What is the expert prediction for Freiburg vs Bayer Leverkusen?

Our statistical model provides live predictions including win probabilities and estimated scores for Freiburg vs Bayer Leverkusen. Follow the link for detailed analytics.

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Freiburg vs Bayer Leverkusen Predictions, H2H Stats & TV Channels (Saturday, March 07, 2026)

Match Info

Bundesliga - Round 25

Date: 7 March 2026, Saturday

Location: Europa-Park Stadion (Freiburg)

Referee: Brand B. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	CANAL+ Sport 1, Startimes World Football, ZAP
Albania	Tring Sport 3
Angola	Z Sports 2
Argentina	Disney+, ESPN
Asia	MBC Action
Australia	beIN Connect
Austria	Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Bundesliga 2
Belgium	Play Sports 1, Play Sports 2
Bolivia	ESPN
Bulgaria	Nova Sport, Play Diema Xtra
Canada	DAZN Canada, OneSoccer
Colombia	ESPN
Denmark	Viaplay
Ecuador	ESPN
Finland	Veikkaus TV, Viaplay 1 Urheilu, Viaplay
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 4, Free
Germany	DAZN Deutsch, Sky Go Germany, Sky Sport Bundesliga 2, WOW
Greece	Nova Sports 3
Hong-kong	beIN Sports 2, M Plus Live, Now Player
Iceland	Viaplay
India	Sony LIV, Vision+
Indonesia	K-Vision, MNC Soccer Channel
Japan	DAZN Japan
Laos	beIN Connect
Malaysia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3, Sooka
Malta	GO TV, TSN Malta 2
Mexico	Izzi TV, Sky Sport
Mongolia	Premier Sports 4
Netherlands	Viaplay
New-zealand	beIN Connect
North-central-america	Sky Sports Norte
Norway	TV2 Play, Viaplay
Pakistan	Tapmad
Paraguay	ESPN
Peru	Disney+, ESPN
Philippines	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Poland	Eleven Sports 1, Eleven Sports 2
Portugal	DAZN 2, DAZN / App
Romania	Digi Online, Digi Sport 2, Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 4, Prima TV
Russia	Okko Sport
Saudi-arabia	MBC Shahid
Serbia	Arena Premium 5
Singapore	beIN Sports 3
Slovenia	Sport TV1
South-korea	Coupang Play
Spain	DAZN Espana
Sweden	Viaplay
Switzerland	Sky Sport Bundesliga 2
Thailand	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3, PPTV Sports
Turkey	S Sport+, Tivibu Spor 2
Ukraine	Kyivstar TV, Setanta Sports
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	ESPN App, ESPN+
Venezuela	Disney+, ESPN, Inter
Vietnam	TV 360
World	Onefootball


	Freiburg		Bayer Leverkusen

	1	X	2
	2.9	3.4	2.4	Watch
	2.87	3.4	2.37
	2.98	3.35	2.42	Watch
	3.07	3.5	2.43
	3.03	3.55	2.38	Watch
	2.88	3.25	2.3
	3.09	3.56	2.43	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.97 ↓ (3.07)	3.43 ↓ (3.54)	2.39 ↑ (2.25)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 1.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Freiburg
32.1%

Draw
27.9%

Bayer Leverkusen
40%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

30.9%

26.8%

42.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

30.5%

26.5%

42.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Freiburg has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.2%)

Bayer Leverkusen has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Freiburg than the current prediction. (-1.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bayer Leverkusen than the current prediction. (+2.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
23.1%	30.8%	46.2%

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Predictions

Users Predictions: 26 users predict this event. Freiburg will win (votes: 6 - 23.1%). Bayer will win (votes: 12 - 46.2%). It will Tie (votes: 8 - 30.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Bayer: 27% – 65.4%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.25 - Freiburg (1.79) (votes: 2 - 66.7%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 6 - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

DC - Freiburg (1.59) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Bayer Leverkusen will win (4 of 5 users predict this - 80%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 9 Selected Experts predict this event. Freiburg (votes: 3 - 33.3%). Bayer (votes: 5 - 55.6%). Tie (votes: 1 - 11.1%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Atubolu N. (G) 29. Treu P. 28. Ginter M. 43. Ogbus B. 30. Gunter C. (C) 8. Eggestein M. 44. Manzambi J. 19. Beste J. 14. Suzuki Y. 32. Grifo V. 31. Matanovic I.	28. Blaswich J. (G) 4. Quansah J. 8. Andrich R. (C) 12. Tapsoba E. 19. Poku E. 6. Fernandez E. 24. Garcia A. 20. Grimaldo A. 11. Terrier M. 30. Maza I. 35. Kofane C.
Substitutes
27. Hofler N. 9. Holer L. 22. Irie C. 5. Jung A. 3. Lienhart P. 33. Makengo J. 21. Muller F. (G) 6. Osterhage P. 7. Scherhant D.	42. Culbreath M. 7. Hofmann J. 36. Lomb N. (G) 15. Oermann T. 18. Omlin J. (G) 47. Owen E. C. 25. Palacios E. 16. Tape A. 10. Tillman M.
Coaches
Schuster J.	Hjulmand K.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 2)
34', 1 - 0, Grifo V. ⚽, Gunter C. (A),
37', 1 - 1, Kofane C. ⚽, Terrier M. (A),
43', 2 - 1, Suzuki Y. ⚽, Treu P. (A),
45+3', 2 - 2, Grimaldo A. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
51', Grimaldo A. 🟨,
52', 2 - 3, Terrier M. ⚽, Kofane C. (A),
63', Grifo V. ↓, Scherhant D. ↑,
63', Gunter C. ↓, Makengo J. ↑,
66', Maza I. ↓, Tillman M. ↑,
70', Scherhant D. 🟨,
75', Terrier M. ↓, Culbreath M. ↑,
76', Beste J. ↓, Irie C. ↑,
76', Manzambi J. ↓, Holer L. ↑,
79', Irie C. 🟨,
83', Quansah J. 🟨,
83', Poku E. ↓, Oermann T. ↑,
83', Fernandez E. ↓, Palacios E. ↑,
86', 3 - 3, Ginter M. ⚽, Scherhant D. (A),
90+2', Andrich R. 🟨,
90+3', Gunter C. 🟨,

Preview

A great opportunity to watch a clash of neighbouring teams in the table (ranked 8 and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: ))

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Freiburg won 0.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Freiburg may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

There will not play in Freiburg: Kubler L. (Hamstring Injury) Kyereh D. (Lacking Match Fitness) Rosenfelder M. (Injury)

There will not play in Bayer: Arthur (Injury) Bade L. (Muscle Injury) Ben Seghir E. (Ankle Injury) Flekken M. (Injury) Lucas (Calf Injury) Tella N. (Injury)

There are questionable in Bayer: Schick P. (Muscle Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Freiburg won 4 matches, drew 7 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 21:35. (average 1.1:1.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Freiburg won 2 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 11:13. (average 1.2:1.4).

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Last Results with these Odds

Freiburg - the odds 3.07 are the expected chance of winning is 30.94%, but this team recently wins 60% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SC Freiburg
German Bundesliga
01.03.26	Eintracht Frankfurt - Freiburg	2:0 ✺
22.02.26	Freiburg - Borussia Mönchengladbach	2:1 ✺
14.02.26	Hoffenheim - Freiburg	3:0 ✺
German DFB Pokal
10.02.26	Hertha Berlin - Freiburg	1:2 penalties ✺
German Bundesliga
07.02.26	Freiburg - Werder Bremen	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.1 LWLWW
- Bayer Leverkusen
German Bundesliga
04.03.26	Hamburger SV - Bayer Leverkusen	0:1 ✺
28.02.26	Bayer Leverkusen - Mainz	1:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
24.02.26	Bayer Leverkusen - Olympiacos Piraeus	0:0 ✺
German Bundesliga
21.02.26	Union Berlin - Bayer Leverkusen	1:0 ✺
UEFA Champions League
18.02.26	Olympiacos Piraeus - Bayer Leverkusen	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.6 WTTLW

Latest Head to Head

German Bundesliga
26.10.25	Bayer Leverkusen - Freiburg	2:0
04.05.25	Freiburg - Bayer Leverkusen	2:2
21.12.24	Bayer Leverkusen - Freiburg	5:1
17.03.24	Freiburg - Bayer Leverkusen	2:3
29.10.23	Bayer Leverkusen - Freiburg	2:1
26.02.23	Freiburg - Bayer Leverkusen	1:1
03.09.22	Bayer Leverkusen - Freiburg	2:3

Freiburg - Bayer Leverkusen: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide