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Current Win Probability
Bayer Leverkusen 37%
Draw 28.7%
Atlético Madrid 34.3%
Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)
30.9%
27.8%
41.3%
Our Initial ML Estimation
31.2%
28.1%
40.9%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Bayer Leverkusen has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.1%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Bayer Leverkusen's performance.
Atlético Madrid has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7%)
Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Atlético Madrid might be facing challenges that affect their performance.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Bayer Leverkusen than the current prediction. (-5.8%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Bayer Leverkusen that the model has picked up on.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Atlético Madrid than the current prediction. (+6.6%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Atlético Madrid could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
Who will win by Users?
1
X
2
18.6%
22.9%
58.6%
Bayer Leverkusen - Atlético Madrid Predictions
Users Predictions:
140 users predict this event. Bayer will win (votes: 26 - 18.6%). Atlético will win (votes: 82 - 58.6%). It will Tie (votes: 32 - 22.9%). Confidence interval (95%) for Atlético: 50.4% – 66.8%.The data is statistically significant.
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1
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Preview
Bayer has currently - 0, has a small chance of 1st (12%), has a chance of 2nd (19%), has a chance of 3rd (28%), has a chance of round of 16 (31%), has a small chance of qtrs (11%), has a very small chance of semis (4%), has a very small chance of final (1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).
Atlético has currently - 3, has a chance of 1st (50%), has a chance of 2nd (26%), has a small chance of 3rd (15%), has a good chance of round of 16 (76%), has a chance of qtrs (35%), has a small chance of semis (14%), has a very small chance of final (5%), has a very small chance of win league (2%).
This event has big quality77, importance66, big match rating72. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)
Last 5 head-to-head matches Bayer won 1.
Bayer is in awful shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).
Atlético is in a first-class shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).
In this match the chances to achieve triumph bor both teams are almost equal.
There will not play in Bayer: Adli A.
(Shoulder Injury)
Bellarabi K.
(Knee Injury)
Lunev A.
(Muscle Injury)
Palacios E.
(Muscle Injury)
Wirtz F.
(Knee Injury)
There will not play in Atlético: Gimenez J. M.
(Back Injury)
Lemar T.
(Muscle Injury)
Reguilon S.
(Injury)
Savic S.
(Thigh Injury)
There are questionable in Atlético: Oblak J.
(Thigh Injury)
Last 6 head-to-head matches Bayer won 2 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 5-8.
Including matches at home between the teams Bayer won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 5-5.
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