Match Info

Bundesliga - Round 23

Date: 21 February 2026, Saturday

Location: Volkswagen Arena (Wolfsburg)

Referee: Schlager D. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Wolfsburg		Augsburg

	1	X	2
	2.2	3.4	3.2	Watch
	2.28	3.35	3.15	Watch
	2.13	3.4	3.78
	2.2	3.47	3.29	Watch
	2.2	3.25	3.1
	2.26	3.5	3.3	Watch
	2.1	3.2	3.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.2 ↑ (2.06)	3.37 ↑ (3.24)	3.37 ↓ (3.88)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Wolfsburg
43.4%

Draw
28.3%

Augsburg
28.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46.2%

29.3%

24.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.4%

30.7%

23.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Wolfsburg has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.8%)

Augsburg has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Wolfsburg than the current prediction. (+5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Augsburg than the current prediction. (-4.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
33.3%	30%	36.7%

Wolfsburg - Augsburg Predictions

Users Predictions: 30 users predict this event. Wolfsburg will win (votes: 10 - 33.3%). Augsburg will win (votes: 11 - 36.7%). It will Tie (votes: 9 - 30%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Augsburg: 19.5% – 53.9%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Augsburg (votes: 2 - 40%). Tie (votes: 3 - 60%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DNB - Augsburg (2.37) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Augsburg (1.71) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -0.25 - Wolfsburg (1.88) (votes: 1 - 50%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 9 Selected Experts predict this event. Wolfsburg (votes: 1 - 11.1%). Augsburg (votes: 5 - 55.6%). Tie (votes: 3 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Grabara K. (G) 26. Kumbedi S. 3. Vavro D. 15. Jenz M. 6. Belocian J. 24. Eriksen C. 31. Gerhardt Y. (C) 11. Daghim A. 10. Majer L. 32. Svanberg M. 9. Amoura M.	1. Dahmen F. (G) 40. Banks N. 31. Schlotterbeck K. (C) 16. Zesiger C. 19. Fellhauer R. 17. Jakic K. 4. Massengo H. 13. Giannoulis D. 36. Komur M. 20. Claude-Maurice A. 21. Ribeiro R.
Substitutes
18. Adjetey J. 41. Burger J. 37. Hensel P. 4. Koulierakis K. 29. Muller M. (G) 40. Paredes K. 17. Pejcinovic D. 7. Shiogai K. 5. Vini Souza	34. Arthur Chaves 38. Gregoritsch M. 30. Kade A. 14. Keitel Y. 22. Labrovic N. (G) 39. Ogundu U. 8. Rexhbecaj E. 32. Rieder F. 27. Wolf M.
Coaches
Bauer D.	Baum M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
17', Majer L. 🟨,
41', 1 - 0, Gerhardt Y. ⚽, Eriksen C. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 3)
50', Ribeiro R. 🟨,
55', Schlotterbeck K. 🟨,
58', Komur M. ↓, Rieder F. ↑,
59', 1 - 1, Ribeiro R. ⚽, Claude-Maurice A. (A),
64', Svanberg M. 🟨,
65', Majer L. ↓, Shiogai K. ↑,
65', Svanberg M. ↓, Paredes K. ↑,
68', Massengo H. ↓, Rexhbecaj E. ↑,
69', Giannoulis D. ↓, Wolf M. ↑,
70', 2 - 1, Shiogai K. ⚽, Amoura M. (A),
81', Ribeiro R. ↓, Gregoritsch M. ↑,
81', Fellhauer R. ↓, Ogundu U. ↑,
82', Amoura M. ↓, Pejcinovic D. ↑,
86', Jakic K. 🟨,
87', 2 - 2, Gregoritsch M. (Penalty Awarded),
90+3', 2 - 3, Rexhbecaj E. ⚽, Claude-Maurice A. (A),
90+5', Kumbedi S. ↓, Burger J. ↑,
90+5', Vavro D. ↓, Adjetey J. ↑,
90+8', Gregoritsch M. 🟨,

Preview

A mid-table team and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 15 and 11).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Wolfsburg won 0.

Wolfsburg is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Augsburg is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Wolfsburg will hold a modest advantage in this match.

There will not play in Wolfsburg: Cleiton (Ankle Injury) Dardai B. (Knee Injury) Fischer K. (Thigh Injury) Lindstrom J. (Illness) Maehle J. (Shoulder Injury) Rogerio (Muscle Injury) Seelt J. (Illness) Wimmer P. (Muscle Injury) Wind J. (Thigh Injury)

There will not play in Augsburg: Gouweleeuw J. (Knee Injury) Matsima C. (Muscle Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Wolfsburg won 6 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 30:26. (average 1.5:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Wolfsburg won 2 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 14:9. (average 1.6:1).

Outrights of German Bundesliga for now

Augsburg: 0.26%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Augsburg	4	2	1	1	11:6	5	7

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- VfL Wolfsburg
German Bundesliga
15.02.26	RB Leipzig - Wolfsburg	2:2 ✺
07.02.26	Wolfsburg - Borussia Dortmund	1:2 ✺
30.01.26	Köln - Wolfsburg	1:0 ✺
24.01.26	Mainz - Wolfsburg	3:1 ✺
17.01.26	Wolfsburg - Heidenheim	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.8 TLLLT
- FC Augsburg
German Bundesliga
15.02.26	Augsburg - Heidenheim	1:0 ✺
07.02.26	Mainz - Augsburg	2:0 ✺
31.01.26	Augsburg - St. Pauli	2:1 ✺
24.01.26	Bayern Munich - Augsburg	1:2 ✺
18.01.26	Augsburg - Freiburg	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 41.2 WLWWT

Latest Head to Head

German Bundesliga
04.10.25	Augsburg - Wolfsburg	3:1
15.03.25	Augsburg - Wolfsburg	1:0
02.11.24	Wolfsburg - Augsburg	1:1
16.03.24	Wolfsburg - Augsburg	1:3
28.10.23	Augsburg - Wolfsburg	3:2
01.04.23	Wolfsburg - Augsburg	2:2
Club Friendly
14.01.23	Augsburg - Wolfsburg	1:0

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