Match Info

FRANCE: Ligue 2 - Round 21

Date: 31 January 2025, Friday

Location: Stade Armand Cesari (Bastia)

Referee: Batta F. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 6, TOD
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 9, Free


	Bastia		Metz

	1	X	2
	3	3.1	2.3	Watch
	3.2	3	2.3
	3.1	3.1	2.35
	3.31	3.11	2.41
	3.2	3.12	2.31	Watch
	3.1	3	2.38
	3.26	3.26	2.37	Watch
	3.1	3.1	2.35
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.16 ↑ (2.68)	3.1 ↑ (3.05)	2.35 ↓ (2.75)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Bastia
29.7%

Draw
30.3%

Metz
40%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35%

30.8%

34.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.8%

32.4%

32.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Bastia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Bastia's form might have worsened.

Metz has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Metz's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bastia than the current prediction. (+7.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Bastia, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Metz than the current prediction. (-7.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Metz, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
30%	40%	30%

Bastia - Metz Predictions

Users Predictions: 18 users predict this event. Bastia will win (votes: 5 - 27.8%). Metz will win (votes: 5 - 27.8%). It will Tie (votes: 8 - 44.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 21.4% – 67.4%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
30. Placide J. (G) 24. Meynadier T. 28. Akueson G. 4. Roncaglia A. 2. Inao Oulai C. 33. Ble M. 66. Janneh J. 14. Etoga L. 7. Vincent C. (C) 10. Boutrah A. 11. Cisse L.	29. Bodart A. (G) 39. Kouao K. 2. Colin M. 15. Lo A. 3. Udol M. (C) 7. Hein G. 21. Stambouli B. 20. Deminguet J. 10. Diallo P. A. 18. Gueye I. 14. Sabaly C.
Substitutes
21. Boumaaoui M. A. 23. Fabri J. (G) 3. Guevara J. 5. Maggiotti J. 25. Rodrigues C. 42. Tavares D. 27. Tramoni L.	99. Asoro J. 19. Bokele Mputu M. 6. Nduquidi J. 16. Oukidja A. (G) 9. Sane I. 12. Toure A. 22. Van Den Kerkhof K.
Coaches
Tavenot B.	Le Mignan S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
11', 1 - 0, Ble M. ⚽,
36', Lo A. ↓, Nduquidi J. ↑,
39', Etoga L. 🟨,
43', Vincent C. 🟨,
45+1', Gueye I. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
57', Inao Oulai C. 🟨,
58', Meynadier T. 🟨,
65', Etoga L. 🟨,
66', Diallo P. A. ↓, Bokele Mputu M. ↑,
66', Kouao K. ↓, Van Den Kerkhof K. ↑,
70', Ble M. ↓, Tavares D. ↑,
83', Stambouli B. ↓, Asoro J. ↑,
83', Gueye I. ↓, Sane I. ↑,
89', Placide J. 🟨,
90+4', Inao Oulai C. ↓, Maggiotti J. ↑,
90+4', Vincent C. ↓, Guevara J. ↑,
90+5', 1 - 1, Hein G. (Pen),

Preview

Watch a game between a team from the middle of a tournament table and a team which is a leader now (ranked 10 and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Ligue 1).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Bastia won 2.

Bastia is in unsatisfactory shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches Metz is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

The chances to win of two teams are almost the same in this match.

There will not play in Bastia: Guevara J. (Injury) Tomi F. (Injury)

Last 9 head-to-head matches Bastia won 5 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 15:8 (average 1.7:0.9).

Including matches at home between the teams Bastia won 5 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 11:0 (average 2.2:0).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SC Bastia
French Ligue 2
24.01.25	Bastia - Pau	1:1 ✺
17.01.25	Amiens - Bastia	1:0 ✺
Coupe De France
14.01.25	Bastia - Nice	0:1 ✺
French Ligue 2
11.01.25	Bastia - Ajaccio	4:0 ✺
03.01.25	Grenoble - Bastia	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.6 TLLWL
- FC Metz
French Ligue 2
24.01.25	Metz - Grenoble	3:0 ✺
18.01.25	Metz - Paris FC	3:1 ✺
11.01.25	Lorient - Metz	0:0 ✺
04.01.25	Metz - Pau	0:0 ✺
Coupe De France
20.12.24	Troyes - Metz	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9 WWTTL

Latest Head to Head

French Ligue 2
19.08.24	Metz - Bastia	1:1
02.06.23	Metz - Bastia	3:2
17.09.22	Bastia - Metz	1:0
French Ligue 1
17.03.17	Metz - Bastia	1:0
10.12.16	Bastia - Metz	2:0
07.02.15	Bastia - Metz	2:0
20.09.14	Metz - Bastia	3:1

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