Match Info

Bundesliga - Round 27

Date: 21 March 2026, Saturday

Location: Voith-Arena (Heidenheim)

Referee: Braun R. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Heidenheim		Bayer Leverkusen

	1	X	2
	5	4.5	1.55	Watch
	4.75	4.4	1.61
	5.4	4.7	1.55	Watch
	5.83	4.8	1.54
	5.3	4.66	1.59	Watch
	5	4.2	1.53
	5.18	4.66	1.61	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.21 ↓ (5.24)	4.56 ↑ (4.43)	1.57 (1.57)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Heidenheim
18.3%

Draw
20.9%

Bayer Leverkusen
60.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

18.1%

21.4%

60.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

17.6%

20.8%

62.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Heidenheim has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.2%)

Bayer Leverkusen has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Heidenheim than the current prediction. (-0.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bayer Leverkusen than the current prediction. (+1.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
10.9%	10.9%	78.2%

Heidenheim - Bayer Leverkusen Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 50%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Bayer Leverkusen will win (43 of 54 users predict this - 79.63%).
Confidence interval (95%): 68.89% – 90.37%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Bayer Leverkusen will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
41. Ramaj D. (G) 2. Busch M. 6. Mainka P. (C) 5. Gimber B. 26. Behrens H. 20. Kerber L. 3. Schoppner J. 30. Dorsch N. 8. Dinkci E. 11. Zivzivadze B. 10. Conteh C.	1. Flekken M. (G) 42. Culbreath M. 4. Quansah J. 8. Andrich R. (C) 20. Grimaldo A. 25. Palacios E. 24. Garcia A. 30. Maza I. 10. Tillman M. 19. Poku E. 14. Schick P.
Substitutes
21. Beck A. 31. Conteh S. 40. Feller F. (G) 19. Fohrenbach J. 17. Honsak M. 16. Niehues J. 18. Pieringer M. 9. Schimmer S. 23. Traore O. H.	28. Blaswich J. (G) 6. Fernandez E. 7. Hofmann J. 35. Kofane C. 15. Oermann T. 18. Omlin J. (G) 16. Tape A. 23. Tella N. 11. Terrier M.
Coaches
Schmidt F.	Hjulmand K.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
22', 0 - 1, Tillman M. ⚽, Garcia A. (A),
25', Schoppner J. 🟨,
35', 0 - 2, Schick P. ⚽, Grimaldo A. (A),
39', Schick P. 🟨,
2nd Half (3 - 1)
46', Poku E. ↓, Terrier M. ↑,
46', Schoppner J. ↓, Niehues J. ↑,
46', Gimber B. ↓, Fohrenbach J. ↑,
54', Terrier M. ↓, Tella N. ↑,
56', 1 - 2, Behrens H. ⚽, Busch M. (A),
64', Kerber L. 🟨,
65', Conteh C. ↓, Conteh S. ↑,
65', Kerber L. ↓, Pieringer M. ↑,
72', 2 - 2, Pieringer M. (Penalty Awarded),
74', Garcia A. 🟨,
79', 2 - 3, Schick P. ⚽, Grimaldo A. (A),
82', Garcia A. ↓, Fernandez E. ↑,
83', Tillman M. ↓, Oermann T. ↑,
83', Maza I. 🟨,
84', Dorsch N. ↓, Beck A. ↑,
85', 3 - 3, Pieringer M. ⚽, Beck A. (A),
87', Andrich R. ↓, Kofane C. ↑,
89', Quansah J. 🟨,
90', Beck A. 🟨,
90+7', Busch M. 🟨,

Preview

An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation ~ 2. Bundesliga and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Heidenheim won 0.

Heidenheim is going through a poor run of results (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Bayer has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Bayer may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Bayer is a strong favorite.

There will not play in Heidenheim: Kaufmann M. (Muscle Injury) Paqarada L. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Bayer: Arthur (Ankle Injury) Bade L. (Muscle Injury) Ben Seghir E. (Ankle Injury) Lucas (Calf Injury) Tapsoba E. (Yellow Cards)

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Heidenheim won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 6:19. (average 1:3.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Heidenheim won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 3:4. (average 1:1.3).

Outrights of German Bundesliga for now

Bayer Leverkusen: 3.01%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
5	Bayer Leverkusen	4	2	1	1	10:5	5	7

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- 1. FC Heidenheim 1846
German Bundesliga
14.03.26	Eintracht Frankfurt - Heidenheim	1:0 ✺
07.03.26	Heidenheim - Hoffenheim	2:4 ✺
28.02.26	Werder Bremen - Heidenheim	2:0 ✺
22.02.26	Heidenheim - Stuttgart	3:3 ✺
15.02.26	Augsburg - Heidenheim	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.6 LLLTL
- Bayer Leverkusen
UEFA Champions League
17.03.26	Arsenal - Bayer Leverkusen	2:0 ✺
German Bundesliga
14.03.26	Bayer Leverkusen - Bayern Munich	1:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
11.03.26	Bayer Leverkusen - Arsenal	1:1 ✺
German Bundesliga
07.03.26	Freiburg - Bayer Leverkusen	3:3 ✺
04.03.26	Hamburger SV - Bayer Leverkusen	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.6 LTTTW

Latest Head to Head

German Bundesliga
08.11.25	Bayer Leverkusen - Heidenheim	6:0
05.04.25	Heidenheim - Bayer Leverkusen	0:1
23.11.24	Bayer Leverkusen - Heidenheim	5:2
17.02.24	Heidenheim - Bayer Leverkusen	1:2
24.09.23	Bayer Leverkusen - Heidenheim	4:1
German DFB Pokal
05.02.19	Heidenheim - Bayer Leverkusen	2:1

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