Match Info

Serie A Betano - Round 5

Date: 11 March 2026, Wednesday

Location: Arena Fonte Nova (Salvador)

Where to Watch on TV:


Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 2
Brazil	Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Ecuador	Canal del Futbol
Kosovo	Arena Premium 3
Serbia	Arena Premium 3


	Bahia		Vitória Salvador

	1	X	2
	1.66	3.6	5.25	Watch
	1.72	3.45	4.95
	1.75	3.68	5.38
	1.7	3.78	5.16	Watch
	1.67	3.4	5
	1.71	3.69	5.66	Watch
	1.74	3.65	4.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.71 ↓ (1.73)	3.61 ↑ (3.45)	5.17 ↑ (4.65)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Bahia
55.5%

Draw
26.2%

Vitória Salvador
18.3%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

53.4%

26.8%

19.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

55.3%

27.8%

19.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Bahia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.1%)

Vitória Salvador has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Bahia than the current prediction. (-0.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Vitória Salvador than the current prediction. (+0.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
58.3%	33.3%	8.3%

Bahia - Vitória Salvador Predictions

Users Predictions: 11 users predict this event. Bahia will win (votes: 7 - 63.6%). Vitória will win (votes: 1 - 9.1%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 27.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Bahia: 35.2% – 92%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Bahia (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Ronaldo Strada (G) 5. Nicolas Acevedo 3. Gabriel Xavier 21. Ramos S. 46. Luciano Juba 14. Erick 6. Jean Lucas 11. Rodrigo 99. Olivera C. 12. Willian Jose (C) 16. Erick Pulga	1. Lucas Arcanjo (G) 45. Nathan Mendes 25. Caca 43. Edu 13. Ramon 95. Caique Goncalves 44. Baralhas (C) 6. Emmanuel Martinez 7. Marinho 79. Renato Kayzer 10. Matheuzinho
Substitutes
7. Ademir 63. David Martins 89. Dell 27. Everaldo 31. Gomez R. 25. Iago Borduchi 34. Joao Paulo (G) 43. Luiz Gustavo 44. Marcos Victor 15. Michel Araujo 23. Sanabria M. 67. Wendel Passos	28. Anderson 4. Camutanga 17. Cantalapiedra A. 26. Edenilson 33. Erick 23. Fabricio 22. Gabriel (G) 83. Jamerson 31. Lopez R. 98. Matheusinho 11. Osvaldo 8. Ronald Lopes
Coaches
Mucke R.	Jair Ventura

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
4', Lucas Arcanjo 🟨,
5', Willian Jose (Penalty Awarded),
35', Ramos S. 🟨,
45+2', 0 - 1, Ramon ⚽,
45+6', 1 - 1, Jean Lucas ⚽, Willian Jose (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Renato Kayzer ↓, Fabricio ↑,
61', Erick Pulga ↓, Sanabria M. ↑,
61', Marinho ↓, Erick ↑,
62', Willian Jose ↓, Everaldo ↑,
71', Edu ↓, Camutanga ↑,
71', Matheuzinho ↓, Cantalapiedra A. ↑,
74', Erick ↓, Michel Araujo ↑,
74', Olivera C. ↓, Ademir ↑,
89', Rodrigo ↓, David Martins ↑,
90+6', Ramon ↓, Jamerson ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Bahia won 3.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Bahia may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Vitória has had a series of home games.

In this match, Bahia is seen as the favorite.

There will not play in Bahia: Ruan Pablo (Injury)

There will not play in Vitória: Claudinho (Knee Injury) Fintelman (Hip Injury) Lopez R. (Injury) Ramos R. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Bahia: Kanu (Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Bahia won 8 matches, drew 7 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 25:21. (average 1.3:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Bahia won 6 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 13:7. (average 1.2:0.6).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
7	Bahia	31	13	10	8	44:39	5	49
13	Vitoria	31	10	7	14	34:45	-11	37

Outrights of Brazilian Serie A for now

Bahia: 0.12%

Last Results with these Odds

Bahia - the odds 1.73 are the expected chance of winning is 53.38%, but this team recently wins 78% of matches with these odds.

Vitória Salvador - the odds 4.65 are the expected chance of winning is 19.86%, but this team recently wins 38% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- EC Bahia
Brazilian Campeonato Baiano
07.03.26	Bahia - Vitória Salvador	2:1 ✺
28.02.26	Bahia - Juazeirense	4:2 ✺
Copa Libertadores
25.02.26	Bahia - OHiggins	2:2 penalties ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Baiano
21.02.26	Atlético de Alagoinhas - Bahia	2:4 ✺
Copa Libertadores
18.02.26	OHiggins - Bahia	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.8 WWLWL
- EC Vitória Salvador
Brazilian Campeonato Baiano
07.03.26	Bahia - Vitória Salvador	2:1 ✺
01.03.26	Vitória Salvador - Jacuipense	2:1 penalties ✺
22.02.26	Vitória Salvador - Galícia	3:0 ✺
18.02.26	Vitória Salvador - Bahia de Feira	1:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
10.02.26	Vitória Salvador - Flamengo	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.2 LWWWL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Baiano
07.03.26	Bahia - Vitória Salvador	2:1
25.01.26	Vitória Salvador - Bahia	0:1
Brazilian Serie A
16.10.25	Vitória Salvador - Bahia	2:1
18.05.25	Bahia - Vitória Salvador	2:1
Brazilian Campeonato Baiano
23.03.25	Vitória Salvador - Bahia	1:1
16.03.25	Bahia - Vitória Salvador	2:0
01.02.25	Bahia - Vitória Salvador	0:0

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