Match Info

Bundesliga - Round 25

Date: 7 March 2026, Saturday

Location: Volkswagen Arena (Wolfsburg)

Referee: Exner F. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	Sporty TV App
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World	Onefootball


	Wolfsburg		Hamburger SV

	1	X	2
	2.55	3.3	2.75	Watch
	2.68	3.35	2.68	Watch
	2.67	3.5	2.81
	2.61	3.41	2.71	Watch
	2.5	3.25	2.63
	2.62	3.39	2.83	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.61 ↑ (2.35)	3.37 ↓ (3.68)	2.74 ↓ (2.82)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 1.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Wolfsburg
36.7%

Draw
28.4%

Hamburger SV
34.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.5%

25.8%

33.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.7%

27.9%

31.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Wolfsburg has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.8%)

Hamburger SV has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Wolfsburg than the current prediction. (+7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Wolfsburg, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Hamburger SV than the current prediction. (-3.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
43.2%	40.5%	16.2%

Wolfsburg - Hamburger SV Predictions

Users Predictions: 37 users predict this event. Wolfsburg will win (votes: 16 - 43.2%). Hamburg will win (votes: 6 - 16.2%). It will Tie (votes: 15 - 40.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Wolfsburg: 27.2% – 59.2%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 8 Selected Experts predict this event. Wolfsburg (votes: 2 - 25%). Hamburg (votes: 1 - 12.5%). Tie (votes: 5 - 62.5%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.25 - Wolfsburg (2.12) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 10 Selected Experts predict this event. Wolfsburg (votes: 4 - 40%). Hamburg (votes: 1 - 10%). Tie (votes: 5 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Grabara K. (G) 18. Adjetey J. 15. Jenz M. 4. Koulierakis K. 41. Burger J. 5. Vini Souza 31. Gerhardt Y. (C) 6. Belocian J. 24. Eriksen C. 19. Lindstrom J. 17. Pejcinovic D.	1. Heuer Fernandes D. (G) 8. Elfadli D. 44. Vuskovic L. 25. Torunarigha J. 2. Mikelbrencis W. 6. Lokonga A. S. 21. Remberg N. 28. Muheim M. (C) 27. Otele P. 7. Dompe J. 11. Konigsdorffer R.
Substitutes
9. Amoura M. 27. Arnold M. 11. Daghim A. 37. Hensel P. 26. Kumbedi S. 10. Majer L. 29. Muller M. (G) 7. Shiogai K. 3. Vavro D.	45. Balde F. 19. Downs D. 9. Glatzel R. 16. Gocholeishvili G. 17. Omari W. 15. Poulsen Y. 49. Stange O. 12. Tangvik S. (G) 20. Vieira F.
Coaches
Bauer D.	Polzin M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
20', Elfadli D. 🟨,
22', 1 - 0, Eriksen C. (Penalty Awarded),
32', Jenz M. 🟨,
33', 1 - 1, Vuskovic L. (Penalty Awarded),
45', Lindstrom J. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Elfadli D. ↓, Omari W. ↑,
57', Adjetey J. 🟨,
58', 1 - 2, Dompe J. (Penalty Awarded),
60', Lindstrom J. ↓, Amoura M. ↑,
60', Gerhardt Y. ↓, Majer L. ↑,
60', Burger J. ↓, Daghim A. ↑,
67', Dompe J. ↓, Poulsen Y. ↑,
67', Otele P. ↓, Vieira F. ↑,
69', Pejcinovic D. ↓, Shiogai K. ↑,
77', Konigsdorffer R. ↓, Downs D. ↑,
77', Jenz M. ↓, Arnold M. ↑,
86', Mikelbrencis W. ↓, Gocholeishvili G. ↑,
90+6', Vieira F. 🟨,

Preview

The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 17 in the zone Relegation ~ 2. Bundesliga and 11).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Wolfsburg won 2.

Wolfsburg is on a losing streak (last 5 games: 0 wins).

In recent matches, Hamburg has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Hamburg may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 17 head-to-head matches, Wolfsburg won 9 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 24:13. (average 1.4:0.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Wolfsburg won 4 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 14:9. (average 1.6:1).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
16	Hamburger SV	4	1	0	3	2:13	-11	3

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- VfL Wolfsburg
German Bundesliga
01.03.26	Stuttgart - Wolfsburg	4:0 ✺
21.02.26	Wolfsburg - Augsburg	2:3 ✺
15.02.26	RB Leipzig - Wolfsburg	2:2 ✺
07.02.26	Wolfsburg - Borussia Dortmund	1:2 ✺
30.01.26	Köln - Wolfsburg	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.8 LLTLL
- Hamburger SV
German Bundesliga
04.03.26	Hamburger SV - Bayer Leverkusen	0:1 ✺
01.03.26	Hamburger SV - RB Leipzig	1:2 ✺
20.02.26	Mainz - Hamburger SV	1:1 ✺
14.02.26	Hamburger SV - Union Berlin	3:2 ✺
07.02.26	Heidenheim - Hamburger SV	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.4 LLTWW

Latest Head to Head

German Bundesliga
25.10.25	Hamburger SV - Wolfsburg	0:1
Club Friendly
06.10.21	Wolfsburg - Hamburger SV	4:1
05.09.19	Wolfsburg - Hamburger SV	1:1
German Bundesliga
28.04.18	Wolfsburg - Hamburger SV	1:3
09.12.17	Hamburger SV - Wolfsburg	0:0
20.05.17	Hamburger SV - Wolfsburg	2:1
21.01.17	Wolfsburg - Hamburger SV	1:0

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