The best margin for this event is 2.5%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Atlético Morelia 58.2%
Draw 23.8%
Leones Negros UdeG 18%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
54.8%
27.3%
17.9%
Our Initial ML Estimation
56.7%
26.4%
17.3%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Atlético Morelia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.4%)
Leones Negros UdeG has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.1%)
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Atlético Morelia than the current prediction. (-1.5%)
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Leones Negros UdeG than the current prediction. (-0.7%)
Atlético Morelia - Leones Negros UdeG Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
22. Pasquel Colin R. (G) 2. Lopez Aburto R. 6. De Buen D. 4. Zamora D. 16. Sandoval R. 8. Martinez J. (C) 20. Aguilar D. 19. Rodriguez M. 10. Dominguez M. 17. Nambo M. 9. del Campo R.
1. Cantu Rodriguez O. M. (G) 161. Escalante J. 21. Gonzalez O. 24. Aguayo J. 5. Torres U. 10. Brigido J. 28. De Jesus Bravo Santiago A. 6. Marchand J. (C) 34. Hernandez S. A. 20. Gil O. 9. Razo L.
Substitutes
13. Andrade A. 15. Botello O. 21. Castellanos E. 14. Castellanos R. 28. Flores A. 1. Galan R. (G) 32. Izarra A. 26. Martinez J. 7. Romero P. 5. Van Rankin J.
168. Alvarado M. 15. Carreon A. 35. Cazares J. 3. Flores L. 19. Loera K. 12. Martin S. (G) 27. Meza U. 11. Perez J. 31. Valenzuela M.
Coaches
Colace H.
Sosa A.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (1 - 0)
23', 1 - 0, del Campo R. ⚽, Dominguez M. (A),
40', Aguilar D. 🟨,
41', Torres U. 🟨,
44', del Campo R. 🟨,
45+2', Aguayo J. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
59', 2 - 0, Zamora D. ⚽, Aguilar D. (A),
65', del Campo R. ↓, Flores A. ↑,
65', Aguilar D. ↓, Andrade A. ↑,
65', Gil O. ↓, Perez J. ↑,
65', Brigido J. ↓, Cazares J. ↑,
70', Dominguez M. ↓, Martinez J. ↑,
70', Rodriguez M. ↓, Castellanos E. ↑,
73', Nambo M. 🟨,
76', De Jesus Bravo Santiago A. ↓, Valenzuela M. ↑,
76', Razo L. ↓, Loera K. ↑,
79', Valenzuela M. 🟨,
81', Nambo M. ↓, Van Rankin J. ↑,
83', Martinez J. 🟨,
88', 🟨,
89', Gonzalez O. 🟥,
90+1', Hernandez S. A. ↓, Meza U. ↑,
Preview
A high-stakes showdown between two teams from the upper tier of the standings (ranked 1st in the Promotion ~ Liga de Expansion MX (Apertura ~ PlayoffsQuarter~finals) and 3rd in the Promotion ~ Liga de Expansion MX (Apertura ~ PlayoffsQuarter~finals)).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Atlético Morelia won 1.
Both teams enter this match with positive momentum from recent weeks.
Atlético Morelia carries the favorite tag into this contest.
Our forecast points to a victory for Atlético Morelia in today's match, at odds of 1.68.
In the last 16 head-to-head meetings, Atlético Morelia has recorded 4 wins, 2 draws, and 10 losses, with a goal aggregate of 11:21 (averaging 0.7:1.3 goals per game).
Specifically in home fixtures for Atlético Morelia against this opponent, the record stands at 3 wins, 0 draws, and 5 losses, with 8:11 goals (averaging 1:1.4 per game).
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Pasquel Colin R. (G) 
del Campo R. 
Gil O. 
Castellanos R. 
Izarra A. 
Colace H. 
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