Match Info

BRAZIL: Serie B - Round 36

Date: 10 November 2024, Sunday

Location: Ressacada (Florianópolis)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Amazon Prime Video, Canal GOAT, Claro TV+, Premiere, Sky+, TV Brasil, Vivo Play, Zapping


	Avaí		Mirassol

	1	X	2
	3.25	2.8	2.5	Watch
	2.95	2.8	2.5
	3	2.9	2.55
	3.25	2.92	2.62
	3.18	2.8	2.55	Watch
	3	3	2.4
	3.05	3.04	2.47	Watch
	3	2.9	2.55
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.09 ↑ (2.54)	2.9 ↑ (2.87)	2.52 ↓ (2.96)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Avaí
30.4%

Draw
32.4%

Mirassol
37.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.4%

32.2%

31.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.3%

31.2%

32.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Avaí has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Avaí's form might have worsened.

Mirassol has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Mirassol's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Avaí than the current prediction. (+4.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mirassol than the current prediction. (-4.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
27.3%	54.5%	18.2%

Avaí - Mirassol Predictions

Users Predictions: 11 users predict this event. Avaí will win (votes: 3 - 27.3%). Mirassol will win (votes: 2 - 18.2%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 54.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 25.1% – 83.9%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
31. Cesar Augusto (G) 63. Marcos Vinicius 3. Tiago Pagnussat 95. Jonathan Costa 33. Mario Sergio 72. Rodrigo Santos 6. Willian Maranhao 21. Pedro Castro 78. Andrey 9. Vagner Love (C) 20. Gaspar	23. Alex Muralha (G) 19. Lucas Ramon 34. Joao Victor 4. Luiz Otavio 37. Zeca 25. Neto Moura 8. Danielzinho 27. Gabriel (C) 77. Iury Castilho 49. Dellatorre 7. Fernandinho
Substitutes
19. Joao Paulo 93. Judson 11. Mauricio Garcez 25. Natanael 66. Otavio Passos (G) 27. Pedrinho 4. Roberto Rosa 28. Ronaldo Henrique 14. Vilar 90. Willian Pottker	2. Alex Silva 16. Bruno Matias 10. Chico Kim 29. Cristian Renato 99. Leo Gamalho 3. Lucas Gazal 98. Marquinhos 1. Vanderlei (G) 31. Ze Mario
Coaches
Moreira E.	Mozart

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
39', Neto Moura 🟨,
41', Gaspar 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
59', Andrey ↓, Willian Pottker ↑,
70', Rodrigo Santos ↓, Pedrinho ↑,
77', Neto Moura ↓, Chico Kim ↑,
77', Iury Castilho ↓, Leo Gamalho ↑,
80', Willian Maranhao ↓, Judson ↑,
80', Gaspar ↓, Mauricio Garcez ↑,
85', Fernandinho ↓, Cristian Renato ↑,
85', Zeca ↓, Alex Silva ↑,
90+2', Dellatorre ↓, Lucas Gazal ↑,

Preview

Watch a game between a team from the middle of a tournament table and a team which is a leader now (ranked 12 and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie A Betano).

Avaí is in awful shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Mirassol is in a first-rate shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

The chances to win of two teams are almost the same in this match.

Last 3 head-to-head matches Avaí won 1 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 3:2 (average 1:0.7).

Including matches at home between the teams Avaí won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 1:0

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Avaí
Brazilian Serie B
03.11.24	Ceará - Avaí	2:0 ✺
25.10.24	Avaí - Vila Nova	3:0 ✺
22.10.24	Grêmio Novorizontino - Avaí	2:0 ✺
18.10.24	Amazonas - Avaí	2:1 ✺
11.10.24	Avaí - América Mineiro	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.3 LWLLT
- Mirassol
Brazilian Serie B
05.11.24	Mirassol - Coritiba	4:1 ✺
26.10.24	Mirassol - Ponte Preta	3:0 ✺
22.10.24	CRB Maceio - Mirassol	0:1 ✺
19.10.24	Mirassol - Grêmio Novorizontino	1:0 ✺
12.10.24	Santos - Mirassol	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.6 WWWWL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie B
23.07.24	Mirassol - Avaí	0:0
01.08.23	Mirassol - Avaí	2:2
22.04.23	Avaí - Mirassol	1:0

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