Match Info

Bundesliga - Round 23

Date: 21 February 2026, Saturday

Location: Stadion An der Alten Försterei (Berlin)

Referee: Osmers H. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	StarTimes App, Startimes Sports Arena
Albania	Tring Sport 3
Argentina	Disney+
Australia	beIN Connect
Austria	Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Bundesliga 2
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Canada	DAZN Canada, OneSoccer
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China	Migu, QQ Sports
Colombia	Disney+
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 6, Oneplay
Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	Veikkaus TV, Viaplay
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 5, Free
Germany	DAZN Deutsch, Sky Go Germany, Sky Sport Bundesliga 2, WOW
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Portugal	DAZN / App
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Singapore	beIN SPORTS MAX
Slovakia	Nova Sport 6, Sport TV2, Voyo
South-korea	Coupang Play
Spain	DAZN Espana
Sweden	Viaplay
Switzerland	Sky Sport Bundesliga 2
Thailand	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX, True ID, True Premier Football 4
Turkey	S Sport+, Tivibu Spor 3
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Usa	ESPN App, ESPN+
Venezuela	Disney+
Vietnam	TV 360
World	Onefootball


	Union Berlin		Bayer Leverkusen

	1	X	2
	2.9	3.4	2.4	Watch
	2.88	3.35	2.48	Watch
	3.06	3.5	2.41
	2.81	3.47	2.59	Watch
	2.75	3.2	2.45
	2.92	3.5	2.58	Watch
	3	3.33	2.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.9 ↑ (2.83)	3.39 ↓ (3.44)	2.47 ↑ (2.45)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 1.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Union Berlin
33%

Draw
28.2%

Bayer Leverkusen
38.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

33.6%

27.6%

38.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

34.2%

28.1%

38.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Union Berlin has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.6%)

Bayer Leverkusen has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Union Berlin than the current prediction. (+1.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Bayer Leverkusen than the current prediction. (-0.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
5.6%	11.1%	83.3%

Union Berlin - Bayer Leverkusen Predictions

Users Predictions: 36 users predict this event. Union Berlin will win (votes: 2 - 5.6%). Bayer will win (votes: 30 - 83.3%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 11.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Bayer: 71.1% – 95.5%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Bayer (1.66) (votes: 2 - 66.7%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .

AH +0.25 - Union Berlin (1.79) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DNB - Bayer (1.66) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Bayer Leverkusen will win (5 of 6 users predict this - 83.33%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 11 Selected Experts predict this event. Union Berlin (votes: 2 - 18.2%). Bayer (votes: 8 - 72.7%). Tie (votes: 1 - 9.1%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Ronnow F. (G) 5. Doekhi D. 14. Querfeld L. 34. Nsoki S. 19. Haberer J. 8. Khedira R. (C) 6. Kemlein A. 39. Kohn D. 11. Jeong Woo-Yeong 13. Schafer A. 23. Ilic A.	28. Blaswich J. (G) 5. Bade L. 8. Andrich R. (C) 12. Tapsoba E. 13. Arthur 6. Fernandez E. 24. Garcia A. 20. Grimaldo A. 30. Maza I. 10. Tillman M. 35. Kofane C.
Substitutes
10. Ansah I. 9. Burcu L. 7. Burke O. 33. Kral A. 3. Markgraf A. 17. Preu D. 31. Raab M. (G) 21. Skarke T. 28. Trimmel C.	7. Hofmann J. 21. Lucas 15. Oermann T. 18. Omlin J. (G) 25. Palacios E. 19. Poku E. 4. Quansah J. 14. Schick P. 11. Terrier M.
Coaches
Baumgart S.	Hjulmand K.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
3', Nsoki S. 🟨,
10', Haberer J. 🟨,
11', Haberer J. ↓, Trimmel C. ↑,
28', 1 - 0, Khedira R. ⚽, Kemlein A. (A),
44', Ilic A. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
60', Querfeld L. 🟨,
61', Kofane C. ↓, Schick P. ↑,
61', Arthur ↓, Lucas ↑,
62', Fernandez E. ↓, Poku E. ↑,
68', Bade L. ↓, Hofmann J. ↑,
70', Jeong Woo-Yeong ↓, Kral A. ↑,
81', Tillman M. ↓, Terrier M. ↑,
84', Hofmann J. 🟨,
85', Ilic A. ↓, Ansah I. ↑,
85', Schafer A. ↓, Skarke T. ↑,
88', Andrich R. 🟨,
90+4', Ronnow F. 🟨,

Preview

Watch a clash between a mid-table side and a current leader (ranked 10 and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Union Berlin won 0.

Union Berlin has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Bayer is on a winning streak and currently in very good shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Bayer may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

There will not play in Union Berlin: Juranovic J. (Injury) Leite D. (Muscle Injury) Rothe T. (Injury) Skov R. (Muscle Injury)

There will not play in Bayer: Ben Seghir E. (Ankle Injury) Flekken M. (Injury) Tella N. (Injury)

In the last 15 head-to-head matches, Union Berlin won 1 match, drew 5 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 10:30. (average 0.7:2).

Including home matches between the teams, Union Berlin won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 5:7. (average 0.8:1.2).

Outrights of German Bundesliga for now

Bayer Leverkusen: 3.21% Union Berlin: 0.17%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
6	Bayer Leverkusen	4	2	1	1	10:5	5	7
17	Union Berlin	4	0	1	3	4:17	-13	1

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Union Berlin
German Bundesliga
14.02.26	Hamburger SV - Union Berlin	3:2 ✺
06.02.26	Union Berlin - Eintracht Frankfurt	1:1 ✺
31.01.26	Hoffenheim - Union Berlin	3:1 ✺
24.01.26	Union Berlin - Borussia Dortmund	0:3 ✺
18.01.26	Stuttgart - Union Berlin	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6 LTLLT
- Bayer Leverkusen
UEFA Champions League
18.02.26	Olympiacos Piraeus - Bayer Leverkusen	0:2 ✺
German Bundesliga
14.02.26	Bayer Leverkusen - St. Pauli	4:0 ✺
07.02.26	Borussia Mönchengladbach - Bayer Leverkusen	1:1 ✺
German DFB Pokal
03.02.26	Bayer Leverkusen - St. Pauli	3:0 ✺
German Bundesliga
31.01.26	Eintracht Frankfurt - Bayer Leverkusen	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.2 WWTWW

Latest Head to Head

German Bundesliga
04.10.25	Bayer Leverkusen - Union Berlin	2:0
12.04.25	Bayer Leverkusen - Union Berlin	0:0
30.11.24	Union Berlin - Bayer Leverkusen	1:2
06.04.24	Union Berlin - Bayer Leverkusen	0:1
12.11.23	Bayer Leverkusen - Union Berlin	4:0
29.04.23	Union Berlin - Bayer Leverkusen	0:0
06.11.22	Bayer Leverkusen - Union Berlin	5:0

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