Match Info

PORTUGAL: LIGA 3 - ROUND 22

Date: 11 March 2023, Saturday


	Belenenses		Alverca

	1	X	2
	2.37	3.1	2.65
	2.4	3.1	2.7
	2.39	3.15	2.7
	2.78	3.29	2.63
	2.56	3.18	2.62
	2.41	3.15	2.7
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.49 ↑ (2.22)	3.16 ↓ (3.17)	2.67 ↓ (3.16)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Belenenses
36.8%

Draw
28.9%

Alverca
34.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.6%

29.2%

29.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.2%

30.3%

28.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Belenenses has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.8%)

Alverca has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Belenenses than the current prediction. (+6.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Belenenses, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Alverca than the current prediction. (-6.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Alverca, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

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Preview

Alverca is Qualified for Liga 3 (Promotion Group)

Belenenses is in undoubted good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Alverca in the last match got series victories and it is in a very good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Alverca could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

The chances to win of two teams are almost the same in this match.

Last 1 head-to-head matches Belenenses won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 0-1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Os Belenenses
Portuguese Liga 3
05.03.23	Setúbal - Belenenses	5:2 ✺
25.02.23	Belenenses - Moncarapachense	2:1 ✺
19.02.23	Caldas - Belenenses	0:1 ✺
11.02.23	Belenenses - Fontinhas	6:0 ✺
05.02.23	Sporting Lisbon B - Belenenses	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.1 LWWWW
- FC Alverca
Portuguese Liga 3
03.03.23	Alverca - Real SC	2:1 ✺
25.02.23	Académica Coimbra - Alverca	1:2 ✺
18.02.23	Oliveira Hospital - Alverca	1:1 ✺
12.02.23	Alverca - Setúbal	2:0 ✺
04.02.23	Moncarapachense - Alverca	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.5 WWTWW

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 3
04.12.22	Alverca - Belenenses	1:0

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