Match Info

Serie B - Round 28

Date: 4 March 2026, Wednesday

Location: Stadio San Nicola (Bari)

Referee: Caputi M. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Israel	5 SPORT Israel
Italy	DAZN Italia, LAB Channel
Switzerland	Blue Sport 2, Blue Sport 2
United-kingdom	DCTV
Usa	DCTV
World	Onefootball


	Bari		Empoli

	1	X	2
	2.82	3.25	2.4	Watch
	2.87	3.25	2.37
	2.92	3.15	2.38	Watch
	3.11	3.2	2.53
	3.14	3.25	2.29	Watch
	2.9	3	2.4
	2.9	3.29	2.48	Watch
	2.75	3.2	2.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.93 ↑ (2.71)	3.2 ↑ (3.1)	2.43 ↓ (2.57)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Bari
32.1%

Draw
29.3%

Empoli
38.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.1%

29.8%

36.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33.6%

30.2%

36.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Bari has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2%)

Empoli has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bari than the current prediction. (+1.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Empoli than the current prediction. (-2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
26.9%	46.2%	26.9%

Bari - Empoli Predictions

Users Predictions: 26 users predict this event. Bari will win (votes: 7 - 26.9%). Empoli will win (votes: 7 - 26.9%). It will Tie (votes: 12 - 46.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 27% – 65.4%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 4 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DNB - Empoli (1.66) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Empoli (votes: 1 - 20%). Tie (votes: 4 - 80%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
31. Cerofolini M. (G) 51. Cistana A. 26. Odenthal C. 13. Mantovani V. (C) 28. Piscopo K. 18. Maggiore G. 80. Artioli F. 93. Dorval M. 19. Esteves T. 17. Rao E. 11. Moncini G.	21. Fulignati A. (C) 2. Curto M. 20. Lovato M. 5. Obaretin N. 26. Candela A. 8. Magnino L. 14. Yepes G. 70. Saporiti E. 7. Elia S. 11. Shpendi S. 17. Fila D.
Substitutes
10. Bellomo N. 27. Braunoder M. 20. Cavuoti N. 90. Cuni M. 49. De Pieri G. 9. Gytkjaer C. 30. Mane M. 43. Nikolaou D. 8. Pagano R. 1. Pissardo M. (G) 25. Pucino R. 66. Traore D.	99. Bianchi F. 15. Ceesay J. 6. Degli Innocenti D. 24. Ebuehi T. 34. Guarino G. 32. Haas N. 25. Ignacchiti L. 10. Ilie R. 27. Moruzzi B. 19. Nasti M. 1. Perisan S. (G) 4. Romagnoli S.
Coaches
Longo M.	Dionisi A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
3', Yepes G. 🟨,
23', Lovato M. 🟥,
29', Saporiti E. ↓, Guarino G. ↑,
42', 1 - 0, Rao E. ⚽, Dorval M. (A),
45+1', 1 - 1, Shpendi S. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
59', Esteves T. 🟨,
62', Yepes G. ↓, Degli Innocenti D. ↑,
62', Fila D. ↓, Ilie R. ↑,
64', Esteves T. ↓, Bellomo N. ↑,
72', 2 - 1, Maggiore G. ⚽, Dorval M. (A),
77', Piscopo K. ↓, Mane M. ↑,
77', Rao E. ↓, De Pieri G. ↑,
80', Shpendi S. ↓, Nasti M. ↑,
80', Curto M. ↓, Ceesay J. ↑,
89', Maggiore G. ↓, Braunoder M. ↑,
89', Moncini G. ↓, Cuni M. ↑,
90+1', Cistana A. 🟨,

Preview

A mid-table team and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 19 in the zone Relegation and 11).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Bari won 1.

Recent performances by Bari have been up and down (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Empoli has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

There will not play in Bari: Darboe E. (Thigh Injury) Dickmann L. (Inactive) Sibilli G. (Suspended) Verreth M. (Injury)

There will not play in Empoli: Ghion A. (Inactive) Pellegri P. (Injury)

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Bari won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 5 matches, and goals 9:16. (average 1.1:2).

Including home matches between the teams, Bari won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 5:7. (average 1.7:2.3).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
13	Empoli	6	2	0	4	6:10	-4	6

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AS Bari
Italian Serie B
27.02.26	Sampdoria - Bari	0:2 ✺
21.02.26	Padova - Bari	1:1 ✺
15.02.26	Bari - Südtirol-Alto Adige	1:2 ✺
11.02.26	Bari - Spezia	0:0 ✺
07.02.26	Mantova - Bari	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.3 WTLTL
- FC Empoli
Italian Serie B
28.02.26	Empoli - Cesena	1:1 ✺
20.02.26	Frosinone - Empoli	2:2 ✺
15.02.26	Empoli - Reggiana	1:1 ✺
11.02.26	Empoli - Juve Stabia	1:2 ✺
07.02.26	Palermo - Empoli	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.6 TTTLL

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie B
29.11.25	Empoli - Bari	5:0
27.01.18	Bari - Empoli	0:4
03.09.17	Empoli - Bari	3:2
06.04.14	Bari - Empoli	3:0
01.11.13	Empoli - Bari	1:1
24.03.13	Empoli - Bari	0:1
30.10.12	Bari - Empoli	2:3

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