Match Info

BOLIVIA: Division Profesional - Clausura - Round 27

Date: 11 December 2024, Wednesday

Location: Estadio Sudamericano Félix Capriles (Cochabamba)

Referee: Aleman J. (Bol)

Where to Watch on TV:


Bolivia	Tigo Sports 1, Tigo Sports App


	Aurora		Royal Pari

	1	X	2
	1.22	5.75	15	Watch
	1.2	5.25	12
	1.22	5.6	13	Watch
	1.24	5.6	13.88
	1.25	5.1	13.92	Watch
	1.2	5.5	15
	1.21	5.69	15.4	Watch
	1.22	5.6	13
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.22 ↓ (1.41)	5.51 ↑ (4.4)	13.9 ↑ (6.73)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 5.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Aurora
76.4%

Draw
16.9%

Royal Pari
6.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

65.4%

20.9%

13.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

70.4%

19.4%

12.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Aurora has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+11%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Aurora's performance.

Royal Pari has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Royal Pari might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Aurora than the current prediction. (-6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Aurora that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Royal Pari than the current prediction. (+6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Royal Pari could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
92.3%	0%	7.7%

Aurora - Royal Pari Predictions

Users Predictions: Aurora will win (11 of 12 users predict this - 91.67%).
Confidence interval (95%): 76.03% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
99. Akologo D. (G) 3. Barboza L. 24. Robles D. 33. Enciso C. 10. Torrico J. 9. Simisterra R. 6. Sejas C. 26. Torrico D. 27. Flores A. 77. Serginho 18. Reinoso J.	13. Mendez D. (G) 72. Gil S. 29. Padilha Hallysson 23. Quinones Y. 3. Moriceau T. 91. Ubah B. 8. Moreno A. 24. Padilla C. 5. Crescencio L. 9. Matheus Alves 7. Thiago
Substitutes
14. Aranibar B. 21. Ballivian R. 7. Blanco O. 11. Bustamante A. 2. Cabral M. 12. Cardenas L. (G) 22. Guttierrez J. 16. Martinez Y. 31. Michelli E. 20. Sanchez A. 8. Torrico D. 28. Vaca O.	77. Adolfo E. 17. Bonilla M. 11. Jaquez J. M. 18. Justiniano S. 1. Pena I. (G) 87. Pena S. 27. Perez J. 12. Ribera J. 32. Zurita A.
Coaches
Orteman S.	de la Torre D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
45+3', Torrico J. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 3)
54', Padilha Hallysson 🟨,
64', Moreno A. ↓, Zurita A. ↑,
64', Ubah B. ↓, Adolfo E. ↑,
64', Torrico J. ↓, Torrico D. ↑,
64', Simisterra R. ↓, Blanco O. ↑,
68', 0 - 1, Matheus Alves ⚽,
70', 0 - 2, Matheus Alves ⚽, Zurita A. (A),
78', Flores A. ↓, Martinez Y. ↑,
78', Barboza L. ↓, Bustamante A. ↑,
79', 0 - 3, Matheus Alves ⚽, Padilha Hallysson (A),
85', Moriceau T. ↓, Perez J. ↑,
85', Padilla C. ↓, Bonilla M. ↑,
85', Matheus Alves ↓, Ribera J. ↑,

Preview

One of the leader and one of the outsider will play in this match (ranked 4 and 15).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Aurora won 2.

Aurora is in real good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Recent matches Royal Pari is playing unpredictable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Aurora could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Aurora is certain favorite.

Last 19 head-to-head matches Aurora won 4 matches, drawn 6 matches, lost 9 matches and goals 20:32 (average 1.1:1.7).

Including matches at home between the teams Aurora won 4 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 13:16 (average 1.4:1.8).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Club Aurora
Bolivian Division Profesional
08.12.24	Jorge Wilstermann - Aurora	1:3 ✺
03.12.24	Blooming - Aurora	1:1 ✺
30.11.24	Aurora - Real Santa Cruz	7:1 ✺
26.11.24	San Antonio Bulo Bulo - Aurora	3:3 ✺
24.11.24	Aurora - The Strongest	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.4 WTWTW
- Royal Pari FC
Bolivian Division Profesional
07.12.24	Real Tomayapo - Royal Pari	1:0 ✺
04.12.24	Royal Pari - Oriente Petrolero	2:1 ✺
30.11.24	Bolívar - Royal Pari	5:0 ✺
27.11.24	Royal Pari - Nacional Potosí	2:0 ✺
23.11.24	Royal Pari - Jorge Wilstermann	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10 LWLWL

Latest Head to Head

Bolivian Division Profesional
18.08.24	Royal Pari - Aurora	1:1
06.04.24	Royal Pari - Aurora	0:0
20.03.24	Aurora - Royal Pari	4:1
19.10.23	Royal Pari - Aurora	2:2
29.04.23	Aurora - Royal Pari	3:0
15.08.22	Aurora - Royal Pari	2:1
19.08.21	Royal Pari - Aurora	1:0

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