Match Info

Copa Sudamericana - Play Offs - Semi-finals

Date: 28 October 2025, Tuesday

Location: MRV Arena (Belo Horizonte)

Referee: Ostojich E. (Uru)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	DirecTV Sports, Disney+, DSports 1, ESPN
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 3, beIN Sports MENA English 1, TOD
Australia	Amazon Prime Video, beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 2
Brazil	Claro TV+, Disney+, ESPN, SBT, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Bulgaria	Max Sport 4
Canada	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports Espanol
Chile	Disney+
Colombia	Disney+, ESPN
Croatia	Arena Sport 1, MAXtv To Go
Germany	Sportdigital FUSSBALL
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 3
Indonesia	Mola TV
Israel	Sport 3
Italy	Como TV
Kosovo	Arena Premium 2
Malaysia	Mola
Mexico	Disney+, ESPN 2
New-zealand	beIN Connect
Paraguay	Tigo Sports+
Peru	Disney+, ESPN
Poland	Polsat Sport 1
Portugal	Sport TV1
Russia	Okko Sport
Serbia	Arena Premium 2
Slovenia	Arena Sport 2
South-america	DGO Latin America, ESPN South
Spain	LaLiga+, M+ Liga de Campeones, Movistar Plus+, #Vamos
Switzerland	Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Uruguay	Disney+, DSports 1
Usa	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports US Espanol, Fanatiz
Venezuela	Disney+, DSports 1, ESPN, Inter


	Atlético Mineiro		Independiente del Valle

	1	X	2
	1.62	3.7	6.25	Watch
	1.6	3.45	5.9	Watch
	1.7	3.5	6.03
	1.63	3.83	5.42	Watch
	1.62	3.5	6.09	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.63 ↑ (1.49)	3.6 ↓ (4.13)	5.94 ↑ (5.82)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Atlético Mineiro
57.8%

Draw
26.3%

Independiente del Valle
15.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

61.9%

22.3%

15.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

64.8%

23.3%

15.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Atlético Mineiro has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.1%)

Independiente del Valle has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Atlético Mineiro than the current prediction. (+7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Atlético Mineiro, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Independiente del Valle than the current prediction. (-0.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
83.3%	16.7%	0%

Atlético Mineiro - Independiente del Valle Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.75 - Atlético MG (1.77) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Atlético Mineiro will win (5 of 6 users predict this - 83.33%).
Confidence interval (95%): 53.51% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Atlético Mineiro will win (6 of 7 users predict this - 85.71%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 8 Selected Experts predict this event. Atlético MG (votes: 7 - 87.5%). Tie (votes: 1 - 12.5%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Everson (G) 11. Bernard 16. Ruan Tressoldi 14. Vitor Hugo 6. Alonso J. (C) 13. Guilherme Arana 8. Fausto Vera 21. Franco A. 17. Igor Gomes 92. Dudu 33. Rony	22. Villar G. (G) 13. Fernandez M. 14. Carabajal M. 5. Schunke R. 15. Cortez G. 6. Alcivar J. 21. Arroyo J. P. 10. Sornoza J. (C) 7. Mercado P. 11. Hoyos M. 77. Spinelli C.
Substitutes
5. Alexsander 77. Biel 42. Cadu 38. Caio Paulista 1. Gabriel Delfim (G) 25. Gabriel Menino 7. Hulk 2. Natanael 20. Patrick Silva 18. Reinier 26. Renzo Saravia 23. Roman I.	12. Bores E. (G) 55. Guagua D. 30. Ibarra R. 53. Lerma J. 19. Loor L. 32. Mendez J. 31. Pata E. 4. Quinonez O. 23. Santamaria T. 52. Vasquez Y. 18. Zabala C. 2. Zarate L.
Coaches
Sampaoli J.	Rabanal J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
36', 1 - 0, Guilherme Arana ⚽, Dudu (A),
43', 2 - 0, Bernard ⚽, Dudu (A),
2nd Half (1 - 1)
51', Arroyo J. P. 🟨,
58', Rony ↓, Hulk ↑,
63', 2 - 1, Spinelli C. ⚽,
69', Arroyo J. P. ↓, Guagua D. ↑,
73', 3 - 1, Hulk ⚽,
75', Dudu ↓, Biel ↑,
75', Fausto Vera ↓, Renzo Saravia ↑,
76', Biel 🟨,
80', Everson 🟨,
82', Mercado P. ↓, Ibarra R. ↑,
82', Cortez G. ↓, Loor L. ↑,
83', Sornoza J. ↓, Zarate L. ↑,
87', Hoyos M. ↓, Vasquez Y. ↑,
88', Franco A. ↓, Alexsander ↑,
88', Bernard ↓, Reinier ↑,

Preview

1st leg result: 1-1. 2nd leg.

Recent performances by Atlético MG have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Ind del Valle is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Atlético MG may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Atlético MG is the team to beat.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Atlético MG won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 8:6. (average 1.6:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Atlético MG won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:1. (average 2:0.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Atlético Mineiro
Brazilian Serie A
25.10.25	Atlético Mineiro - Ceará	1:0 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
21.10.25	Independiente del Valle - Atlético Mineiro	1:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
18.10.25	Corinthians - Atlético Mineiro	1:0 ✺
15.10.25	Atlético Mineiro - Cruzeiro	1:1 ✺
08.10.25	Atlético Mineiro - Sport Recife	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.7 WTLTW
- Independiente del Valle
Copa Sudamericana
21.10.25	Independiente del Valle - Atlético Mineiro	1:1 ✺
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
17.10.25	Orense - Independiente del Valle	1:2 ✺
Ecuadorian Copa
13.10.25	Independiente del Valle - Universidad Católica del Ecuador	1:2 ✺
08.10.25	Gualaceo - Independiente del Valle	0:6 ✺
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
05.10.25	Barcelona Guayaquil - Independiente del Valle	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.9 TWLWW

Latest Head to Head

Copa Sudamericana
21.10.25	Independiente del Valle - Atlético Mineiro	1:1
Copa Libertadores
19.05.22	Atlético Mineiro - Independiente del Valle	3:1
26.04.22	Independiente del Valle - Atlético Mineiro	1:1
06.04.16	Independiente del Valle - Atlético Mineiro	3:2
24.02.16	Atlético Mineiro - Independiente del Valle	1:0

Upcoming Matches