Match Info

SOUTH AMERICA: COPA LIBERTADORES - GROUP STAGE - ROUND 2

Date: 20 April 2023, Thursday

Location: Estadio Metropolitano Roberto Meléndez (Barranquilla)

Referee: Sampaio W. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	beIN Sports


	Atlético Nacional		FBC Melgar

	1	X	2
	1.73	3.4	5.5	Watch
	1.72	3.3	5.25
	1.7	3.8	4.9
	1.74	3.59	5.44
	1.7	3.25	5
	1.71	3.58	5.2	Watch
	1.72	3.3	5.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.72 ↑ (1.42)	3.46 ↓ (4.37)	5.21 ↓ (7.08)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Atlético Nacional
54.8%

Draw
27.2%

FBC Melgar
18%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

65.5%

21.3%

13.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

66.8%

20.9%

12.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Atlético Nacional has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Atlético Nacional's form might have worsened.

FBC Melgar has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Atlético Nacional than the current prediction. (+12%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Atlético Nacional, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for FBC Melgar than the current prediction. (-5.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for FBC Melgar, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	25%	25%

Atlético Nacional - FBC Melgar Predictions

Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. Atlético Nacional will win (votes: 6 - 50%). Melgar will win (votes: 3 - 25%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 25%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Atlético Nacional: 21.7% – 78.3%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Preview

Both teams are now playing unstable.

Melgar could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Atlético Nacional is a favorite.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Atlético Nacional Medellin
Colombian Primera A
10.04.23	Atlético Nacional - Junior Barranquilla	0:1 ✺
Copa Libertadores
05.04.23	Patronato Parana - Atlético Nacional	1:2 ✺
Colombian Primera A
01.04.23	Deportivo La Equidad - Atlético Nacional	0:0 ✺
25.03.23	Atlético Nacional - Independiente Medellín	1:1 ✺
17.03.23	Deportivo Pereira - Atlético Nacional	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.7 LWTTW
- FBC Melgar
Peruvian Liga 1
14.04.23	FBC Melgar - Cienciano	1:0 ✺
09.04.23	Sport Huancayo - FBC Melgar	1:1 ✺
Copa Libertadores
06.04.23	FBC Melgar - Olimpia Asuncion	1:1 ✺
Peruvian Liga 1
01.04.23	FBC Melgar - Cusco	1:1 ✺
26.03.23	ADT Tarma - FBC Melgar	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.4 WTTTT

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