Match Info

Serie A - Round 31

Date: 17 October 2026, Saturday

Location: MRV Arena (Belo Horizonte)

Referee: Lacerda D. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Globoplay, Premiere
Ecuador	Canal del Futbol, El Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol
Germany	Sportdigital1+, Sportdigital FUSSBALL
Mexico	Azteca Deportes, Disney+
Switzerland	Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Turkey	Spor Smart 2
Usa	Fanatiz


	Atlético Mineiro		Coritiba

	1	X	2
	1.62	3.75	5.25	Watch
	1.66	4.10	4.80
	1.58	3.95	5.30	Watch
	1.70	4.01	5.31
	1.65	4.02	5.1	Watch
	1.67	3.95	5.25
	1.70	3.76	5.35	Watch
	1.66	3.85	4.80
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.66 ↑ (1.53)	3.92 ↓ (4)	5.15 ↓ (6)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 2.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Atlético Mineiro
57.4%

Draw
24.2%

Coritiba
18.5%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

61.1%

23.4%

15.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

63%

22.7%

15.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Atlético Mineiro has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.7%)

Coritiba has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Atlético Mineiro than the current prediction. (+5.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Atlético Mineiro, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Coritiba than the current prediction. (-3.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
80%	0%	20%

Atlético Mineiro - Coritiba Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Atlético MG will win (votes: 4 - 80%). Coritiba will win (votes: 1 - 20%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Atlético MG (votes: 1 - 100%).

New Consensus by Tipsters:

1X2 - Atletico Mineiro (1.67) (votes: 89%) ⭐ Best Value.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Gabriel Delfim (G) 2. Natanael (C) 3. Duarte L. 14. Vitor Hugo 36. Pascini K. 25. Perez T. 5. Alexsander 17. Igor Gomes 39. Cisse M. 27. Minda A. 18. Borbas T.	1. Pedro Morisco (G) 14. Bustos F. 23. Tiago Coser 55. Jacy (C) 26. Bruno Melo 21. Thiago Santos 19. Gomez S. 32. Pedro Rocha 10. Josue 7. Lavega J. 18. Paulo Roberto
Substitutes
11. Bernard 15. Castano K. 28. Cuello 92. Dudu 6. Lodi R. 13. Lyanco 8. Maycon 23. Preciado A. 19. Reinier 31. Robert (G) 30. Victor Hugo 40. Vitao	77. Breno Lopes 6. Felipe Jonatan 5. Fonseca N. 13. Keiller (G) 3. Maicon 17. Ocampo B. 78. Renato Marques 4. Rodrigo Moledo 99. Rodrigo Rodrigues 2. Tinga 50. Tissi 36. Vini Paulista
Coaches
Dominguez E.	Fernando Seabra

Preview

This match features a clash between a top-table contender and a mid-table team (ranked 7th in the Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: ) and 11th in the Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Atlético MG won 2.

Atlético MG is in solid form heading into this fixture (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

Coritiba is experiencing a dip in performance (last 5 matches: 0 wins).

Atlético MG may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Atlético MG has enjoyed a run of consecutive matches in front of its home crowd.

In this matchup, Atlético MG is considered the favorite to take the win.

Confirmed absences for Atlético MG: Everson (Foot Injury) Franco A. (Yellow Cards) Gustavo Scarpa (Muscle Injury) Ruan Tressoldi (Muscle Injury).

Confirmed absences for Coritiba: Lucas Ronier (Knee Injury).

Doubtful / questionable for Atlético MG: Cassierra M. (Injury) Fred (Injury).

Doubtful / questionable for Coritiba: Lucas Taverna (Inactive).

Our forecast points to a victory for Atlético MG in today's match, at odds of 1.59.

In the last 19 head-to-head meetings, Atlético MG has recorded 11 wins, 2 draws, and 6 losses, with a goal aggregate of 26:15 (averaging 1.4:0.8 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Atlético MG against this opponent, the record stands at 6 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses, with 16:7 goals (averaging 1.8:0.8 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
7	Atletico-MG	30	13	8	9	41:35	6	47
11	Coritiba	30	10	9	11	38:48	-10	39

Outrights of Brazilian Serie A for now

Atletico-MG: 0.15%

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Atlético Mineiro
Copa Sudamericana
14.10.26	Atlético Mineiro - Montevideo City Torque	3:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
11.10.26	Atlético Mineiro - Santos	2:1 ✺
08.10.26	Athletico Paranaense - Atlético Mineiro	2:2 ✺
03.10.26	Atlético Mineiro - Red Bull Bragantino	1:0 ✺
19.09.26	Atlético Mineiro - Chapecoense	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.2 WWTWT
- Coritiba
Brazilian Serie A
12.10.26	Coritiba - Botafogo RJ	1:1 ✺
08.10.26	Fluminense - Coritiba	4:0 ✺
19.09.26	Vasco da Gama - Coritiba	5:0 ✺
11.09.26	Coritiba - Athletico Paranaense	3:3 ✺
06.09.26	Coritiba - Mirassol	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.7 TLLTL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie A
19.04.26	Coritiba - Atlético Mineiro	2:0
08.10.23	Atlético Mineiro - Coritiba	1:2
20.05.23	Coritiba - Atlético Mineiro	1:2
14.08.22	Coritiba - Atlético Mineiro	0:1
23.04.22	Atlético Mineiro - Coritiba	2:2
26.12.20	Atlético Mineiro - Coritiba	2:0
06.09.20	Coritiba - Atlético Mineiro	0:1

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