Match Info

BRAZIL: Serie A Betano - Round 28

Date: 29 September 2024, Sunday

Location: Arena Fonte Nova (Salvador)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Amazon Prime Video, Claro TV+, Premiere, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Chile	MEGOGO
Peru	Liga 1 Play


	Bahia		Criciúma

	1	X	2
	1.55	4.1	6	Watch
	1.57	4	5.75
	1.55	4.2	5.5
	1.57	4.29	5.94
	1.57	4.18	5.77	Watch
	1.5	4	6
	1.57	4.15	5.75	Watch
	1.55	4.2	5.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.55 ↓ (1.69)	4.14 ↑ (3.79)	5.78 ↑ (4.95)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Bahia
60.8%

Draw
22.8%

Criciúma
16.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

56%

24.9%

19.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

58.7%

23.8%

18.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Bahia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.8%)

Criciúma has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Bahia than the current prediction. (-2.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Criciúma than the current prediction. (+1.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Bahia - Criciúma Predictions

Users Predictions: Bahia will win (8 of 8 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Marcos Felipe (G) 13. Arias S. 3. Gabriel Xavier 4. Kanu 46. Luciano Juba 19. Caio Alexandre 6. Jean Lucas 10. Everton Ribeiro (C) 8. Cauly 9. Everaldo 16. Thaciano	1. Gustavo (G) 27. Claudinho 3. Rodrigo (C) 29. Figueiredo T. 22. Marcelo Hermes 88. Gustavo Barreto 85. Patrick de Paula 7. Fellipe Mateus 10. Marquinhos Gabriel 2. Allano 11. Bolasie Y.
Substitutes
7. Ademir 23. Adriel (G) 40. Cicinho 33. David Duarte 14. de Pena C. 2. Gilberto 25. Iago 21. Rafael Ratao 17. Rodriguez L. 15. Victor Cuesta 31. Vitor Hugo 20. Yago Felipe	25. Alisson (G) 45. Arthur Caike 20. Dudu 15. Eliedson 9. Felipe Vizeu 5. Higor Meritao 50. Jhonata Robert 13. Jonathan 12. Kaua Moroso (G) 28. Pedro Rocha 33. Walisson Maia 77. Werik Popo
Coaches
Rogerio Ceni	Claudio Tencati

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
33', 1 - 0, Cauly ⚽, Arias S. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
52', Allano 🟨,
65', Everaldo ↓, Rodriguez L. ↑,
65', Thaciano ↓, Rafael Ratao ↑,
69', Fellipe Mateus ↓, Arthur Caike ↑,
70', Patrick de Paula ↓, Jhonata Robert ↑,
70', Bolasie Y. ↓, Dudu ↑,
74', Cauly ↓, Ademir ↑,
78', Allano ↓, Felipe Vizeu ↑,
78', Jean Lucas ↓, de Pena C. ↑,
79', Caio Alexandre ↓, Yago Felipe ↑,
81', Everton Ribeiro 🟨,
84', Marquinhos Gabriel ↓, Pedro Rocha ↑,
88', Arthur Caike 🟨,

Preview

One of which is a team leader another one is from mid-table (ranked 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Qualification: ) and 14).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Bahia won 3.

Bahia is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches Criciúma is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Criciúma could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Bahia is a favorite.

There will not play in Bahia: Biel (Injury) Nicolas Acevedo (Injury)

There will not play in Criciúma: Angel W. (Injury) Pedro Rocha (Knee Injury)

Last 13 head-to-head matches Bahia won 6 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 17-13.

Including matches at home between the teams Bahia won 4 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 8-3.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- EC Bahia
Brazilian Serie A
21.09.24	Fortaleza - Bahia	4:1 ✺
15.09.24	Bahia - Atlético Mineiro	3:0 ✺
Copa do Brasil
12.09.24	Flamengo - Bahia	1:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
01.09.24	Red Bull Bragantino - Bahia	2:1 ✺
Copa do Brasil
28.08.24	Bahia - Flamengo	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.2 LWLLL
- Criciúma EC
Brazilian Serie A
25.09.24	Grêmio - Criciúma	1:2 ✺
22.09.24	Criciúma - Athletico Paranaense	0:0 ✺
15.09.24	Palmeiras - Criciúma	5:0 ✺
31.08.24	Cuiabá - Criciúma	2:1 ✺
28.08.24	Criciúma - Red Bull Bragantino	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.8 WTLLW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie A
16.06.24	Criciúma - Bahia	2:2
Copa do Brasil
23.05.24	Criciúma - Bahia	0:2
30.04.24	Bahia - Criciúma	1:0
Brazilian Serie B
08.09.22	Criciúma - Bahia	0:0
04.06.22	Bahia - Criciúma	2:1
30.09.16	Bahia - Criciúma	2:0
14.06.16	Criciúma - Bahia	3:2

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