Match Info

Liga MX - Clausura - Play Offs - Quarter-finals

Date: 2 May 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio Jalisco (Guadalajara)

Referee: Peinaldo Aguirre Y. (Mex)

Where to Watch on TV:


Mexico	Canal 5, TUDN, VIX, ViX Premium
South-america	ViX Latin America
Usa	TUDN App, TUDN, Univision


	Atlas		Cruz Azul

	1	X	2
	4.5	3.3	1.86	Watch
	4.4	3.3	1.85
	4.45	3.25	1.85	Watch
	4.69	3.44	1.92
	4.49	3.44	1.86	Watch
	4	3	1.83
	4.45	3.28	1.84	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.43 ↓ (4.94)	3.29 ↓ (3.98)	1.86 ↑ (1.65)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 2.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Atlas
21.2%

Draw
28.5%

Cruz Azul
50.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

19.1%

23.7%

57.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

18.7%

23.3%

58.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Atlas has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.1%)

Cruz Azul has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Cruz Azul might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Atlas than the current prediction. (-2.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cruz Azul than the current prediction. (+7.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Cruz Azul could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Atlas - Cruz Azul Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Vargas C. (G) 3. Gustavo Ferrareis 28. Capasso M. 21. Schlegel R. 25. Rodriguez J. 26. Rocha A. 11. Gonzalez D. 6. Zaldivar E. 15. Ramirez P. 199. Hernandez S. 19. Aguirre E. (C)	23. Mier K. (G) 22. Rodarte J. 4. Ditta W. 17. Garcia A. 33. Piovi G. 3. Campos O. 20. Paradela J. 8. Palavecino A. 19. Rodriguez C. (C) 29. Rotondi C. 11. Ebere C.
Substitutes
13. Aguirre G. 10. del Prete G. 251. Gamboa L. 8. Garcia M. E. 58. Gonzalez A. 17. Lozano J. 4. Mora A. 44. Pier R. 9. Rodriguez A. 22. Sanchez A. (G)	170. Castro A. 209. Diaz J. 27. Gamboa B. 1. Gudino A. (G) 214. Levy M. 16. Marquez J. 10. Montano A. 194. Morales A. 18. Romero L. 197. Silva I.
Coaches
Cocca D.	Huiqui J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
36', Campos O. 🟨,
41', Rodarte J. 🟨,
43', Piovi G. 🟨,
43', Rodriguez J. 🟨,
45+3', 0 - 1, Rotondi C. ⚽, Paradela J. (A),
2nd Half (2 - 2)
55', 0 - 2, Ebere C. ⚽, Paradela J. (A),
60', Campos O. ↓, Marquez J. ↑,
63', Gonzalez D. ↓, Gamboa L. ↑,
63', Zaldivar E. ↓, Gonzalez A. ↑,
69', 1 - 2, Gonzalez A. ⚽, Gamboa L. (A),
74', Aguirre E. ↓, Rodriguez A. ↑,
81', 2 - 2, Rocha A. (Penalty Awarded),
81', Rocha A. 🟨,
87', 2 - 3, Ebere C. (Penalty Awarded),
87', Ebere C. ↓, Montano A. ↑,
90+4', Paradela J. ↓, Romero L. ↑,
90+4', Palavecino A. ↓, Gamboa B. ↑,

Preview

First leg.

One of the most interesting matches of the day, featuring two top-table teams (ranked 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga MX (Clausura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga MX (Clausura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Atlas won 0.

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

In this match, Cruz Azul is the team to beat.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Atlas won 6 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 23:29. (average 1.2:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Atlas won 4 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 15:16. (average 1.4:1.5).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
6	Atlas	11	5	3	3	17:18	-1	18
7	Cruz Azul	10	5	1	4	19:18	1	16

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Club Atlas
Mexican Liga MX
25.04.26	Club América - Atlas	0:1 ✺
22.04.26	Atlas - Tigres UANL	0:0 ✺
19.04.26	Santos Laguna - Atlas	0:1 ✺
11.04.26	Atlas - Monterrey	0:0 ✺
04.04.26	Club León - Atlas	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 21.1 WTWTL
- Cruz Azul FC
Mexican Liga MX
26.04.26	Cruz Azul - Necaxa	4:1 ✺
21.04.26	Querétaro - Cruz Azul	1:1 ✺
18.04.26	Cruz Azul - Tijuana	1:1 ✺
CONCACAF Champions Cup
14.04.26	Cruz Azul - Los Angeles	1:1 ✺
Mexican Liga MX
11.04.26	Club América - Cruz Azul	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.9 WTTTT

Latest Head to Head

Mexican Liga MX
14.01.26	Cruz Azul - Atlas	2:0
19.07.25	Atlas - Cruz Azul	3:3
11.01.25	Cruz Azul - Atlas	1:1
06.11.24	Atlas - Cruz Azul	2:2
21.04.24	Cruz Azul - Atlas	2:2
01.07.23	Atlas - Cruz Azul	2:0
06.05.23	Cruz Azul - Atlas	0:1

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