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Benfica - Bayer Leverkusen: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide

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Match Info

  • Champions League - League phase - Round 4
  • Date: 5 November 2025, Wednesday
  • Location: Estádio da Luz (Lisbon)
  • Referee: Sozza S. (Ita)
  • Where to Watch on TV:
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    Benfica Bayer Leverkusen
    Benfica Bayer Leverkusen
    1 X 2
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    Avarage Now
    (Initially)    		 1.98 ↓
    (2.09)    		 3.78 ↑
    (3.64)    		 3.8 ↑
    (3.35)

    • The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

    • The best margin for this event is 1.5%, offered by

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    Current Win Probability

    Benfica
    48.9%    		Draw
    25.6%    		Bayer Leverkusen
    25.5%

    Initial Probability

    (when we started the analysis)
    45.5% 26.1% 28.4%

    Our Initial ML Estimation

    48.6% 27.9% 26.6%


    Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Benfica has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.4%)
  • Bayer Leverkusen has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.9%)
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Benfica than the current prediction. (-0.3%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bayer Leverkusen than the current prediction. (+1.1%)

    • Who will win by Users?

    1
    X
    2
    86.4% 6.8% 6.8%

    Benfica - Bayer Leverkusen Predictions

  • Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:
    • O/U 3 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • DC - Bayer (1.88) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
  • Users Predictions: Benfica will win (75 of 87 users predict this - 86.21%).
    Confidence interval (95%): 78.96% – 93.46%.
  • Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Benfica will win (39 of 45 users predict this - 86.67%) 🥈 Silver Tip.
  • Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 46 Selected Experts predict this event. Benfica (votes: 39 - 84.8%). Bayer (votes: 2 - 4.3%). Tie (votes: 5 - 10.9%).
  • Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1
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    Lineups

    Starting Lineups
      1. UkraineTrubin A. (G)
      8. NorwayAursnes F.
    44. PortugalAraujo T.
    30. ArgentinaOtamendi N. (C)
    26. SwedenDahl S.
    20. ColombiaRios R.
      5. ArgentinaBarrenechea E.
    11. BelgiumLukebakio D.
    18. LuxembourgBarreiro L.
    10. UkraineSudakov G.
    14. GreecePavlidis V.
    		  1. NetherlandsFlekken M. (G)
      4. EnglandQuansah J.
      5. FranceBade L.
    12. BurkinaTapsoba E.
    13. BrazilArthur
    24. SpainGarcia A.
    30. AlgeriaMaza I.
    20. SpainGrimaldo A. (C)
      9. ArgentinaEcheverri C.
    19. NetherlandsPoku E.
    35. CameroonKofane C. M.
    Substitutes
    39. PortugalAraujo H.
    17. BosniaDedic A.
      9. CroatiaIvanovic F.
      3. SpainObrador R.
    25. ArgentinaPrestianni G.
    86. PortugalPrioste D.
    84. PortugalRego J.
    21. NorwaySchjelderup A.
      4. PortugalSilva A.
    24. PortugalSoares S. (G)
    68. PortugalVeloso J.
    66. USAWynder J.
    		44. FranceBelocian J.
    17. MoroccoBen Seghir E.
    28. GermanyBlaswich J. (G)
    42. GermanyCulbreath M.
    36. GermanyLomb N. (G)
    27. GermanyMensah J.
    46. GermanyPohl F.
    14. CzechSchick P.
    10. USATillman M.
    Coaches
         PortugalMourinho J.
    		     DenmarkHjulmand K.

    Key Events of the Match

    • 1st Half (0 - 0)
    • 41', Maza I. 🟨,
    • 2nd Half (0 - 1)
    • 55', Tapsoba E. 🟨,
    • 57', Kofane C. M. ↓, Schick P. ↑,
    • 57', Echeverri C. ↓, Tillman M. ↑,
    • 62', Lukebakio D. 🟨,
    • 65', 0 - 1, Schick P. ⚽,
    • 69', Dahl S. ↓, Schjelderup A. ↑,
    • 69', Sudakov G. ↓, Prestianni G. ↑,
    • 69', Barreiro L. ↓, Dedic A. ↑,
    • 78', Otamendi N. 🟨,
    • 79', Tillman M. 🟨,
    • 88', Poku E. ↓, Ben Seghir E. ↑,
    • 90+1', Rios R. 🟨,

    Preview

  • Benfica is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 4 wins).
  • In recent matches, Bayer has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).
  • Benfica could have a small edge in this match.
  • There will not play in Benfica: Bah A. (Knee Injury) Bruma (Achilles Tendon Injury) Felix N. (Knee Injury) Manu (Knee Injury) Santos L. (Injury)
  • There will not play in Bayer: Andrich R. (Red Card) Fernandez E. (Knee Injury) Hofmann J. (Inactive) Lucas (Muscle Injury) Palacios E. (Groin Injury) Sarco A. (Inactive) Tape A. (Hamstring Injury) Tella N. (Knee Injury) Terrier M. (Inactive)
  • There are questionable in Bayer: Tillman M. (Hamstring Injury)
  • In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Benfica won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 4:4. (average 1:1).
  • Including home matches between the teams, Benfica won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:1. (average 1:0.5).

    • Form
    ✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;
    - SL Benfica
    Liga Portugal
    01.11.25 Vitoria Guimarães - Benfica 0:3 ✺
    Portuguese League Cup
    29.10.25 Benfica - Tondela 3:0 ✺
    Liga Portugal
    25.10.25 Benfica - Arouca 5:0 ✺
    UEFA Champions League
    21.10.25 Newcastle United - Benfica 3:0 ✺
    Taça de Portugal
    17.10.25 Chaves - Benfica 0:2 ✺
    Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.9
    WWWLW
    - Bayer Leverkusen
    German Bundesliga
    01.11.25 Bayern Munich - Bayer Leverkusen 3:0 ✺
    German DFB Pokal
    29.10.25 Paderborn - Bayer Leverkusen 2:4 ET ✺
    German Bundesliga
    26.10.25 Bayer Leverkusen - Freiburg 2:0 ✺
    UEFA Champions League
    21.10.25 Bayer Leverkusen - Paris Saint-Germain 2:7 ✺
    German Bundesliga
    18.10.25 Mainz - Bayer Leverkusen 3:4 ✺
    Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.8
    LWWLW
    Latest Head to Head
    UEFA Champions League
    09.12.14 Benfica - Bayer Leverkusen 0:0
    01.10.14 Bayer Leverkusen - Benfica 3:1
    UEFA Europa League
    21.02.13 Benfica - Bayer Leverkusen 2:1
    14.02.13 Bayer Leverkusen - Benfica 0:1
    Upcoming Matches
    ✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;
    - SL Benfica
    UEFA Europa League
    15.10.26 Benfica - Celtic ✺
    Liga Portugal
    11.10.26 Benfica - Vitoria Guimarães ✺
    - Bayer Leverkusen
    UEFA Europa League
    15.10.26 Lech Poznań - Bayer Leverkusen ✺
    German Bundesliga
    10.10.26 Mainz - Bayer Leverkusen ✺

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