Match Info

Date: 17 October 2026, Saturday


	Aubagne		Le Puy

	1	X	2
	3.10	3.10	2.18
	3.23	3.24	2.23
	2.89	3.23	2.29	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.07 ↑ (2.88)	3.19 ↓ (3.24)	2.23 ↓ (2.29)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Aubagne
29.9%

Draw
28.8%

Le Puy
41.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

31.8%

28.2%

40%

Our Initial ML Estimation

30.8%

27.3%

41.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Aubagne has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.9%)

Le Puy has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Aubagne than the current prediction. (+0.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Le Puy than the current prediction. (+0.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	0%

Aubagne - Le Puy Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

Crucial home points are at stake for a lower-table team looking to climb out of danger (ranked 16th in the Relegation and 8th).

Recent results have been tough for Aubagne (last 5 matches: 1 win).

Le Puy has shown an inconsistent pattern in recent weeks (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

Recently, Aubagne has faced a series of away games on the road.

The probabilities of winning are closely matched between the two contenders.

In the last 4 head-to-head meetings, Aubagne has recorded 2 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss, with a goal aggregate of 5:5 (averaging 1.3:1.3 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Aubagne against this opponent, the record stands at 1 win, 1 draw, and 1 loss, with 3:4 goals (averaging 1:1.3 per game).

Outrights of French Ligue 3 for now

Le Puy-en-Velay: 3.72%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
8	Le Puy-en-Velay	9	4	1	4	11:9	2	13
16	Aubagne	9	2	1	6	6:12	-6	7

Last Results with these Odds

Aubagne - the odds 2.88 are the expected chance of winning is 31.78%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.

Le Puy - the odds 2.29 are the expected chance of winning is 39.97%, but this team recently wins 33% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SC Aubagne Air Bel
French Ligue 3
03.10.26	La Roche VF - Aubagne	3:1 ✺
26.09.26	Fleury 91 - Aubagne	1:2 ✺
19.09.26	Rouen FC - Aubagne	1:0 ✺
12.09.26	Aubagne - Concarneau	1:2 ✺
05.09.26	Paris 13 Atletico - Aubagne	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8 LWLLT
- Le Puy Foot 43 Auvergne
French Ligue 3
03.10.26	Le Puy - Thionville Lusitanos	1:0 ✺
26.09.26	Valenciennes - Le Puy	2:1 ✺
19.09.26	Le Puy - Villefranche	4:1 ✺
12.09.26	Quevilly - Le Puy	2:1 ✺
05.09.26	Le Puy - Orleans	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.7 WLWLT

Latest Head to Head

French Ligue 3
10.04.26	Le Puy - Aubagne	1:2
07.11.25	Aubagne - Le Puy	1:4
French National 1 - Group A
02.12.23	Aubagne - Le Puy	0:0
Coupe De France
16.11.13	Aubagne - Le Puy	2:0

Aubagne - Le Puy: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide