Match Info

Copa Libertadores - Group Stage - Round 4

Date: 5 May 2026, Tuesday

Location: Estadio Monumental Banco Pichincha (Guayaquil)

Referee: Betancur Gutierrez C. A. (Col)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	Sporty TV, Sporty TV App
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Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 1, TOD
Australia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2
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Chile	Disney+, ESPN 5
Colombia	Disney+, ESPN
Croatia	Arena Sport 1, MAXtv To Go
Ecuador	ESPN
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Italy	Como TV
Kosovo	Arena Premium 2
Mexico	Disney+, ESPN 2
New-zealand	beIN Connect
Paraguay	ESPN
Peru	Disney+, ESPN
Portugal	Sport TV1
Serbia	Arena Premium 2
Spain	M+ Liga de Campeones
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Venezuela	Disney+, ESPN, Inter
World	Onefootball, Pluto TV


	Barcelona Guayaquil		Boca Juniors

	1	X	2
	4.75	3.25	1.85	Watch
	4.45	3.15	1.88	Watch
	4.91	3.24	1.93
	4.77	3.3	1.85	Watch
	4.6	3	1.85	Watch
	4.68	3.24	1.92	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.69 ↑ (3.06)	3.2 ↓ (3.2)	1.88 ↓ (2.34)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Barcelona Guayaquil
20.1%

Draw
29.6%

Boca Juniors
50.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

30.7%

29.3%

40%

Our Initial ML Estimation

30.5%

29.1%

40.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Barcelona Guayaquil has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Barcelona Guayaquil's form might have worsened.

Boca Juniors has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Boca Juniors's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Barcelona Guayaquil than the current prediction. (+10.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Barcelona Guayaquil, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Boca Juniors than the current prediction. (-10%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Boca Juniors, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	37.5%	62.5%

Barcelona Guayaquil - Boca Juniors Predictions

Users Predictions: 16 users predict this event. Boca Juniors will win (votes: 10 - 62.5%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 37.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Boca Juniors: 38.8% – 86.2%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Boca Juniors (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Contreras J. (G) 18. Carabali B. 33. Baez J. 14. Rangel A. 4. Vallecilla G. 32. Lugo M. 28. Quinonez Ruiz J. R. (C) 26. Castillo B. 8. Celiz M. 51. Wila J. 9. Benedetto D.	12. Brey L. (G) 23. Weigandt M. 2. Di Lollo L. 32. Costa A. 3. Blanco L. 25. Ascacibar S. 5. Paredes L. (C) 18. Delgado M. 36. Aranda T. 9. Gimenez M. 16. Miguel Merentiel
Substitutes
22. Cevallos J. (G) 35. Intriago J. 23. Martinez T. 70. Mejia M. 12. Mina J. 5. Montano C. 11. Parrales M. 15. Perlaza J. 25. Perlaza R. 3. Sosa L. 27. Vargas W. 21. Villalba H.	15. Alarcon Cepeda W. H. 29. Angel Romero 24. Barinaga J. 30. Belmonte T. 27. Braida M. 4. Figal J. 13. Garcia J. (G) 11. Janson L. 26. Pellegrino M. 20. Velasco A. 7. Zeballos E. 22. Zenon K.
Coaches
Farias Acosta C. A.	Ubeda C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
10', Aranda T. 🟨,
24', Brey L. ↓, Garcia J. ↑,
33', Ascacibar S. 🟥,
33', Miguel Merentiel 🟨,
38', Castillo B. 🟨,
45+1', Benedetto D. 🟨,
45+6', Celiz M. 🟥,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Benedetto D. ↓, Intriago J. ↑,
53', Carabali B. 🟨,
61', Castillo B. ↓, Villalba H. ↑,
61', Aranda T. ↓, Zeballos E. ↑,
61', Miguel Merentiel ↓, Velasco A. ↑,
68', Lugo M. 🟨,
71', Wila J. ↓, Parrales M. ↑,
73', 1 - 0, Villalba H. ⚽, Quinonez Ruiz J. R. (A),
81', Rangel A. 🟨,
84', Carabali B. ↓, Montano C. ↑,
84', Quinonez Ruiz J. R. ↓, Vargas W. ↑,
89', Delgado M. ↓, Angel Romero ↑,
90', Costa A. 🟨,
90+5', Velasco A. 🟨,

Preview

Recent performances by Barcelona have been up and down (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Boca Juniors is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Boca Juniors may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Boca Juniors has had a series of away games.

Boca Juniors is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

There will not play in Barcelona: Rojas J. (Injury)

There will not play in Boca Juniors: Bareiro A. (Red Card) Battaglia R. (Achilles Tendon Injury) Carlos Palacios (Knee Injury) Cavani E. (Lower Back Injury) Herrera A. (Muscle Injury) Marchesin A. (Injury)

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Barcelona won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 2:6. (average 0.4:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Barcelona won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 2:2. (average 1:1).

Last Results with these Odds

Boca Juniors - the odds 2.34 are the expected chance of winning is 40.05%, but this team recently wins 25% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Barcelona Guayaquil
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
02.05.26	Barcelona Guayaquil - Manta	1:1 ✺
Copa Libertadores
29.04.26	Barcelona Guayaquil - Universidad Católica	1:2 ✺
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
26.04.26	Orense - Barcelona Guayaquil	1:1 ✺
22.04.26	Barcelona Guayaquil - Mushuc Runa	2:1 ✺
19.04.26	Deportivo Macará - Barcelona Guayaquil	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3 TLTWL
- Boca Juniors
Argentinian Liga Profesional
02.05.26	Central Córdoba - Boca Juniors	1:2 ✺
Copa Libertadores
28.04.26	Cruzeiro - Boca Juniors	1:0 ✺
Argentinian Liga Profesional
23.04.26	Defensa y Justicia - Boca Juniors	0:4 ✺
19.04.26	River Plate - Boca Juniors	0:1 ✺
Copa Libertadores
14.04.26	Boca Juniors - Barcelona Guayaquil	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.5 WLWWW

Latest Head to Head

Copa Libertadores
14.04.26	Boca Juniors - Barcelona Guayaquil	3:0
20.05.21	Boca Juniors - Barcelona Guayaquil	0:0
04.05.21	Barcelona Guayaquil - Boca Juniors	1:0
03.04.13	Boca Juniors - Barcelona Guayaquil	1:0
27.02.13	Barcelona Guayaquil - Boca Juniors	1:2

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