Match Info

Copa do Nordeste - Play Offs - Semi-finals

Date: 20 August 2025, Wednesday

Location: Arena Fonte Nova (Salvador)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Claro TV+, Disney+, ESPN 2, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Usa	Fanatiz


	Bahia		Ceará

	1	X	2
	1.73	3.5	4.75
	1.93	3.1	3.9
	1.7	3.3	4.55
	1.72	3.45	5.25
	1.78	3.37	4.62	Watch
	1.95	3	3.8
	1.74	3.52	4.78	Watch
	1.68	3.3	4.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.78 ↑ (1.69)	3.32 ↓ (3.38)	4.56 ↓ (4.88)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Bahia
51.9%

Draw
27.8%

Ceará
20.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

54.2%

27.1%

18.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

55.9%

26.3%

18.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Bahia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.3%)

Ceará has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bahia than the current prediction. (+4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ceará than the current prediction. (-2.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	50%	0%

Bahia - Ceará Predictions

Users Predictions: 6 users predict this event. Bahia will win (votes: 3 - 50%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 50%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Bahia (votes: 1 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.25 - Ceará (2.03) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Bahia (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Ceará (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
96. Ronaldo Strada (G) 13. Arias S. 33. David Duarte 21. Ramos S. 46. Luciano Juba 19. Caio Alexandre 6. Jean Lucas 10. Everton Ribeiro (C) 7. Ademir 12. Willian Jose 37. Kayky	94. Bruno Ferreira (G) 70. Fabiano 3. Marllon (C) 23. Willian Machado 2. Ramos R. 20. Diego 88. Fernando Sobral 10. Lucas Mugni 27. Galeano A. 9. Pedro Raul 11. Aylon
Substitutes
8. Cauly 1. Danilo Fernandes (G) 3. Gabriel Xavier 25. Iago Borduchi 97. Juninho 26. Nicolas Acevedo 5. Rezende 11. Rodrigo 17. Rodriguez L. 77. Tiago 70. Vitinho 66. Ze Guilherme	33. Eder 15. Gabriel Lacerda 80. Guilherme Luiz 97. Lourenco 31. Lucas Lima 8. Matheus Araujo 30. Nicolas 7. Pedro Henrique 1. Richard (G) 26. Richardson
Coaches
Mucke R.	Leo Conde

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
24', Caio Alexandre ↓, Nicolas Acevedo ↑,
45', Everton Ribeiro 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
49', Fernando Sobral 🟨,
60', Willian Jose ↓, Rodriguez L. ↑,
60', Kayky ↓, Cauly ↑,
61', Ramos R. 🟨,
62', Luciano Juba 🟨,
65', Ramos R. ↓, Nicolas ↑,
71', Lucas Mugni ↓, Lourenco ↑,
72', Aylon ↓, Pedro Henrique ↑,
72', Fernando Sobral ↓, Richardson ↑,
76', 🟨,
80', Nicolas Acevedo 🟨,
84', Jean Lucas ↓, Rodrigo ↑,
84', Ademir ↓, Tiago ↑,
88', Marllon 🟨,
90+4', 1 - 0, Tiago ⚽, Everton Ribeiro (A),
90+6', 🟨,

Preview

One of today’s top clashes will feature two teams fighting for the top spots (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa do Nordeste (Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa do Nordeste (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Bahia won 4.

Bahia is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Ceará's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Ceará may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Bahia is a strong favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Bahia won 9 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 23:22. (average 1.2:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Bahia won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 11:11. (average 1.1:1.1).

Last Results with these Odds

Bahia - the odds 1.69 are the expected chance of winning is 54.19%, but this team recently wins 100% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- EC Bahia
Brazilian Serie A
16.08.25	Corinthians - Bahia	1:2 ✺
09.08.25	Bahia - Fluminense	3:3 ✺
Copa do Brasil
06.08.25	Retrô Brasil - Bahia	0:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
02.08.25	Sport Recife - Bahia	0:0 ✺
Copa do Brasil
30.07.25	Bahia - Retrô Brasil	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.2 WTTTW
- Ceará SC
Brazilian Serie A
16.08.25	Ceará - Red Bull Bragantino	1:0 ✺
10.08.25	Palmeiras - Ceará	2:1 ✺
03.08.25	Ceará - Flamengo	1:1 ✺
27.07.25	Cruzeiro - Ceará	1:2 ✺
23.07.25	Ceará - Mirassol	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 23.3 WLTWL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie A
21.04.25	Bahia - Ceará	1:0
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
26.03.25	Bahia - Ceará	3:2
06.03.24	Ceará - Bahia	1:2
Brazilian Serie A
27.10.21	Bahia - Ceará	1:1
17.06.21	Ceará - Bahia	1:2
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
08.05.21	Ceará - Bahia	1:2
01.05.21	Bahia - Ceará	0:1

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