Match Info

Copa Sudamericana - Group Stage - Round 4

Date: 6 May 2026, Wednesday

Location: Estadio Bicentenario de La Florida (Santiago de Chile)

Referee: Ospina J. (Col)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	DirecTV Sports, DSPORTS+ Plus
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA English 2, TOD
Australia	beIN Connect
Brazil	Paramount+
Canada	beIN Connect
Colombia	DSports
Georgia	Silk Sport 1
Israel	Sport 3
Italy	Como TV
New-zealand	beIN Connect
Portugal	Sport TV1
South-america	DGO Latin America
Uruguay	DSPORTS+ Plus
Usa	beIN Connect, Fanatiz
Venezuela	DSPORTS+ Plus


	Audax Italiano		Vasco da Gama

	1	X	2
	3.4	3.2	2.25	Watch
	3.1	3.2	2.3
	3.15	3.05	2.28	Watch
	3.49	3.17	2.29
	3.3	3.06	2.37	Watch
	3.2	3	2.25
	3.4	3.2	2.25	Watch
	2.5	3.25	2.84
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.19 ↑ (2.5)	3.14 ↓ (3.25)	2.35 ↓ (2.84)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Audax Italiano
29.7%

Draw
30.1%

Vasco da Gama
40.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.7%

29%

33.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.1%

30.1%

32%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Audax Italiano has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Audax Italiano's form might have worsened.

Vasco da Gama has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Vasco da Gama's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Audax Italiano than the current prediction. (+9.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Audax Italiano, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Vasco da Gama than the current prediction. (-8.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Vasco da Gama, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
7.1%	57.1%	35.7%

Audax Italiano - Vasco da Gama Predictions

Users Predictions: 13 users predict this event. Audax Italiano will win (votes: 1 - 7.7%). Vasco will win (votes: 5 - 38.5%). It will Tie (votes: 7 - 53.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 26.7% – 80.9%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Vasco (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Ahumada T. (G) 13. Ferrario E. 29. Ortiz M. 4. Pina D. 7. Guajardo P. 6. Sandoval M. 8. Collao M. (C) 23. Matus E. 2. Zenteno V. 21. Chiaverano G. 27. Fuentes M.	13. Daniel Fuzato (G) 96. Paulo Henrique 4. Saldivia A. (C) 43. Lucas Freitas 6. Lucas Piton 88. Cauan Barros 98. JP 18. Hinestroza M. 3. Tche Tche 17. Moreira N. 77. Spinelli C.
Substitutes
30. Ahumada J. 10. Cabral R. 15. Cayuqueo T. 9. Coelho D. 33. Fuenzalida I. 25. Garrido P. (G) 20. Jimenez M. 19. Leyton T. 17. Loyola F. 14. Monreal D. 16. Rojas Munoz O. J. 22. Valdes M.	54. Alison 80. Andre B. 74. Andrey Fernandes 87. Breninho 50. Gustavo Guimaraes 86. Lukas Zuccarello 9. Matheus Franca 37. Pablo (G) 83. Ramon Rique 82. Riquelme Avellar 67. Samuel 64. Walace Fernandes
Coaches
Lema G.	Renato Gaucho

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
5', 1 - 0, Saldivia A. (Own goal),
2nd Half (0 - 2)
46', Tche Tche ↓, Ramon Rique ↑,
46', JP ↓, Matheus Franca ↑,
51', Ahumada T. 🟨,
53', Collao M. 🟨,
57', Matheus Franca 🟨,
62', Ortiz M. 🟥,
63', Fuentes M. 🟨,
64', 1 - 1, Spinelli C. (Penalty Awarded),
71', 1 - 2, Matheus Franca ⚽, Moreira N. (A),
72', Zenteno V. ↓, Rojas Munoz O. J. ↑,
76', Cauan Barros 🟨,
77', Lucas Piton 🟨,
83', Sandoval M. ↓, Loyola F. ↑,
83', Fuentes M. ↓, Fuenzalida I. ↑,
83', Chiaverano G. ↓, Cabral R. ↑,
89', Hinestroza M. ↓, Lukas Zuccarello ↑,
89', Lucas Piton ↓, Walace Fernandes ↑,
89', Moreira N. ↓, Riquelme Avellar ↑,
90', Collao M. ↓, Coelho D. ↑,
90+6', Saldivia A. 🟨,

Preview

In recent matches, Audax Italiano has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Vasco is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Vasco may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Audax Italiano won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:1.

Outrights of Copa Sudamericana for now

Vasco: 20.19%

Last Results with these Odds

Vasco da Gama - the odds 2.84 are the expected chance of winning is 33.22%, but this team recently wins 45% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Audax Italiano
Chilean Copa de la Liga
02.05.26	Audax Italiano - Unión La Calera	1:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
28.04.26	Barracas Central - Audax Italiano	1:1 ✺
Chilean Primera Division
24.04.26	Audax Italiano - Deportes Limache	2:2 ✺
19.04.26	Huachipato - Audax Italiano	3:2 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
14.04.26	Vasco da Gama - Audax Italiano	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18.8 TTTLW
- Vasco da Gama
Brazilian Serie A
03.05.26	Flamengo - Vasco da Gama	2:2 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
30.04.26	Vasco da Gama - Olimpia Asuncion	3:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
26.04.26	Corinthians - Vasco da Gama	1:0 ✺
Copa do Brasil
21.04.26	Paysandu - Vasco da Gama	0:2 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
18.04.26	Vasco da Gama - São Paulo	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.1 TWLWW

Latest Head to Head

Copa Sudamericana
14.04.26	Vasco da Gama - Audax Italiano	1:2

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