Match Info

Serie B - Round 23

Date: 7 February 2026, Saturday

Location: Stadio Danilo Martelli (Mantova)

Referee: Dionisi F. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Italy	DAZN Italia, LAB Channel
World	Onefootball


	Mantova		Bari

	1	X	2
	2.1	2.85	3.8	Watch
	2.1	3.2	3.4
	2.1	3.05	3.55	Watch
	2.23	3.07	3.98
	2.1	3.19	3.66	Watch
	2.1	3.1	3.3
	2.19	2.96	3.87	Watch
	2.12	3	3.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.13 (2.13)	3.05 ↑ (2.95)	3.67 ↓ (3.83)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mantova
43.9%

Draw
30.6%

Bari
25.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

43.9%

31.7%

24.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.1%

31.6%

24.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

The chances for Mantova have remained the same compared to the initial analysis.

Bari has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mantova than the current prediction. (+0.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Bari than the current prediction. (-1.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
63.6%	27.3%	9.1%

Mantova - Bari Predictions

Users Predictions: 11 users predict this event. Mantova will win (votes: 7 - 63.6%). Bari will win (votes: 1 - 9.1%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 27.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Mantova: 35.2% – 92%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Mantova (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
24. Bardi F. (G) 13. Meroni A. 29. Cella S. 27. Castellini A. 3. Dembele A. 21. Trimboli S. 80. Kouda R. 15. Goncalves T. 23. Marras T. 19. Ruocco F. 7. Mensah D.	31. Cerofolini M. (G) 51. Cistana A. 25. Pucino R. 26. Odenthal C. 24. Dickmann L. 29. Verreth M. 27. Braunoder M. 93. Dorval M. 49. De Pieri G. 17. Rao E. 11. Moncini G.
Substitutes
50. Benaissa-Yahia F. 30. Bragantini D. 77. Buso N. 5. Chrysopoulos K. 96. Maggioni T. 9. Mancuso L. 11. Muci N. 36. Paoletti F. 17. Radaelli N. 34. Vukovic A. (G) 10. Wieser D. 98. Zuccon F.	10. Bellomo N. 20. Cavuoti N. 90. Cuni M. 19. Esteves T. 9. Gytkjaer C. 18. Maggiore G. 30. Mane M. 13. Mantovani V. 8. Pagano R. 28. Piscopo K. 1. Pissardo M. (G) 37. Stabile G.
Coaches
Modesto F.	Longo M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
14', 1 - 0, Meroni A. ⚽,
16', 1 - 1, Odenthal C. ⚽, Verreth M. (A),
32', Odenthal C. 🟨,
33', Ruocco F. 🟨,
35', Cella S. 🟨,
45+1', Trimboli S. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', De Pieri G. ↓, Piscopo K. ↑,
57', Odenthal C. ↓, Mantovani V. ↑,
59', Mensah D. 🟨,
68', Moncini G. ↓, Cuni M. ↑,
68', Rao E. ↓, Esteves T. ↑,
68', Meroni A. ↓, Radaelli N. ↑,
68', Marras T. ↓, Bragantini D. ↑,
72', Cerofolini M. 🟨,
77', Mensah D. ↓, Mancuso L. ↑,
77', Ruocco F. ↓, Buso N. ↑,
86', Braunoder M. ↓, Maggiore G. ↑,
90+4', 2 - 1, Mancuso L. ⚽,

Preview

This time, only outsiders will meet in a game (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation and 19 in the zone Relegation).

Mantova has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Bari's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Mantova may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Mantova will hold a modest advantage in this match.

There will not play in Mantova: Bianay Balcot C. (Injury) Bonfanti N. (Inactive) Caprini M. (Inactive) Falletti C. (Inactive)

There will not play in Bari: Artioli F. (Inactive) Darboe E. (Thigh Injury) Maggiore G. (Inactive) Nikolaou D. (Muscle Injury)

There are questionable in Mantova: Muci N. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Bari: Rao E. (Injury)

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Mantova won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 0:4. (average 0:1.3).

Including home match between the teams, Mantova won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:1.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Mantova	5	3	2	0	10:5	5	11

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Mantova FC
Italian Serie B
31.01.26	Pescara - Mantova	2:2 ✺
24.01.26	Mantova - Venezia	2:5 ✺
17.01.26	Padova - Mantova	1:2 ✺
11.01.26	Mantova - Palermo	1:1 ✺
27.12.25	Carrarese - Mantova	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13 TLWTT
- AS Bari
Italian Serie B
30.01.26	Bari - Palermo	0:3 ✺
24.01.26	Cesena - Bari	1:2 ✺
17.01.26	Bari - Juve Stabia	0:1 ✺
10.01.26	Carrarese - Bari	1:0 ✺
27.12.25	Bari - Avellino	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.2 LWLLT

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie B
26.10.25	Bari - Mantova	1:0
22.02.25	Mantova - Bari	0:1
14.09.24	Bari - Mantova	2:0

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