Match Info

Bundesliga - Round 6

Date: 18 October 2026, Sunday

Location: BayArena (Leverkusen)

Referee: Badstubner F. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


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International	OneFootball TV


	Bayer Leverkusen		Freiburg

	1	X	2
	1.6	4.5	5	Watch
	1.65	4.33	4.60
	1.58	4.3	5.1
	1.64	4.64	5
	1.67	4.42	4.82	Watch
	1.59	4.5	4.9
	1.65	4.67	5.17	Watch
	1.61	4.5	4.9
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.62 ↓ (1.68)	4.48 ↑ (4.27)	4.94 ↑ (4.49)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 1.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Bayer Leverkusen
59.1%

Draw
21.4%

Freiburg
19.5%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

56.6%

22.3%

21.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

59.7%

21.1%

20.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Bayer Leverkusen has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.5%)

Freiburg has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bayer Leverkusen than the current prediction. (+0.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Freiburg than the current prediction. (+0.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
80%	20%	0%

Bayer Leverkusen - Freiburg Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 3 - over (1.70) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (1.50) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +1 - Freiburg (1.86) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

New Consensus by Tipsters:

1X2 - Bayer Leverkusen (1.65) (votes: 89%) ⭐ Best Value.

Users Predictions: Bayer Leverkusen will win (16 of 20 users predict this - 80%).
Confidence interval (95%): 62.47% – 97.53%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Bayer Leverkusen will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Bayer (votes: 3 - 75%). Freiburg (votes: 1 - 25%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Preview

A high-stakes showdown between two teams from the upper tier of the standings (ranked 4th in the Promotion - Champions League League phase and 3rd in the Promotion - Champions League League phase).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Bayer won 3.

Both teams have recently enjoyed an outstanding winning streak.

Freiburg may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Freiburg has enjoyed a sequence of home fixtures.

Bookmakers give the edge to Bayer for this game.

Confirmed absences for Bayer: Ben Seghir E. (Muscle Injury) Doue G. (Calf Injury) Eichhorn K. (Illness) Kofane C. (Muscle Injury) Terrier M. (Muscle Injury).

Confirmed absences for Freiburg: Suzuki Y. (Red Card).

Doubtful / questionable for Bayer: Culbreath M. (Foot Injury).

Doubtful / questionable for Freiburg: Yilmaz B. (Lacking Match Fitness).

Our forecast points to a victory for Bayer in today's match, at odds of 1.69.

In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Bayer has recorded 9 wins, 7 draws, and 4 losses, with a goal aggregate of 37:23 (averaging 1.9:1.2 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Bayer against this opponent, the record stands at 6 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses, with 21:9 goals (averaging 2.1:0.9 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Freiburg	5	4	1	0	14:4	10	13
4	Bayer Leverkusen	5	3	1	1	14:8	6	10

Outrights of German Bundesliga for now

Bayer Leverkusen: 3.93% Freiburg: 1%

Last Results with these Odds

Bayer Leverkusen - the odds 1.68 are the expected chance of winning is 56.57%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Bayer Leverkusen
UEFA Europa League
15.10.26	Lech Poznań - Bayer Leverkusen	0:4 ✺
German Bundesliga
10.10.26	Mainz - Bayer Leverkusen	3:4 ✺
20.09.26	Bayer Leverkusen - RB Leipzig	2:0 ✺
UEFA Europa League
16.09.26	Bayer Leverkusen - Celje	2:0 ✺
German Bundesliga
12.09.26	Augsburg - Bayer Leverkusen	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.1 WWWWT
- SC Freiburg
UEFA Europa Conference League
15.10.26	Freiburg - Jablonec	3:2 ✺
German Bundesliga
11.10.26	Freiburg - Schalke 04	2:1 ✺
Club Friendly
03.10.26	Freiburg - Luzern	4:2
German Bundesliga
19.09.26	Eintracht Frankfurt - Freiburg	2:2 ✺
12.09.26	Freiburg - Borussia Mönchengladbach	5:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8 WWWTW

Latest Head to Head

German Bundesliga
07.03.26	Freiburg - Bayer Leverkusen	3:3
26.10.25	Bayer Leverkusen - Freiburg	2:0
04.05.25	Freiburg - Bayer Leverkusen	2:2
21.12.24	Bayer Leverkusen - Freiburg	5:1
17.03.24	Freiburg - Bayer Leverkusen	2:3
29.10.23	Bayer Leverkusen - Freiburg	2:1
26.02.23	Freiburg - Bayer Leverkusen	1:1

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