Match Info

EUROPE: Champions League - League phase - Round 4

Date: 6 November 2024, Wednesday 🏁 Finished

Location: Allianz Arena (Munich) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Massa D. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Africa	—	DStv Now, New World Sport 3, New World Sport App, SuperSport Variety 1
Argentina	17:00	FOX Sports 2
Armenia	00:00	Fast Sports
Asia	—	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 4, TOD
Australia	07:00	Stan Sport
Austria	21:00	Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Austria 2
Belgium	21:00	Pickx+ Sports 3, Pickx+ Sports 3, Play Sports 1, Play Sports 4
Bosnia And Herzegovina	21:00	Arena Sport 3, Moja TV
Brazil	17:00	Claro TV+, Max, Sky+, Space, Space, Vivo Play, Zapping
Bulgaria	22:00	Ring, Voyo
Canada	15:00	DAZN Canada
China	04:00	iQIYI, QQ Sports
Croatia	21:00	Arena Sport 4, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	22:00	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 6
Czech Republic	21:00	Nova Sport 5
Denmark	21:00	TV3 Sport, Viaplay
Finland	22:00	MTV Katsomo, MTV Katsomo+
France	21:00	Canal+ Live 4
Georgia	00:00	Silk Sport 2
Germany	21:00	DAZN 1 Bar Deutsch, DAZN 1 Deutsch
Greece	22:00	COSMOTE Sport 3
Hong Kong	04:00	beIN Sports 2
Hungary	21:00	RTL+, Sport 1
Iceland	20:00	Viaplay
India	01:30	Sony LIV, Sony Sports TEN 1
Indonesia	03:00	beIN Connect
Ireland	20:00	Virgin Media Player
Italy	21:00	NOW TV, Sky Sport 254
Kosovo	21:00	ART Motion Sport 1
Laos	03:00	beIN Connect
Malta	21:00	GO TV, TSN Malta 3
Mexico	14:00	Caliente TV
Myanmar	02:30	Canal+ Myanmar
Netherlands	21:00	Ziggo Sport 5
New Zealand	09:00	DAZN New Zealand
North Macedonia	21:00	MaxTV GO
Norway	21:00	TV2 Play
Pakistan	01:00	Tapmad
Papua New Guinea	06:00	TVWan Sports
Philippines	04:00	beIN Connect
Poland	21:00	Canal+ Extra 3
Portugal	20:00	Sport TV5
Romania	22:00	Digi Online, Digi Sport 3, Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 3
Russia	23:00	Okko Sport
Slovakia	21:00	Voyo
Slovenia	21:00	SportKlub 3
South Africa	22:00	Supersport Maximo 1 Champions
South America	—	ESPN 6 South, ViX Latin America
South Korea	05:00	SPOTV Prime 2
Spain	21:00	M+ Liga de Campeones 5, Movistar Plus+ 1
Sweden	21:00	Viaplay
Switzerland	21:00	Blue Sport 1, Blue Sport 1, Blue Sport 4, Blue Sport 4
Thailand	03:00	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 4
Ukraine	22:00	MEGOGO Futbol 4
United Kingdom	20:00	Discovery+ UK, TNT Sports 2, Virgin Media More
Usa	15:00	CBS, Paramount+
Venezuela	16:00	Inter
Vietnam	03:00	TV 360
International	20:00	Disney+, JioTV app, Prima+ app, Virgin TV Go app


	Bayern Munich		Benfica

	1	X	2
	1.29	5.75	9.5
	1.28	6.25	9.5
	1.28	6.6	9.9	Watch
	1.28	6.54	9.93
	1.3	6.37	9.27	Watch
	1.29	6	10
	1.3	6.45	10.5
	1.28	6.6	9.9
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.29 ↓ (1.34)	6.32 ↑ (5.91)	9.81 ↑ (7.8)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.50

The best margin for this event is 2%, offered by

Watch this match and UEFA Champions League with fuboTV (for US customers)

Network on TV: CBSSN

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Current Win Probability

Bayern Munich
74.9%

Draw
15.3%

Benfica
9.8%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

71.5%

16.2%

12.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

67.7%

15.3%

13%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Bayern Munich has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.4%)

Benfica has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Bayern Munich than the current prediction. (-7.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Bayern Munich that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Benfica than the current prediction. (+3.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
88.5%	3.1%	8.3%

Bayern Munich - Benfica Predictions

Users Predictions: Bayern Munich will win (85 of 95 users predict this - 89.47%).
Confidence interval (95%): 83.3% – 95.64%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Neuer M. (C) 6. Kimmich J. 3. Kim Min-Jae 2. Upamecano D. 19. Davies A. 16. Palhinha J. 27. Laimer K. 7. Gnabry S. 42. Musiala J. 17. Olise M. 9. Kane H.	1. Trubin A. (G) 28. Kabore I. 44. Araujo T. 30. Otamendi N. (C) 4. Silva A. 3. Carreras A. 10. Kokcu O. 85. Sanches R. 8. Aursnes F. 17. Akturkoglu K. 7. Amdouni Z.
Substitutes
11. Coman K. 15. Dier E. 8. Goretzka L. 22. Guerreiro R. 20. Ibrahimovic A. 25. Muller T. 18. Peretz D. (G) 10. Sane L. 35. Schmitt M. (G) 39. Tel M.	81. Bajrami A. 37. Beste J. 9. Cabral A. 11. Di Maria A. 61. Florentino 75. Gomes A. (G) 14. Pavlidis V. 32. Rollheiser B. 71. Santos L. 21. Schjelderup A. 24. Soares S. (G)
Coaches
Kompany V.	Lage B.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
26', Kabore I. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Amdouni Z. ↓, Pavlidis V. ↑,
46', Kabore I. ↓, Beste J. ↑,
56', Akturkoglu K. ↓, Di Maria A. ↑,
56', Olise M. ↓, Sane L. ↑,
67', 1 - 0, Musiala J. ⚽, Kane H. (A),
71', Kokcu O. 🟨,
72', Gnabry S. ↓, Coman K. ↑,
73', Musiala J. 🟨,
79', Kokcu O. ↓, Cabral A. ↑,
86', Sanches R. ↓, Rollheiser B. ↑,
90+2', Musiala J. ↓, Muller T. ↑,

Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches Bayern won 4.

At the moment teams are feeling good and ready to play.

In this match Bayern is indisputable favorite.

There will not play in Bayern: Boey S. (Knee Injury) Buchmann T. (Muscle Injury) Ito H. (Foot Injury) Pavlovic A. (Broken collarbone) Stanisic J. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Benfica: Bah A. (Injury) Barreiro L. (Thigh Injury) Gouveia T. (Shoulder Injury) Prestianni G. (Ankle Injury)

Last 6 head-to-head matches Bayern won 5 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 19:5 (average 3.2:0.8).

Including matches at home between the teams Bayern won 3 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 11:3 (average 3.7:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Bayern Munich
German Bundesliga
02.11.24	Bayern Munich - Union Berlin	3:0 ✺
German DFB Pokal
30.10.24	Mainz - Bayern Munich	0:4 ✺
German Bundesliga
27.10.24	Bochum - Bayern Munich	0:5 ✺
UEFA Champions League
23.10.24	Barcelona - Bayern Munich	4:1 ✺
German Bundesliga
19.10.24	Bayern Munich - Stuttgart	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.1 WWWLW
- SL Benfica
Liga Portugal
02.11.24	Farense - Benfica	1:2 ✺
Portuguese League Cup
30.10.24	Benfica - Santa Clara	3:0 ✺
Liga Portugal
27.10.24	Benfica - Rio Ave	5:0 ✺
UEFA Champions League
23.10.24	Benfica - Feyenoord	1:3 ✺
Taça de Portugal
19.10.24	Pevidem - Benfica	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.6 WWWLW

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Champions League
02.11.21	Bayern Munich - Benfica	5:2
20.10.21	Benfica - Bayern Munich	0:4
27.11.18	Bayern Munich - Benfica	5:1
19.09.18	Benfica - Bayern Munich	0:2
13.04.16	Benfica - Bayern Munich	2:2
05.04.16	Bayern Munich - Benfica	1:0

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