What is the expert prediction for Mainz vs Hamburger SV?

Our statistical model provides live predictions including win probabilities and estimated scores for Mainz vs Hamburger SV. Follow the link for detailed analytics.

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Mainz vs Hamburger SV Predictions, H2H Stats & TV Channels (Friday, February 20, 2026)

Match Info

Bundesliga - Round 23

Date: 20 February 2026, Friday

Location: Mewa Arena (Mainz)

Referee: Braun R. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	Azam Sports 2, CANAL+ Sport 1, StarTimes App, Startimes World Football, ZAP
Albania	Tring Sport 2
Angola	Z Sports 2
Argentina	Disney+, ESPN 3, ESPN
Armenia	Setanta Sports 1
Australia	beIN Connect
Austria	Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Austria Top Event, Sky Sport Bundesliga 1
Azerbaijan	Setanta Sports 1
Belgium	Play Sports 1
Brazil	SporTV
Bulgaria	Diema Sport 3, Play Diema Xtra
Canada	DAZN Canada, OneSoccer
Chile	Disney+
China	Migu, QQ Sports
Colombia	Disney+
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 3, Oneplay
Denmark	TV3 MAX, Viaplay
Ecuador	ESPN 5
Europe	Setanta Sports 1 Baltic
Finland	Veikkaus TV, Viaplay 2 Urheilu, Viaplay
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2, Free
Georgia	Setanta Sports 1
Germany	Sky Go Germany, Sky Sport Bundesliga 1, Sky Sport Bundesliga UHD, Sky Sport Top Event, WOW
Greece	Nova Sports 3
Hong-kong	beIN Sports 2, beIN SPORTS MAX, M Plus Live, Now Player
Hungary	Arena 4
Iceland	Viaplay
India	Sony LIV, Vision+
Indonesia	K-Vision, MNC Soccer Channel
Israel	Sport 1
Japan	DAZN Japan
Kyrgyzstan	Setanta Sports 1
Laos	beIN Connect
Malaysia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3, beIN SPORTS MAX, Sooka
Malta	GO TV, TSN Malta 5
Mexico	Izzi TV, Sky Sport
Moldova	Setanta Sports 1
Mongolia	Premier Sports 5
Netherlands	Viaplay
New-zealand	beIN Connect
North-central-america	RUSH Sports 2 Caribbean, Sky Sports Norte
Norway	TV2 Play, Viaplay, V Sport 1
Pakistan	Tapmad
Peru	Disney+
Philippines	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3, beIN SPORTS MAX
Poland	Eleven Sports 2, Polsat Sport Premium 1
Portugal	DAZN 2, DAZN / App
Romania	Digi Online, Digi Sport 3, Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 5
Russia	Okko Sport
Saudi-arabia	MBC Shahid
Serbia	Arena Premium 5
Singapore	beIN Sports 3, beIN SPORTS MAX
Slovakia	Nova Sport 3, Voyo
Slovenia	Sport TV1
South-america	ESPN 5 South
South-korea	Coupang Play
Spain	DAZN Espana
Sweden	Viaplay
Switzerland	Sky Sport Bundesliga 1, Sky Sport Top Event
Tajikistan	Setanta Sports 1
Thailand	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3, beIN SPORTS MAX
Turkey	S Sport+, Tivibu Spor 1
Turkmenistan	Setanta Sports 1
Ukraine	Kyivstar TV, Setanta Sports
United-kingdom	BBC iPlayer, BBC Sport
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	ESPN App, ESPN+
Uzbekistan	Setanta Sports 1
Venezuela	Disney+, ESPN 5
Vietnam	TV 360
World	Onefootball


	Mainz		Hamburger SV

	1	X	2
	2.05	3.4	3.7	Watch
	2.15	3.4	3.4
	2.08	3.45	3.55	Watch
	2.12	3.5	3.73
	2.09	3.46	3.56	Watch
	2.05	3.2	3.4
	2.16	3.51	3.73	Watch
	2.1	3.25	3.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.1 ↑ (2.04)	3.4 ↑ (3.26)	3.6 ↓ (3.94)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 1.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mainz
45.4%

Draw
28.1%

Hamburger SV
26.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46.6%

29.2%

24.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48%

28.3%

23.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mainz has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.2%)

Hamburger SV has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mainz than the current prediction. (+2.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Hamburger SV than the current prediction. (-3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
62.5%	30.4%	7.1%

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Predictions

Users Predictions: 56 users predict this event. Mainz will win (votes: 35 - 62.5%). Hamburg will win (votes: 4 - 7.1%). It will Tie (votes: 17 - 30.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Mainz: 49.8% – 75.2%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 16 Selected Experts predict this event. Mainz (votes: 11 - 68.8%). Tie (votes: 5 - 31.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 1.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 4 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

DC - Mainz (1.31) (votes: 3 - 60%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 5 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

AH 0 - Hamburg (2.56) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DNB - Mainz (1.46) (votes: 2 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

O/U 1.5, 2nd Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 24 Selected Experts predict this event. Mainz (votes: 16 - 66.7%). Hamburg (votes: 3 - 12.5%). Tie (votes: 5 - 20.8%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
33. Batz D. (G) 4. Posch S. 48. Potulski K. 31. Kohr D. 21. da Costa D. 6. Sano K. 2. Mwene P. 10. Amiri N. (C) 7. Lee Jae-Sung 26. Silas 20. Tietz P.	1. Heuer Fernandes D. (G) 24. Capaldo N. (C) 17. Omari W. 25. Torunarigha J. 18. Jatta B. 20. Vieira F. 21. Remberg N. 28. Muheim M. 11. Konigsdorffer R. 9. Glatzel R. 27. Otele P.
Substitutes
23. Becker S. 14. Boving W. 42. Gleiber D. 5. Leitsch M. 15. Maloney L. 8. Nebel P. 1. Riess L. (G) 11. Sieb A. 22. Veratschnig N.	7. Dompe J. 19. Downs D. 8. Elfadli D. 16. Gocholeishvili G. 2. Mikelbrencis W. 14. Philippe R. 15. Poulsen Y. 49. Stange O. 12. Tangvik S. (G)
Coaches
Fischer U.	Polzin M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
12', Silas 🟨,
34', Muheim M. 🟨,
42', 1 - 0, Amiri N. ⚽, da Costa D. (A),
45+1', Kohr D. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Silas ↓, Becker S. ↑,
58', Remberg N. 🟨,
58', Kohr D. ↓, Veratschnig N. ↑,
64', 1 - 1, Vieira F. ⚽,
65', Glatzel R. ↓, Poulsen Y. ↑,
65', Jatta B. ↓, Mikelbrencis W. ↑,
76', Otele P. ↓, Philippe R. ↑,
87', Lee Jae-Sung ↓, Nebel P. ↑,
87', Konigsdorffer R. ↓, Elfadli D. ↑,
88', Muheim M. ↓, Gocholeishvili G. ↑,
90', Potulski K. 🟨,

Preview

A mid-table team and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 14 and 9).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Mainz won 2.

Mainz has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Hamburg is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Mainz could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 14 head-to-head matches, Mainz won 5 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 18:19. (average 1.3:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Mainz won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 11:9. (average 1.8:1.5).

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Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Mainz 05
German Bundesliga
13.02.26	Borussia Dortmund - Mainz	4:0 ✺
07.02.26	Mainz - Augsburg	2:0 ✺
31.01.26	RB Leipzig - Mainz	1:2 ✺
24.01.26	Mainz - Wolfsburg	3:1 ✺
17.01.26	Köln - Mainz	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.3 LWWWL
- Hamburger SV
German Bundesliga
14.02.26	Hamburger SV - Union Berlin	3:2 ✺
07.02.26	Heidenheim - Hamburger SV	0:2 ✺
31.01.26	Hamburger SV - Bayern Munich	2:2 ✺
23.01.26	St. Pauli - Hamburger SV	0:0 ✺
17.01.26	Hamburger SV - Borussia Mönchengladbach	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18.3 WWTTT

Latest Head to Head

German Bundesliga
05.10.25	Hamburger SV - Mainz	4:0
03.03.18	Hamburger SV - Mainz	0:0
14.10.17	Mainz - Hamburger SV	3:2
07.05.17	Hamburger SV - Mainz	0:0
17.12.16	Mainz - Hamburger SV	3:1
30.04.16	Mainz - Hamburger SV	0:0
05.12.15	Hamburger SV - Mainz	1:3

Mainz - Hamburger SV: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide