. Andre B. (C) 17. Mukau N. 5. Gudmundsson G. 19. Fernandez-Pardo M. 27. Bayo M. 10. Cabella R.
Substitutes
10. Correa A. 28. Gismera A. 31. Gomis A. (G) 27. Kostis I. 11. Lemar T. 12. Lino S. 23. Mandava R. 1. Musso J. (G) 17. Riquelme R. 22. Simeone G.	16. Caillard M. (G) 37. Costarelli M. 9. David J. 18. Diakite B. 8. Gomes A. 1. Mannone V. (G) 11. Sahraoui O. 23. Zhegrova E.
Coaches
Simeone D.	Genesio B.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
8', 1 - 0, Alvarez J. ⚽,
16', Cabella R. ↓, Zhegrova E. ↑,
17', Galan J. 🟨,
44', Toure O. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 3)
46', Toure O. ↓, Diakite B. ↑,
61', 1 - 1, Zhegrova E. ⚽, Meunier T. (A),
65', Bayo M. ↓, David J. ↑,
65', Sorloth A. ↓, Correa A. ↑,
74', Simeone D. 🟨,
74', 1 - 2, David J. (Pen),
77', Molina N. ↓, Simeone G. ↑,
77', Gallagher C. ↓, Lino S. ↑,
77', Galan J. ↓, Mandava R. ↑,
78', Gimenez J. M. 🟨,
78', Meunier T. 🟨,
87', Mukau N. ↓, Gomes A. ↑,
88', Fernandez-Pardo M. ↓, Sahraoui O. ↑,
89', Witsel A. 🟨,
89', 1 - 3, David J. ⚽, Gudmundsson G. (A),

Preview

Recent matches Atlético is playing shaky (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Lille is in a first-rate shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Lille could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Atlético is a favorite.

There will not play in Atlético: Azpilicueta C. (Calf Injury) Barrios P. (Muscle Injury) Le Normand R. (Head Injury) Lenglet C. (Ankle Injury) Llorente M. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Lille: Bakker M. (Thigh Injury) Bentaleb N. (Illness) Haraldsson H. (Leg Injury) Ismaily (Injury) Mbappe E. (Muscle Injury) Santos T. (Knee Injury) Umtiti S. (Knee Injury)

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Atlético Madrid
Spanish LaLiga
20.10.24	Atlético Madrid - Leganés	3:1 ✺
06.10.24	Real Sociedad - Atlético Madrid	1:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
02.10.24	Benfica - Atlético Madrid	4:0 ✺
Spanish LaLiga
29.09.24	Atlético Madrid - Real Madrid	1:1 ✺
26.09.24	Celta de Vigo - Atlético Madrid	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.3 WTLTW
- OSC Lille
French Ligue 1
18.10.24	Monaco - Lille	0:0 ✺
05.10.24	Lille - Toulouse	2:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
02.10.24	Lille - Real Madrid	1:0 ✺
French Ligue 1
28.09.24	Le Havre - Lille	0:3 ✺
21.09.24	Lille - Strasbourg	3:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18.9 TWWWT

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