Match Info

Bundesliga - Round 25

Date: 7 March 2026, Saturday

Location: Europa-Park Stadion (Freiburg)

Referee: Brand B. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	CANAL+ Sport 1, Startimes World Football, ZAP
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World	Onefootball


	Freiburg		Bayer Leverkusen

	1	X	2
	2.9	3.4	2.4	Watch
	2.87	3.4	2.37
	2.98	3.35	2.42	Watch
	3.07	3.5	2.43
	3.03	3.55	2.38	Watch
	2.88	3.25	2.3
	3.09	3.56	2.43	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.97 ↓ (3.07)	3.43 ↓ (3.54)	2.39 ↑ (2.25)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 1.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Freiburg
32.1%

Draw
27.9%

Bayer Leverkusen
40%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

30.9%

26.8%

42.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

30.5%

26.5%

42.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Freiburg has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.2%)

Bayer Leverkusen has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Freiburg than the current prediction. (-1.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bayer Leverkusen than the current prediction. (+2.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
23.1%	30.8%	46.2%

Freiburg - Bayer Leverkusen Predictions

Users Predictions: 26 users predict this event. Freiburg will win (votes: 6 - 23.1%). Bayer will win (votes: 12 - 46.2%). It will Tie (votes: 8 - 30.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Bayer: 27% – 65.4%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.25 - Freiburg (1.79) (votes: 2 - 66.7%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 6 - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .

DC - Freiburg (1.59) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Bayer Leverkusen will win (4 of 5 users predict this - 80%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 9 Selected Experts predict this event. Freiburg (votes: 3 - 33.3%). Bayer (votes: 5 - 55.6%). Tie (votes: 1 - 11.1%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Atubolu N. (G) 29. Treu P. 28. Ginter M. 43. Ogbus B. 30. Gunter C. (C) 8. Eggestein M. 44. Manzambi J. 19. Beste J. 14. Suzuki Y. 32. Grifo V. 31. Matanovic I.	28. Blaswich J. (G) 4. Quansah J. 8. Andrich R. (C) 12. Tapsoba E. 19. Poku E. 6. Fernandez E. 24. Garcia A. 20. Grimaldo A. 11. Terrier M. 30. Maza I. 35. Kofane C.
Substitutes
27. Hofler N. 9. Holer L. 22. Irie C. 5. Jung A. 3. Lienhart P. 33. Makengo J. 21. Muller F. (G) 6. Osterhage P. 7. Scherhant D.	42. Culbreath M. 7. Hofmann J. 36. Lomb N. (G) 15. Oermann T. 18. Omlin J. (G) 47. Owen E. C. 25. Palacios E. 16. Tape A. 10. Tillman M.
Coaches
Schuster J.	Hjulmand K.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 2)
34', 1 - 0, Grifo V. ⚽, Gunter C. (A),
37', 1 - 1, Kofane C. ⚽, Terrier M. (A),
43', 2 - 1, Suzuki Y. ⚽, Treu P. (A),
45+3', 2 - 2, Grimaldo A. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
51', Grimaldo A. 🟨,
52', 2 - 3, Terrier M. ⚽, Kofane C. (A),
63', Grifo V. ↓, Scherhant D. ↑,
63', Gunter C. ↓, Makengo J. ↑,
66', Maza I. ↓, Tillman M. ↑,
70', Scherhant D. 🟨,
75', Terrier M. ↓, Culbreath M. ↑,
76', Beste J. ↓, Irie C. ↑,
76', Manzambi J. ↓, Holer L. ↑,
79', Irie C. 🟨,
83', Quansah J. 🟨,
83', Poku E. ↓, Oermann T. ↑,
83', Fernandez E. ↓, Palacios E. ↑,
86', 3 - 3, Ginter M. ⚽, Scherhant D. (A),
90+2', Andrich R. 🟨,
90+3', Gunter C. 🟨,

Preview

A great opportunity to watch a clash of neighbouring teams in the table (ranked 8 and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: ))

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Freiburg won 0.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Freiburg may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

There will not play in Freiburg: Kubler L. (Hamstring Injury) Kyereh D. (Lacking Match Fitness) Rosenfelder M. (Injury)

There will not play in Bayer: Arthur (Injury) Bade L. (Muscle Injury) Ben Seghir E. (Ankle Injury) Flekken M. (Injury) Lucas (Calf Injury) Tella N. (Injury)

There are questionable in Bayer: Schick P. (Muscle Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Freiburg won 4 matches, drew 7 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 21:35. (average 1.1:1.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Freiburg won 2 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 11:13. (average 1.2:1.4).

Outrights of German Bundesliga for now

Bayer Leverkusen: 3.01% Freiburg: 0.78%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Freiburg	4	3	1	0	12:3	9	10
5	Bayer Leverkusen	4	2	1	1	10:5	5	7

Last Results with these Odds

Freiburg - the odds 3.07 are the expected chance of winning is 30.94%, but this team recently wins 56% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SC Freiburg
German Bundesliga
01.03.26	Eintracht Frankfurt - Freiburg	2:0 ✺
22.02.26	Freiburg - Borussia Mönchengladbach	2:1 ✺
14.02.26	Hoffenheim - Freiburg	3:0 ✺
German DFB Pokal
10.02.26	Hertha Berlin - Freiburg	1:2 penalties ✺
German Bundesliga
07.02.26	Freiburg - Werder Bremen	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.1 LWLWW
- Bayer Leverkusen
German Bundesliga
04.03.26	Hamburger SV - Bayer Leverkusen	0:1 ✺
28.02.26	Bayer Leverkusen - Mainz	1:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
24.02.26	Bayer Leverkusen - Olympiacos Piraeus	0:0 ✺
German Bundesliga
21.02.26	Union Berlin - Bayer Leverkusen	1:0 ✺
UEFA Champions League
18.02.26	Olympiacos Piraeus - Bayer Leverkusen	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.6 WTTLW

Latest Head to Head

German Bundesliga
26.10.25	Bayer Leverkusen - Freiburg	2:0
04.05.25	Freiburg - Bayer Leverkusen	2:2
21.12.24	Bayer Leverkusen - Freiburg	5:1
17.03.24	Freiburg - Bayer Leverkusen	2:3
29.10.23	Bayer Leverkusen - Freiburg	2:1
26.02.23	Freiburg - Bayer Leverkusen	1:1
03.09.22	Bayer Leverkusen - Freiburg	2:3

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