Match Info

Ligue 1 - Round 26

Date: 13 March 2026, Friday

Location: Stade Vélodrome (Marseille)

Referee: Bollengier M. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Olympique Marseille		Auxerre

	1	X	2
	1.44	4.5	7	Watch
	1.43	4.4	7.8
	1.46	4.75	7.39
	1.44	4.66	7.17	Watch
	1.4	4.33	6.5
	1.46	4.62	7.56	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.44 ↓ (1.48)	4.54 ↑ (4.5)	7.24 ↑ (6.31)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Olympique Marseille
66%

Draw
20.9%

Auxerre
13.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

64%

21%

15%

Our Initial ML Estimation

66.7%

21.9%

14.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Olympique Marseille has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2%)

Auxerre has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Olympique Marseille than the current prediction. (+0.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Auxerre than the current prediction. (+1.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
84.7%	10.2%	5.1%

Olympique Marseille - Auxerre Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1 - Marseille (1.67) (votes: 5 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 4 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

AH +1.5 - Auxerre (1.67) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Olympique Marseille will win (50 of 57 users predict this - 87.72%).
Confidence interval (95%): 79.2% – 96.24%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Olympique Marseille will win (18 of 18 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 24 Selected Experts predict this event. Marseille (votes: 23 - 95.8%). Auxerre (votes: 1 - 4.2%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Rulli G. (G) 22. Weah T. 28. Pavard B. 4. Egan-Riley C. 32. Medina F. 19. Kondogbia G. 23. Hojbjerg P. (C) 10. Greenwood M. 27. Timber Q. 14. Paixao I. 17. Aubameyang P.	16. Leon D. (G) 24. Okoh B. 20. Diomande S. 92. Akpa C. 27. Sy L. 42. Owusu E. (C) 5. Danois K. 22. Oppegard F. 7. Casimir J. 9. Mara S. 19. Namaso D.
Substitutes
8. Abdelli H. 12. De Lange J. (G) 33. Emerson 9. Gouiri A. 78. Lago E. 6. Nnadi T. 11. Nwaneri E. 20. Traore H. J. 18. Vermeeren A.	8. Ahamada N. 40. De Percin T. (G) 18. Diousse A. 28. Faivre R. 14. Mensah G. 31. Rodin R. 29. Senaya M. 4. Sierralta F. 41. Zaddy Y.
Coaches
Beye H.	Pelissier C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
22', Medina F. 🟨,
37', Egan-Riley C. 🟨,
45', Okoh B. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
62', Egan-Riley C. ↓, Gouiri A. ↑,
63', Kondogbia G. ↓, Emerson ↑,
67', Mara S. ↓, Faivre R. ↑,
67', Sy L. ↓, Senaya M. ↑,
75', Casimir J. ↓, Ahamada N. ↑,
78', Paixao I. 🟨,
79', 1 - 0, Gouiri A. ⚽,
88', Okoh B. ↓, Rodin R. ↑,
90+1', Timber Q. 🟨,
90+3', Greenwood M. ↓, Nwaneri E. ↑,
90+3', Aubameyang P. ↓, Nnadi T. ↑,
90+5', Diomande S. 🟨,
90+5', Paixao I. ↓, Traore H. J. ↑,

Preview

A leader and an outsider will face off in this match (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: ) and 16 in the zone Ligue 1 (Promotion ~ Play Offs: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Marseille won 3.

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Auxerre may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Marseille is the undisputed favorite.

There will not play in Marseille: Aguerd N. (Groin Injury)

There will not play in Auxerre: Buayi-Kiala N. (Knee Injury) Sinayoko L. (Yellow Cards)

There are questionable in Marseille: Nadir B. (Injury)

There are questionable in Auxerre: Coulibaly L. (Injury) El Azzouzi O. (Injury)

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Marseille won 5 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 11:7. (average 1.6:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Marseille won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 6:4. (average 2:1.3).

Outrights of French Ligue 1 for now

Marseille: 1.19% Auxerre: 0.23%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
10	Auxerre	5	2	0	3	7:12	-5	6
17	Marseille	5	1	0	4	7:8	-1	3

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Olympique Marseille
French Ligue 1
07.03.26	Toulouse - Olympique Marseille	0:1 ✺
Coupe De France
04.03.26	Olympique Marseille - Toulouse	2:3 penalties ✺
French Ligue 1
01.03.26	Olympique Marseille - Lyon	3:2 ✺
20.02.26	Brest - Olympique Marseille	2:0 ✺
14.02.26	Olympique Marseille - Strasbourg	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.1 WLWLT
- AJ Auxerre
French Ligue 1
07.03.26	Auxerre - Strasbourg	0:0 ✺
01.03.26	Lorient - Auxerre	2:2 ✺
22.02.26	Auxerre - Rennes	0:3 ✺
15.02.26	Metz - Auxerre	1:3 ✺
08.02.26	Auxerre - Paris FC	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13 TTLWT

Latest Head to Head

French Ligue 1
01.11.25	Auxerre - Olympique Marseille	0:1
22.02.25	Auxerre - Olympique Marseille	3:0
08.11.24	Olympique Marseille - Auxerre	1:3
30.04.23	Olympique Marseille - Auxerre	2:1
03.09.22	Auxerre - Olympique Marseille	0:2
Coupe De France
10.02.21	Auxerre - Olympique Marseille	0:2
French Ligue 1
13.05.12	Olympique Marseille - Auxerre	3:0

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